Tribute to Paul Slovic SJDM 2015 It’s a Paul-abration!! Tribute to Paul Slovic SJDM 2015

Paul Slovic Founder and President of Decision Research Professor of Psychology, University of Oregon Past President, Society for Risk Analysis Distinguished Contribution Award, Society for Risk Analysis (1991) Distinguished Scientific Contribution Award from the American Psychological Association (1993) Outstanding Contribution to Science Award from the Oregon Academy of Science (1995) Honorary doctorate, Stockholm School of Economics (1996) Honorary doctorate, University of East Anglia (2005) Elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (2015) Paul received his PhD in psychology from the University of Michigan with Ward Edwards as his adviser. I remember him telling me that he cited the entire field of JDM in that dissertation, all 6 papers.

Over the years with Paul Working with him is a pleasure. I have learned more in twenty or so years than I could ever have imagined. He embodies the true scientist - curious, playful, analytical, hard-working, and extremely focused. He believes in the power of science and he applies that attitude to a wide variety of individual and social decisions. I can't imagine a better person with whom to work. On top of all that, Paul is simply the nicest person I know. When I was deciding about graduate school back in 1993, I ran across his bio and thought it looked interesting. I called him up and asked to meet, and he immediately made room for a meeting. We met for 2 hours, talking about what I thought were the most exciting things in the world. And then Paul sent ME a thank you note. I thought he was extraordinary. However, I didn’t know his academic reputation at the time and I called up my undergrad mentor, Eric Johnson, to check out Paul’s reputation. Needless to say, it was superb. And five years later, I was one of the few fortunate people who received a PhD with Paul Slovic as my adviser.

A leader in JDM Deep theoretical questions, often applied to important social problems Heuristics and biases Preference reversals and the construction of preference Public perception of risk and psychometric paradigm Affect Heuristic Paul was there at the very roots of our field and his influence has been extensive, cutting across universities, continents, theoretical questions, and important social issues. He was there at the beginning of the literature on heuristics and biases, with more recent contributions with the Affect Heuristic which will be discussed by Danny Kahneman and Melissa Finucane today. He won APA’s Distinguished Scientific Contribution Award in 1993 for his work with Sarah Lichtenstein and others on preference reversals and the construction of preferences. His work with Baruch Fischhoff and others on perceptions of risks as the public viewed them was a reaction to experts like engineers who looked at risks from a purely statistical point of view. Engineers saw that, relative to risks such as driving, the chances of dying from nuclear melt-down were very small and so therefore the risk was small and less important. However, Paul and Baruch and others painted a psychological picture of the human side of perceiving risks. The public does not view risk in the same manner as engineers. Some forms of death were simply considered worse than others and dread of such outcomes was considered at least as important as the statistical likelihood of them occurring. The degree to which people felt that they had control over a risk also influenced its acceptability as did whether the risk was imposed by a government (this is invariably less acceptable) or the risk was voluntarily undertaken, such as car driving. Trust in the institution managing the risk also helped to determine whether the risk was acceptable or not. These issues, of dread, control and trust, rapidly became the founding principles for a new academic discipline examining the perception of risk. In essence, Paul’s work showed that there was more to assessing risk than simply an expected body count. And this research has had long lasting and important impacts, including in highlighting the importance of our field to understanding to public policy. As Jon Baron emailed me recently “Implicit in this kind of research is the idea that citizens influence actual policies, so we can understand some of the apparent peculiarities of public policy by looking at the nature of human judgment.” Research on the importance of dreading risk led, in part, to Paul’s work on the Affect Heuristic and later to his research and thinking on psychophysical numbing and genocide that Daniel Vastfjall will discuss later.

A leader in JDM Applying science to important social problems Public risk perceptions Smoking

Paul painted a picture of smokers’ misery in his 2001 book Smoking He asked smokers, if you had to do it over again, would you start smoking? Almost every one of them said no because it’s a disgusting thing, I am short of breath, its hard for me to breath, I don’t know if I will see my kids grow up, the list of misery goes on. Max Bazerman pointed out statements by two of the world’s most influential practitioners: (CHERYL HEALTON) "This important book reveals why the young start smoking and why, as adults, they regret having started. It is a great contribution to helping end a national epidemic."  (MATTHEW MYERS) "This book is a must for everyone concerned about how to address the problem of tobacco use among young people. [It] includes the most objective, thorough and authoritative research to date on the critical question about whether young people fully understand the consequences of their decision to smoke at the time they start and whether they are able to make rational decisions about this vitally important decision. It leaves the reader with no doubt about the value of efforts to better educate our young people and to empower them to resist the lure of tobacco marketing."  Max Bazerman continued in his email to me to say: Without a doubt, the leading purveyor of the truth on the social science of tobacco issues has been Paul Slovic.  As a result of his efforts, an enormous number of lives have been saved.

A leader in JDM Applying science to important social problems Public perception of risk and psychometric paradigm Smoking Psychophysical numbing, compassion and genocide "If I look at the mass I will never act": Psychic numbing and genocide in JDM in 2007 Julie Irwin “an actual academic, working on important problems”

A leader in JDM What (I hope) I have learned from him Be curious. Paul has a deep, abiding, and playful curiosity Be collaborative Collaborative Great mentor A deep, abiding, and playful curiousity. Going through data and planning studies with him is a great joy. He’s also amazingly collaborative. This is an illustration of some of Paul’s main collaborators around the world.

The global influence of Paul Slovic

A leader in JDM What (I hope) I have learned from him Be curious Be collaborative Have concern and kindness for others in research and in more personal ways He’s not just collaborative though. On a daily basis, Paul shows a concern and kindness for others

This is a picture sent by Kazuya Nakayachi, the dean of Faculty of Psychology, Doshisha University, Japan. It’s the first page of an early draft that was published in Risk Analysis in 1998. He wrote “This was my first publication in an international journal. You will see the (illegible?) handwriting by Paul. Paul was kind enough to read the draft, to give me constructive comments, and to encourage me to continue researching in this area. This paper is still my treasure.”

A leader in JDM What (I hope) I have learned from him Be curious Be collaborative Have concern and kindness for others in research and in more personal ways Be a great mentor He goes on to say “I received the Best Paper Award for 2013 in Risk Analysis. I would like to dedicate it to Paul in token of gratitude for his invitation to this research field. I have never attended his class at the University of Oregon, but I feel like I am his student. I suppose there are plenty of researchers in the world who feel like me.” And, Paul, I have heard from many people who have expressed similar thoughts and thanks.

Howard Kunreuther (video) Danny Kahneman John Payne Melissa Finucane Baruch Fischhoff Howard Kunreuther (video) Danny Kahneman John Payne Melissa Finucane Bill Burns Daniel Vastfjall Scott Slovic (video) Bob O’Connor And, of course, Paul Slovic So let’s let the Paul-abration begin with a series of people who will talk about Paul, his impact on science, and his impact on them. Baruch?