Discussion of “The Mortality Effects of Retirement: Evidence from Social Security Eligibility at Age 62” Maria Fitzpatrick and Timothy Moore Andrew Goodman-Bacon.

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Presentation transcript:

Discussion of “The Mortality Effects of Retirement: Evidence from Social Security Eligibility at Age 62” Maria Fitzpatrick and Timothy Moore Andrew Goodman-Bacon UC Berkeley/Vanderbilt University

Summary

Post-WWII Spike in Births Source: Finkelstein and Williams (NBER), Lleras-Muney.

White Male Deaths by Age Source: Vital Statistics MCOD Files Should understate discontinuity

Heterogeneity Men vs. Women HS Unmarried vs. Married White vs. Nonwhite Why? – Different “treatment” (checkable) – Heterogeneous response (speculative)

HRS Evidence Condition on SS at 62 – Good: this are the “treated” – Bad: selected sample w.r.t. changes in LFP – Bad: not a comparable (population) “ITT” 2 year changes – For deaths (F2): jump at 62 is 1580 deaths, but diff b/w 61 and 63 is ~8,000 deaths. Use ACS with birth quarter

Share of White Men with SS Income, by Education

Share of Low-Education Whites with SS Income, by Sex

Share of Low-Education Men with SS Income, by Race

What is 62 an instrument for? 1.SS claiming (but for all groups).

What is 62 an instrument for? 1.SS claiming (but for all groups). 2.Is it insurance?

Share of White Men with Health Insurance, by Education

Share of Low-Education Whites with Health Insurance, by Sex

Share of Low-Education Men with Health Insurance, by Race

What is 62 an instrument for? 1.SS claiming (but for all groups). 2.Is it insurance? No

What is 62 an instrument for? 1.SS claiming (but for all groups). 2.Is it insurance? No 3.Is it income?

Average Income, White Men by Education

Average Income, Low-Education Whites by Sex

Average Income, Low-Education Men by Race

What is 62 an instrument for? 1.SS claiming (but for all groups). 2.Is it insurance? No 3.Is it income? No

What is 62 an instrument for? 1.SS claiming (but for all groups). 2.Is it insurance? No 3.Is it income? No 4.Is it LFP?

Share of White Men Out of the Labor Force, by Education

Share of Low-Education Whites Out of the Labor Force, by Sex

Share of Low-Education Men Out of the Labor Force, by Race

What is 62 an instrument for? 1.SS claiming (but for all groups). 2.Is it insurance? No 3.Is it income? No 4.Is it LFP? Maybe a.Matches gender and race (different treatment), but not education patterns (heterogeneity?) b.Compare to OAA (Fetter and Lockwood 2014)?

Why? Displacement increases mortality (Sullivan and von Wachter 2009) – But it is driven by earnings losses Social Security increases within-month mortality (Evans and Moore 201) – But why should cyclical mechanisms matter here? – Check day of month pre/post 62? Economic activity increases mortality (Evans and Moore 2011, Ruhm) – So why should moving to NILF increase deaths?