10 dma Monday 1/5/15 Tuesday 1/6/15 Inflows interrupted correction.

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Presentation transcript:

10 dma Monday 1/5/15

Tuesday 1/6/15

Inflows interrupted correction

Somebody has to make a mistake 1)The collapsing oil price does not signal a looming economic collapse in a major economy or economic region. 2)The negative effects for the US energy sector are outweighed by the benefits to the rest of the economy. 3)US banks have limited exposure to the oil and gas sector and so the risk of contagion to the banking sector is limited.

1. This is a bursting commodities bubble, not a recession. Growth is mediocre, not crashing.

That’s why our edge is all about… (weeks and months) Short term mood swings (weeks and months) (months and years) Buying power and selling pressure in the stock market for the real story (months and years) (1-3 year time frame) The Fed (1-3 year time frame) (5 year time frame) Economic alliances and international economic themes (5 year time frame) ( year cycles) Societal transformation ( year cycles)