Climate Change, Uncertainty and Forecasts of Global to Landscape Ecosystem Dynamics Ron Neilson Leader, MAPSS Team USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station Corvallis, Oregon (541)

PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX FORECAST JULY-SEPTEMBER 2007 AVERAGED ACROSS ALL FIVE WEATHER FORECASTS OBSERVED WEATHER PERIOD: thru APR 2007 FORECAST WEATHER PERIOD: MAY thru NOV 2007

OBSERVED WEATHER PERIOD: thru MAR 2007 FORECAST WEATHER PERIOD: APR thru OCT 2007 MC1 DGVM FIRE RISK CONSENSUS FORECAST JANUARY-OCTOBER 2007 NUMBER OF WEATHER FORECASTS RESULTING IN FIRE OCCURRENCE

OBSERVED WEATHER PERIOD: thru MAR 2007 FORECAST WEATHER PERIOD: APR thru OCT 2007 TOTAL ACRES BURNED: 1,940,458 ACRES MC1 DGVM FIRE RISK CONSENSUS FORECAST JANUARY-OCTOBER 2007 ACRES BURNED

Future Climate Managing for Change with Uncertainty Multi-Scale Assessment (Persistent, Ongoing) –Global to Local Scales –Near to Long Term Scales Natural Climate Variability – Near term Variability vs. Long term trends Historical Management Legacy – e.g., Fire Suppression Natural Resources and Issues of Concern –What – Biodiversity – Vegetation Type and Species Distribution –Function -- Global Carbon Balance – Sources and Sinks, Forest Productivity –How Change? – Catastrophic Disturbance, e.g. Fire and Infestation Management Of Change, per se –Perpetual Uncertainty –Toolbox for Managers

Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature: 1000 to to 1861, N. Hemisphere, proxy data; 1861 to 2000 Global, Instrumental; 2000 to 2100, SRES projections Uncertainty is due to both Emissions Scenarios and Climate Models Similar to Glacial – Interglacial Temperature Change But note the slope of Past Compared to Future Temperature Change

Temperature difference: vs A2 B1 A1B MIROC MEDRES CSIRO MK3 The Low End of Some Models Is as High as The High End of Other Models

Percent Change Precipitation: vs MIROC MEDRES CSIRO MK3 A2 B1 A1B The Uncertainties are Often Greater Between Climate Models Than between Emissions Scenarios!

Gt/yr Carbon Sink Source A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems Scholze et al Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. LPJ DGVM 16 Climate Scenarios Early Greenup Later Browndown Global Simulated Ecosystem Carbon Change (Pg) MAPSS Team, In Prep. Gt Carbon Sink Source MC1 DGVM 3 Climate Scenarios

Percent Change in Biomass Burned MAPSS Team, In Prep. CSIRO_MK3 A2 Fire Increases Across the Western U.S. But, Look at the Boreal Forest

Percent Change in Total Ecosystem Carbon MAPSS Team, In Prep. CSIRO_MK3 A2 What will happen to Timber and Carbon Markets? Markets Influence Adaptation The West Sequesters Carbon!

Current ClimateFuture Climate (CGCM1) MAPSS Simulated Vegetation Distribution Future Woody and Grass Expansion in the West Enhance Carbon Storage, and Catastrophic Wildfire, But…

Average Biomass Burned CGCM2a ( ) In the Future The West gets Woodier, and It burns a lot more!... But, look at the East!

Red = + Fire Green = - Fire Changes relative to Base Period 1961 – 1990 LPJ DGVM 16 Climate Scenarios Scholze et al Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. Different Ecological Model Different Climate Scenarios Same Changes in Fire

CGCM2-A2 Scenario Current Vegetation ( ) Suppressed Fire With Fire MC1 DGVM MAPSS Team, In Prep.

Forest Woodland Savanna Grassland VINCERA HADCM3-A2 Eastern Deciduous Forest Region

Temperate Deciduous Forest Temperate Deciduous Woodland Vegetation Classification High CO 2 Sensitivity, No Fire Suppression

Biomass Consumed By Fire (g C/m 2 ) Low CO 2 Sensitivity, No Fire Suppression

Total Live Vegetation Carbon (g C/m 2 ) High CO 2 Sensitivity, With Fire Suppression ‘Greening’ Processes Become Saturated Satellite Observed Greening

Total Live Vegetation Carbon (g C/m 2 ) High CO 2 Sensitivity, No Fire Suppression Persistent fire maintains young ecosystems, But changes vegetation to a different, quasi-stable state Satellite Observed Greening

Threshold Of Palmer Drought Severity Index Surrogate for Live Vegetation Moisture Dry Wet 1950s Drought Fire Ignition Trigger Future Climate Regime Shift Ignition Threshold

Threshold Of 1000-hr Moisture Content Evaporative Demand Increases Exponentially With Temperature Fire Ignition Trigger Ignition Threshold

Threshold of Fine Fuel Ignition (a function of 1 hr Fuel Moisture) Evaporative Demand Increases Exponentially With Temperature Fire Ignition Trigger Ignition Threshold

Management Toolbox Current management strategies presume the ‘status quo’ –the past is a good predictor of the future. Most Current modeling tools, e.g. FVS, TELSA and VDDT, cannot use climate. Re-build tools to be ‘climate smart’, yet to retain their ‘look and feel’. Reframe management strategies for a changing climate –add new field experiments –identify underlying assumptions –Re-examine regeneration, restoration techniques

Management Implications (personal musings) Management Goals face an uncertain Future –The Future will NOT echo the Past Instead,… Manage Change, per se –Desired function may supercede ‘Desired future condition’ Improve resilience of ecosystems to rapid change Possible strategies –Keep forest density below water-limited carrying capacity –Plant diversity as opposed to homogeneous monocultures –Use Plants as an Energy Source Fire, carbon, water and other policies may be at cross- purposes, demanding creative management of change

Total Ecosystem Carbon (g C/m 2 ) High CO 2 Sensitivity, With Fire Suppression ‘Greening’ Processes Become Saturated Satellite Observed Greening

Total Ecosystem Carbon (g C/m 2 ) High CO 2 Sensitivity, No Fire Suppression Persistent fire maintains young ecosystems, But gradually reduces soil carbon. Early Greenup – Later Browndown Satellite Observed Greening