May 23, 2013 Don Arkell WESTAR Staff WESTAR Council Meeting Tom Moore Air Quality Program Manager Western Governors’ Association

Regional Technical Analysis and Planning Support WRAP working as regional technical center Interconnected series of regional technical projects Management of ongoing emissions and modeling studies Reviewed / coordinated with federal agencies, states, and locals Coordinated through WESTAR Planning and Technical Committees to identify needs and SIP applications Reporting of results to federal agencies providing grants WRAP/EPA Western Modeling Workshop (July 8-11, Boulder, CO) 2

WRAP regional technical support – current efforts NAAQS Implementation and Maintenance Data for future infrastructure and transport SIPs Exceptional Events Develop technical support data and analysis tools Implementation of Regional Haze SIPs Reasonable Progress report – regional technical monitoring / emissions data Identify technical work needed for 2018 plans Needs of sub-regional groups of states Mainly focused on oil and gas Limited scope support for states on specific regional haze topics 3

West-Wide Jumpstart Air Quality Modeling Study (funding by State of NM, BP, and BLM national air program) Regional results - data and context for state and federal planning Most current transport and background studies Meteorological, emissions, air quality photochemical modeling Regionally consistent, High resolution, Comprehensive 2008 base case modeling with Ozone / PM source apportionment 4

West-Wide Jumpstart Air Quality Modeling Study Study status Technical Project work will be completed by mid-August – administrative closeout at WGA no later than end of September Extensive modeling activities underway now Conference calls in June-July-August for review and comment on modeling results Integrated analysis and results with other projects described later Achieving goal to provide an updated regional modeling framework 5

Fire’s Effects on Elevated Regional Ozone and PM Deterministic & Empirical Assessment of Smoke’s Contribution to Ozone (DEASCO 3 ) and companion study to started late 2012: Prescribed and Other Fire Emissions: Particulate Matter Deterministic & Empirical Tagging & Assessment of Impacts on Levels (PMDETAIL) Funding for both from FLM Joint Fire Sciences ProgramDEASCO 3PMDETAIL 6

WestJump AQMS 2008 NEIv2 (USFS collaboration) Leveraging DEASCO 3 Improved AQ Planning PMDETAIL Exceptional Event applications/tools 7

DEASCO 3 project - purpose Assess fire’s impact on elevated ozone episodes with retrospective studies Studies of fire and associated ozone impacts: 2002 through 2008 Provide data and web tools for states and feds to use for: Exceptional Events analyses Annual Fire Planning at landscape scale for smoke management SIP support 8

DEASCO 3 project Study status Technical Project work will be completed by June 30 th - administrative closeout at WGA in July Project activities ~20 case studies completed, presented on website using analysis tools, adding documentation and finishing web tools Beta testing of web tools and data underway now by a small group of analysts – staff from states, FLMs, EPA ROs Webinar in July for WESTAR, EPA, and FLM communities to: Roll out DEASCO 3 project results for use Brief users on PMDETAIL project 9

PMDETAIL project - purpose Assess fire’s impact on elevated PM episodes with retrospective studies Extends DEASCO 3 project results Studies of fire and associated PM impacts: 2002 through 2013 Primary PM Secondary PM Updates to Ozone impacts for Provide data and web tools for states and feds to use for: Exceptional Events analyses Annual Fire Planning at landscape scale for smoke management SIP support 10

PMDETAIL project Study status Technical Project work started Winter continuing through as late as Spring 2016, may be done earlier Current work defined in contracts through September 30 th Administrative closeout at WGA at that time Transfer remainder of grant award to WESTAR for new contracts to start October 1 st Project activities ~20 additional case studies underway, to be presented on website using analysis tools, more documentation and next round of web tools New bottom-up fire EIs for , photochemical modeling for 2011 Leveraged into 3-State Air Quality Study 11

Regional Haze: Reasonable Progress Reports (remaining EPA grant funds from previous years for contractor support) WRAP producing a comprehensive, regionally-consistent technical report Regional, state, and Class I area reports Technical analyses required by Regional Haze Rule Western states will use as a common basis in preparing individual SIP revisions, due over next 2-3 years Progress Reports coordinated and reviewed by WESTAR Planning Committee Currently project webpage is password-protected on WRAPair2.org, but will be made public in June 12

Regional Haze: Reasonable Progress Reports Study status Technical project work will be completed by June 30 th - administrative closeout at WGA in July Remaining project activities Draft-to-final regional and states’ reports Draft-to-final Natural Conditions technical overview Technical Support System (TSS) update of data and tools Closeout call/webinar with states, FLMs, and EPA Provides starting point for analysis needed for 2018 SIPs 13

Oil & Gas: Emissions Inventories and Control Analysis (funding by Western Energy Alliance, EPA, States of WY and ND, BLM) Key source for Ozone / PM standards, & Regional Haze Exploration and production activity continue to increase Data in use current OAQPS national & western modeling work Significant funding and involvement by industry through activity surveys Open review and discussion process with all interested stakeholders Linkages WestJumpAQMS and 3-State Air Quality Study EPA Oil & Gas Emissions tool for 2011 NEI – first time nationally Current remaining project work funded by BLM MT-Dakotas office 2011 base & projection year EIs for Williston & Montana Great Plains Basins 14

Oil & Gas: Emissions Inventories and Control Analysis - Status 2 completion stages – all remaining work in ND-SD-MT Williston Basin and MT Great Plains Basin 2009 Williston Basin base year pilot study results – report/call June base year and 2016ish projections for Williston and Great Plains Basins’ results Current work defined in contract through September 30 th Administrative closeout at WGA at that time Transfer grant award to WESTAR for new contract to start October 1 st Project complete Fall 2013 Remaining project activities Compile survey results, calculate EIs, make projections Review by states and BLM - closeout call with states, FLMs, and EPA 15

Federal Leadership Forum / 3-State Air Quality Study (funded by BLM, USFS, EPA, others in-kind) WY, CO, UT, EPA, BLM, NPS, and USFS Implementation of 3-State and national MOUs - objectives: Facilitate more complete and consistent air quality analysis for NEPA and other air quality decisions Improve timeliness Reduce duplication of air quality analyses resulting in lower costs Improve collaboration Planning for air quality impacts of energy development Ozone focus, additional rural monitoring stations in oil & gas basins Includes data to help with wintertime ozone nonattainment areas Integrates results from WestJumpAQMS and Oil & Gas projects Data warehouse to support future air quality modeling and other analyses 16

Federal Leadership Forum / 3-State Air Quality Study Status - extensive technical project work during Summer 2013 Goal to have operational data warehouse, in-house modeling capability, and data transfer for NEPA modeling studies by Fall 2013 (October) NPS handles cooperative agreements for technical work with Univ. North Carolina and Colo. State Univ.- CIRA Ongoing work to coordinate 3-State Study done through cooperative agreement between NPS and WGA Administrative closeout at WGA in late Summer Set up new NPS agreement with WESTAR to start at that tim e Remaining project activities Quarterly technical workshops and bi-monthly steering committee meetings to manage project Develop workplan for data warehouse operations and study After October, consider geographic/agency expansion and outside funding 17

Future Western Regional Modeling Framework Regional technical support for air quality planning Approach or Process to define and implement a regional modeling framework would include: Scope for structure of ongoing framework operations Sustain and leverage relevant ongoing projects/activities (state, multi- state, federal, academia, etc.) Timeline, costs, and financing alternatives Emissions and Modeling work would focus on regional scale for states’ boundary or external regional conditions, to support state-by-state modeling to demonstrate attainment or reasonable progress 18

Next Steps for WRAP Continue regional analysis and planning support activities Track and improve emissions data for key western source categories Assessment of natural vs. anthropogenic contributions Regional modeling for: Infrastructure / transport SIPs 2018 regional haze SIPs General regional technical support Regional data delivery through TSS and modeling framework Need for western regional analysis of fire and dust exceptional events 19

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