Norberto Andrade, Pierre-Alain Schieb, Barrie Stevens Brussels – 16/12/15 FLAGSHIP Final event Global Governance Scenarios and Alternative Policy Approaches: testing their prescriptive value with five case studies FLAGSHIP is Funded by the 7 th Framework Programme of the European Union Thinking ahead sustainably: Policies, Scenarios and Models to address Grand Societal Challenges

Pairing the five policy areas with societal challenges: 2

A common process of assessment for the five case studies in two phases: Phase I: Background Scope and terms of reference Grand challenges Existing legal and regulatory frameworks Factors affecting long term development of policy strategies Phase II- Implications, challenges and policy instruments Under legal governance scenarios: « Global Constitution or Legal Internet » Under global « Perseverance or Metamorphosis » storylines In combination (2x2) 3

Global legal and governance context is a key determinant of policy approaches Five policy areas/case studies show that policy approaches would be different under the three global governance scenarios (Global Constitution, Legal Internet, Legal Borders). When combined with Flagship mega storylines: -different challenges (multitude of stakeholders, acceptability, legitimacy, accountability..) -different role of actors (State, private sector, NGOs, citizens..) -different outcomes (GDP, rate of adoption of new innovation, behaviour) 4

Which actors are in the driving seat ? Policy areasGlobal ConstitutionLegal Internet Global cybersecurityInternational frameworks as priority for governments Voluntary standards by private sector, oversight by NGOs Space debrisInternational bodies and vertical public authorities Bilateral contracts by state and private sector Battery Electric Vehicles and infrastructure Strong role of IGOs if focus is dedicated to BEVs Strong competition between actors within private sector Bioeconomy/biorefineriesStrong potential impact of IGOs/treaties (COP X) Strong competition between incumbents/new entrants Family policyVery limited influence of IGOs, national state in control Myriad of private sector actors, associations and family networks 5

Role of policy makers (1) Fundamental role of policy makers in Global Constitution and Legal Internet is very different. Under Global Constitution scenario, policy makers have an active role in preparation, design and implementation of policies. Under Legal Internet, policy makers are often acting as facilitators and regulators. 6

Role of policy makers (2) Policy areasGlobal constitutionLegal internet Global cybersecurityDesigning global agreements on laws and policies Minimal guidance to create a business friendly env. Space debrisCreating a mandatory international convention Weak role of policy makers Battery Electric Vehicles and infrastructure Mandatory requirements with targets and monitoring of implementation Market driven. Little room besides public procurement/incentives Bioeconomy/biorefineriesScope of international mandate can be limited if not focused on biobased Government as a facilitator but technology neutral Family policyInfluence of IGOs limited to benchmark, best practices Myriad of actors and national idiosyncracies: facilitator, regulator at best, (safeguarding values ?) 7

Under Global Perseverance Storyline: If Global Constitution prevails: Strong state-led international co-operation Chimes well with nature of global challenges Top down rules, will derive from IGOs Issues: wide or focussed scope can change the outcome If Legal Internet prevails: Less optimal outcomes Bottom up legal/policy implementation Multiple stakeholders Issues: potential lack of accountability, legitimacy, competition between actors and sectors, compensating losers ? 8

Under Global Metamorphosis If Global Constitution prevails: International agreements supported by consensus will have strongest, fastest, wider impact, but How to achieve fundamental changes of values, attitudes and behaviours ? E.g. information, education, design of policies.. If Legal Internet prevails: Policy makers willl retain a significant role in: -educational and informational efforts -implementation of Corporate Social Responsability schemes -minimal and effective system of oversight -incentives to guide self enforcement practices regarding codes of conduct and standards 9

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