Birth Dates: Are they affected by Temperature, Barometric Pressure, and Lunar Phase? EAS 4480 4/23/15 OLIVIA BAILEY.

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Presentation transcript:

Birth Dates: Are they affected by Temperature, Barometric Pressure, and Lunar Phase? EAS /23/15 OLIVIA BAILEY

Introduction Objective: Discover whether or not outside force can influence the birth time of babies, especially pre-term births. Also Investigate for time trends/ in the birth of babies. Data: Total number of babies and preterm babies collected from Newton Medical Center (Covington GA) and Clearview Medical Center (Monroe GA) Time: Sampled from April 20 th, 2013 to December 31 st 2014.

Background Parameters: Meteorology: Temperature and barometric pressure. Moon Phase.  Methods:  Periodogram, Cross Spectral Density (CSPD), Phase lag, and Coherence analyses.

Hypothesis:  Expecting Lunar phases to not have a correlation/effect with increases in full- term birth rates nor pre-term birth dates.  Expecting temperature and barometric pressure to have an impact on both full- term and pre-term births.

Total Baby births and Temperature. CPSD o No period found Coherence o Correlation Coefficient: None found

Pre-term Baby births and Temperature. CPSD o Period ~ 1 month (27 days. o Lag -2.3 days Coherence o Correlation Coefficient: 0.33

Total Baby births and Barometric Pressure. CPSD o Period ~ 2 days o Lag -0.5 days Coherence o Correlation Coefficient: 0.72

Pre-term Baby births and Barometric Pressure. CPSD o Period ~3 weeks (25 days) o Lag - 10 day lag Coherence o Correlation value: 0.40

Around average number of births on full moon days/nights compared to the rest of the month Lunar Phases Total births and moon phases (Top left) Pre-births and moon phases(bottom right )

Is There a Trend in the General Baby Birth Data?

Trends in the baby data? Plot the total and pre-term births in time (~1.5 years). Periodogram of the births: ~ 14 day cycle and ~ 27 day cycle o For total number of births there appears to be both a bi weekly trend and a bi monthly trend. o The pre-term data, does not show this.

Weekday vs. Weekend Pre-term babies (Left) do not show significant signal, but total babies do (Right) Take signal from the Weekend days. Less babies are born on the weekend than any other day of the week

Conclusions & Discussion  It appears that temperature and pressure do not play a significant role in the timing of full-term births or pre-term births.  Results also show that the phases of the moon have no impact on either full or pre-term births.  The analyses seem to show a bi-weekly and bi-monthly cycle as per the full- term births, however not for the pre-term births.  Only have the number of babies are borne on the weekend

Conclusions & Discussion  Perhaps a larger sampling pool of both full-term and pre-term births and over a larger sampling time would give more promising results.  Other important factors in timing of births:  Age of parent  Health of parent  Multiple births (twins, etc.)  Prenatal care (Sadovnick, 2007)

Questions, anyone?