Energy, Power, and Climate Change 8.11 What Might Happen? M AKING P REDICTIONS  There are three main ways to make predictions about the effects of Earth's increasing temperature: (a) Anecdotal - Observations of changes in the environment in our lifetimes... (i) Retreating glaciers. (ii) Polar ice melts. (iii) Species range changes. For an excellent source on global warming I recommend that you read The Weather Makers by Tim Flannery. Although he is most interested in GW's effects on life, his book covers the whole topic in very readable form.

Energy, Power, and Climate Change 8.11 What Might Happen? M AKING P REDICTIONS  There are three main ways to make predictions about the effects of Earth's increasing temperature: (b) Historical/Geological Records - Observations the geologic evidence left over the ages... (i) Ice cores. (ii) Tree rings. (iii) Ocean sediments. FYI: Thick rings tell of warm, wet growing seasons. The oldest living thing on our planet is a bristlecone pine in the White Mountains of California. It gives us climate data going back 4000 years! FYI: Sediments yield information on wind speed/direction, atmospheric chemistry, the extent of earth's vegetative cover, season length and extremity, and the temperature and chemistry of the ocean.

Energy, Power, and Climate Change 8.11 What Might Happen? M AKING P REDICTIONS  There are three main ways to make predictions about the effects of Earth's increasing temperature: (c) Computer Simulations - The most controversial means of prediction.

Energy, Power, and Climate Change 8.11 What Might Happen? R ISING S EA L EVEL  If the temperature of the earth continues to increase, many models and simulations predict a rise in sea level.  There are two causes for sea level rise: (a) Land ice sheet melt. FYI: During ice ages when the land ice is enhanced by continental- sized glaciers, the sea level can decrease by 100 meters! Question: Why doesn't the melting north polar cap contribute to the rise in sea level, whereas the south polar ice cap does? FYI: The ice melt we are concerned most with, in terms of present- day sea level rise is glaciers and the Antarctic ice sheild.

Energy, Power, and Climate Change 8.11 What Might Happen? R ISING S EA L EVEL  If the temperature of the earth continues to increase, many models and simulations predict a rise in sea level.  There are two causes for sea level rise: (b) Bulk expansion of the sea water due to heating.  Recall that most substances E X P A N D as they are warmed up according to the equation  V =  V 0  T  where V is the volume, T is the temperature in celsius degrees, and  is the coefficient of volume expansion (also known as the bulk modulus). FYI: Recall that water is one of those unusual substances and CONTRACTS while increasing from 0°C to 4°C, and expands from 4°C and above.

Energy, Power, and Climate Change 8.11 What Might Happen? C HANGE IN THE W EATHER  If the temperature of the earth continues to increase, many models and simulations predict a change in the overall weather patterns.  Most models predict that the equator will get hotter and the higher latitudes will get wetter.  Most models predict that storm systems will intensify.  Most models predict that extremes will increase in range. FYI: Most models predict a temperature change between a minimum of 2°F to 11°F in the next 100 years.

Energy, Power, and Climate Change 8.11 What Might Happen? S OLUTIONS  The following ideas have been broached as means to reducing our production or release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere to combat enhanced global warning: (1) Greater efficiency in power production. (2) Replacing use of coal with oil and natural gas. (3) Use combined heating and power systems. (4) Use renewable energy sources and nuclear power. (5) Use hybrid vehicles. (6) Use carbon dioxide capture and storage.  This is an international problem.  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  Kyoto Protocol.  Asian-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (APPCDC).