European Climate Change Programme (ECCP II) Stakeholder Meeting 24 October 2005 Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) ● Current Situation ● Possible role of CCS ● Implications for CCS ● Conclusion Dr. Gabriela von Goerne

ECCP II - Stakeholder Meeting 24 October (S3) Gabriela von Goerne Current Situation Problem - climate change ● Temperature increase in Europe over the last 100 years is about 0.95°C – which is higher than global average. ● Change in summer precipitation annual precipitation trends over the last 100 years show that southern Europe has become up to 20% drier. ● Sea levels rise, Glaciers retreat, extreme weathers.... Main cause - GHG emissions ● GHG emissions are worldwide on the rise Energy-related CO 2 -emissions alone have increased from 21,8 Gt in 1990 to 27,5 Gt in 2004 ● EU15 – 1.4% below 1990 levels – nothing to be proud of EU25 emissions increase by 0.8% in ● To achieve -8% Kyoto-target, EU15 must reduce CO 2 by around 286 million tonnes in the coming years. Source: EEA – Impacts of Europe's changing climate Source: DIW 39/2005

ECCP II - Stakeholder Meeting 24 October (S3) Gabriela von Goerne Possible role of CCS - CCS? „There is relatively little experience in combining CO 2 capture, transport and storage into a fully integrated CCS system. The use of CCS for large- scale power plants still remains to be implemented.“ Source: IPCC SRCCS, SPM – approved September 25th, 2005 (page 11)... what does this mean? A number of measures / policies are in place, like - Renewable Energies (EU Parlament 20 (25)% in 2020) 17 October Energy Efficiency (End-Energy Efficiency Guideline) - Emissions Trading Keep global warming below 2°C to prevent dangerous climate change For achieving this target, GHG concentrations need to be stabilized at 450 ppm CO 2 equ. This requires global emissions to peak around 2015, followed by substantial reductions in the order of 30% (= 80% industrialised countries) compared to 1990 levels in 2050! Elzen & Meinshausen (2005) NEAA

ECCP II - Stakeholder Meeting 24 October (S3) Gabriela von Goerne Possible role of CCS CCS will not begin before 2020 and will not become commercially available as a possible effective mitigation option until  CCS is not available to help meeting the Kyoto targets and is unlikely to contribute to 2020 targets. - High costs: Capture / compression technology, roughly 30% more energy is needed to capture the CO 2. (Exisiting power plants [40 years lifetime] not likely to be retrofitted) - To achieve an economic potential, thousands of capture systems would need to be installed over the coming century, each capturing some 1-5 MtCO 2 per year. (A single 1000 MW lignite coal power plant emitts about 7 MtCO 2 /a) - Risk of leakage: It is still not prooven that CO 2 can be stored safely for a long period of time. (However, evidence from gas fields, one pilot project, high propability that it can be done) Catastrophic (well bore failure) or slow (seepage through fractures) CO 2 release may happen in the future. IEA (2004): Prospects for CO2 capture and storage... implications IPCC SRCCS, SPM

ECCP II - Stakeholder Meeting 24 October (S3) Gabriela von Goerne Implications for CCS If leakage were to become a significant source of emissions, emissions of human activities would have to be re- stricted to even lower levels to reach a set stabilization target (e.g. 450 ppm).  Research and development (R&D) to - Minimise environmental impacts / risk of leakage ● Guarantee that best (not cheapest) storage site is found and chosen [= no leakage] ● Ensure independent scientific review and longer term monitoring (time scale tbd) ● Set International binding Standards, Guidelines, Regulatory Frameworks, clarify liability Source: Dooley & Wise

ECCP II - Stakeholder Meeting 24 October (S3) Gabriela von Goerne Implications for CCS For CCS to become a viable mitigation option in the future (well beyond 2020) ● strong caps / reduction targets ● functioning Emissions trading is required. No public funding to improve the efficiency of coal-fired power stations is needed - Incentives for industry are given by ETS / cap and trade – the price of carbon A diversion of recourses in research investment would endanger renewables targets, Kyoto and Europe's leading role in the renewables sector.* *Institute of Physics (2005): The role of physics in renewable RD&D, EWEA (2005): Prioritising wind energy research

ECCP II - Stakeholder Meeting 24 October (S3) Gabriela von Goerne Picture: Spektrum Dossier – Die Erde im Treibhaus Picture: Conclusion The further we come in achieving a sustainable clean renewable energy world today, the less CO 2 must be stored in the future, leaving less costs and problems to future generations. With gaps in knowledge solved, CCS may play its bridging role to help achieve necessary GHG reductions in time. If however CCS is only meant to continue the fossil fuel / coal use (BAU scenario could mean up to 2,200 Gt CO 2 to be stored underground by the end of this century) this mitiga- tion option is too high a risk and unacceptable.