Nepal's Security Threats (internal and External) Geja Sharma Wagle

Determinants of threats (internal & external) Political system(military, autocratic, communist, formal democracy, functional democracy, advanced democracy) Political stability (unstable or stable) Performance of the government (dis/less/functional, effective) State of the state (poverty, unemployment, peace, conflict, social harmony/conflict, social system) Economic situation (poor, dependent on foreign aid, developing, developed) Security policy (fundamental factors of national security) Security situation (poor, conflict/war, under control, out of control, dependent on foreign powers, post-conflict, stable) Foreign policy (fundamental factors of Foreign policy) Role of security agencies (in/less/effectiveness, people and human rights friendly, coercive, repressive) Relations with neighbours and super powers

Basic facts and figures Nepal isn’t an external threats-free country, but internal threats are more challenging than external More than 85% conflicts are intra-state across the world More than 17,828 people lost their lives due to internal conflict Peace process is in positive direction but Internal conflict, violence, ethnicity might raise as main threats Nepal have not fought a war with any country after Sugauli treaty, but external threats exists Strategic importance & rivalry between & among regional & global powers

A proxy war between China & India? Although one new highway will not in itself push Nepal from India's sphere of influence -- history, economics, and above all, geography will see to that -- the mere fact that India may one day have to compete for Nepal's attention is a sign of Kathmandu's political reorientation. In 2006, as Nepal's monarchy teetered, Maoist leaders and pro-democracy parties signed a comprehensive peace agreement ending a decade-long civil war. Since then, Kathmandu has been building a nascent democracy while wedged in a proxy battle between China and India -- with the United States and Europe watching closely. Greg Bruno, Foreign Affairs May 26, 2010 (May/June 2010, Volume 3, Number 89)

Leftist movement in Nepal, eastern India and Latin America?! Karl Marx believed that the middle class, or at least the capital-owning slice of it that he called the bourgeoisie, would always remain a small and privileged minority in modern societies. What happened instead was that the bourgeoisie and the middle class more generally ended up constituting the vast majority of the populations of most advanced countries, posing problems for socialism. From the days of Aristotle, thinkers have believed that stable democracy rests on a broad middle class and those societies with extremes of wealth and poverty are susceptible either to oligarchic domination or populist revolution. When much of the developed world succeeded in creating middle-class societies, the appeal of Marxism vanished. The only places where leftist radicalism persists as a powerful force are in highly unequal areas of the world, such as parts of Latin America, Nepal, and the impoverished regions of eastern India. Francis Fukuyama, foreign affairs (Jan/Feb 2012) The future of history: can liberal democracy survive the decline of the Middle class?

Internal threats  Poverty and unemployment  Ethnic conflicts for rights, identity & province  Emergence of armed and illegal outfits (108 armed groups)  Political instability and weak government  Weak law enforcement/security agencies  Poor public security and lack of the rule of law  Conflict for natural resources  Natural disaster and calamity  Illegal activities of armed outfits  Federalism and right to self-determination  Religious fundamentalism (Islamic and Hindu)  Culture of violence & impunity

Continued  Lack of transitional justice and weak judiciary  Emergence of non-state actors  Environmental degradation and migration  Food scarcity  Cyber crime  Communal and ethnic violence  Militarization of society  Politicization of crime and criminalization of crime  Open border  Management of arms & army of the UCPN Maoist  human trafficking and drugs smugglings  Caste based system and social discrimination  Lack of economic opportunities

External threats  Strategic rivalry of global & regional powers (the US, India & China)  Potential interference & playground of international actors  Immature & abstract foreign policy  Cross border crime, arms infiltration & smuggling  Border encroachment  Economic blockade  International terrorism  Military interference  Tibetan & Bhutanese refugees  Unwanted activities of intelligence agencies of neighboring and regional countries  human trafficking and drugs smugglings  Smuggling of fake currency

Principles of national security policy Safeguard national unity, territorial integrity, national independence & sovereignty Promote democratic principles & values, follow the rule of law & respect human rights Ensure federal, democratic, secular, plural & inclusive republican state through a new constitution Establish warm, intimate & cordial relations with China & India & follow non interference & peaceful coexistence policy Follow people-centric rather than state & military centric security policy Protect the long cherished identity, values, cultures & languages

Principles of national security policy (cont) Restructure the state respecting the aspirations of the people (all class, caste, culture, ethnicity, gender etc) Protect its people from internal & external conflicts, ensure public security of its citizens & establish the rule of law Respect the diversity of society & follow true principles of plurality to mitigate the internal conflict Make security agencies accountable to the people, inclusive & human rights friendly Resolve border disputes through diplomatic process, introduce border management & monitoring mechanisms & control transnational terrorism, crimes, smugglings & illegal activities

Conclusions Nepal is transforming into a plural, democratic, multi- ethnic, federal & secular state from a feudal & unitary Definition of national unity & security has widened, become more people-centric & based on democratic values & principles Significant policy shift on security & internal & external dynamics National security policy needs to be redefined as per the principles of federal democratic republic & human security Promoting democracy, the rule of law & human rights, ensuring plural & inclusive state & establishing political stability should be the basic principles

Conclusions Professionalize security agencies End of impunity & ensure access to justice Policy should finalize based on national consensus National security is key instrument in establishing political stability & political stability is pre-condition for national security Ongoing peace process must bring into the logical conclusion by permanently resolving the existing conflict & must ensure sustainable peace National Security Council should have role of policy making, research & policy analysis