Project Management in Practice Scheduling The Project

Outline: Project network diagrams Identifying critical paths and activities Determining activity slack times Gantt charts Working with Microsoft Project Uncertainty and risk management Simulation approach to managing risk Homework: 25, 27, 31

The Big Picture The Planning Process Scheduling Resource Allocation Project Conception Launch Meeting Action Plan WBS Project Master Schedule Scheduling Resource Allocation

The Big Picture Define Activities WBS Sequence Activities Estimate Activity Resources Estimate Activity Durations Develop Schedule Control Schedule

Project Scheduling Terms Activity Event Node Milestone Network Path Critical Path – The longest path through a network Critical Time

Task Predecessor a   b c d e f c,d g Network Diagrams f g e

Network Diagrams

Immediate Predecessor(s) Manual Network Example Activity Time Immediate Predecessor(s) A 1 none B 4 C 3 D 7 E 6 F 2 C,D G E,F H 9 I G,H

Manual Network Deterministic Examples Activity Time Pred(s) A 1   B 4 C 3 D 7 E 6 F 2 C,D G E,F H 9 I G,H Activity Time Pred(s) A 6   B 13 C 8 D 7 E 3 C,D F 4 G E,F H I 2 J

Project Description Notes: Project Table 5-3 Under View, Check Viewbar Under Tasks, define general working times, use the wizard to Standard time, 2) Select all 7 days use hours shown in preview, 3) omit, 4) Hrs/day=8, Hrs/wk=40, Days/month=30 Enter task names (a, b, c, etc.), durations, and predecessors as numbers. Under Tasks, add columns of custom information, to add ES, EF, LS, LF, and Total Slack (MSP will calculate these automatically) MSP Intro Example 1 of 4

Project Information & Network Layout Notes: Project Project Information Notes: Diagram, Format, Layout Allow manual box positioning Link style = Straight MSP Intro Example 2 of 4

Network Diagram Notes: Diagram, Format, Layout Allow manual box positioning Link style = Straight MSP Intro Example 3 of 4

Gantt Chart Notes: Format Gantt Chart Wizard MSP Intro Example 4 of 4

Project Uncertainty & Risk Management a, b certainty denominator 99% 6 95% 3.3 90% 2.6 Probabilistic / Stat Examples

Probability of Completing a Path by Time D Z = The number of standard deviations D is from m D = Analyzed project or path completion time m = the sum of the expected path durations Te along a particular path being investigated s = path standard deviation s2 = path variance =NORMSDIST(D, m, s, TRUE), (left area) cumulative probability Probabilistic / Stat Examples

Manual Network Probabilistic/Stochastic Example 99% Activity a m b Te Var 1 4 7 4.00 1.00 2 6 5.50 0.69 c 3 3.50 0.25 d 13 14 12.00 1.78 e 12 6.50 2.25 f 8 16 9.00 2.78 g 5 4.50 Paths E-Dur SD Z Prob b-c-e-g 20.00 1.97 0.51 69.40% a-d 16.00 1.67 3.00 99.87% a-e-g 15.00 1.99 3.02 b-f-g 19.00 2.04 0.98 83.64%   57.89% D 21 Probabilistic / Stat Examples

c f d g a b h e Project Uncertainty & Risk Management Example Chapter 5 Act Pred a m b Te Var   8 10 16 10.67 1.78 11 12 14 12.17 0.25 c 7 19 12.33 4.00 d 6 6.00 0.00 e 20 14.33 2.78 f c,d 9.33 0.44 g 5 17 10.33 h e,g 4 7.83 1.36 22.83 35.17 35.17 44.5 c f 25.33 37.67 37.67 47 0 10.67 10.67 22.83 22.83 28.83 28.83 39.17 d g a b 22.83 28.83 28.83 39.17 39.17 47 0 10.67 10.67 22.83 22.83 37.17 h e 39.17 47 24.83 39.17 Probabilistic / Stat Examples

Example Chapter 5 99% Act Pred a m b Te Var   8 10 16 10.67 1.78 11 12 14 12.17 0.25 c 7 19 12.33 4.00 d 6 6.00 0.00 e 20 14.33 2.78 f c,d 9.33 0.44 g 5 17 10.33 h e,g 4 7.83 1.36 Paths E-Dur SD Z Prob a-b-d-g-h 47.00 2.72 1.10 86.51% a-b-c-f 44.50 2.54 2.16 98.47% a-b-d-f 38.17 1.57 7.53 100.00% a-b-e-h 45.00 2.48 2.01 97.80% 83.31% D 50 What is the probability the project critical path will complete within 50 days? What is the probability the project will complete within 50 days? Follow on question: There is a 95% probability we will complete the critical path in how many days? Probabilistic / Stat Examples

Project Uncertainty & Risk Management Probabilistic / Stat Examples

Simulation a b c d e f g h Potential Path Completion Times 1000 Trials Act Pred min likely max a   8 10 16 b 11 12 14 c 7 19 d 6 e 20 f c,d g 5 17 h e,g 4 Paths Time a-b-d-g-h a-b-c-f a-b-d-f a-b-e-h Potential Path Completion Times 1000 Trials a b c d e f g h Potential Project Completion Time = ???

Simulation – Example Chapter 5 (Table 5-8) Project completion time for this particular step / trial

Simulation – Example Chapter 5

Simulation – Example Chapter 5 What is the probability the project will complete within 50 days?

Simulation – Example Chapter 5 There is a 95% probability we complete the project in about 54 days or less.

DynaTech Equipment Corp. case (45 minutes) Divide into small groups Exercise DynaTech Equipment Corp. case (45 minutes) Divide into small groups Read case (5 minutes) Assignment: (40 minutes) List the immediate predecessors and WBS number for each activity Draw project network diagram (lowest level) Draw Gantt chart Determine project completion time