Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 1 HONR 229L: Climate Change: Science, Economics, and Governance Fossil Fuel Reserves Your name here 13 October 2015

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 2 First and foremost, please read the Jakob & Hilaire “News & Views” piece carefully, which helps “translate” the McGlade and Ekins article. And, please look at (and complete) the admission ticket. You might want to begin by asking students which piece was more understandable: i.e., from which piece did they begin to understand the story. FYI, Nature often accompanies their scientific papers with News & Views pieces to help “translate” the story … I’ve written two of these in my career (one on the Arctic ozone layer, another on the effect of oceanic organisms on atmospheric halogens). You’re welcome to state this, should you so desire If not, no worries. I’m good either way. I also find it interesting that in this case we are relying on two Germans (Jakob & Hilaire) to translate for us a paper written by two Brits. Feel free to share this if you find this interesting.

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 3 McGlade and Ekins state that IPCC recently suggested that to have a better-than-even chance of avoiding more than a 2°C rise in global mean surface temperature, “the carbon budget between 2011 and 2050 is around 870  1240 Gt CO 2 ” You might want to begin by asking folks if they have any idea what this means

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 4 McGlade and Ekins state that IPCC recently suggested that to have a better-than-even chance of avoiding more than a 2°C rise in global mean surface temperature, “the carbon budget between 2011 and 2050 is around 870  1240 Gt CO 2 ” You might want to begin by asking folks if they have any idea what this means In lecture 5, I showed a slide that tries to define a Gt of carbon in a tangible manner. This slide is next in the sequence. You are welcome to show … please speak with me if you’d like some assistance in understanding the slide.

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 5 Global Carbon Emissions Nearly 10 Gt C How can we visualize 10  10 9 tonnes of carbon ? Mazda Miata weighs about 1 tonne (2200 lbs) 10 Gigatons C  10 billion Miatas Miata is about 13 feet long Earth’s circumference is ~25,000 miles  10 million Miatas placed end-to-end 10 Gigatons C is equivalent to a series of Miatas, placed end-to-end, encircling the Earth 1000 times !

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 6 The next few charts contain some background info vital for getting started with understanding this paper. Below, I have a chart showing the time series of global carbon emissions, in the form of solid (coal), liquid (oil), and gas (methane or “natural gas”), from 1860 to If you add these numbers up, you will see humans have already emitted about ??? Gt of Carbon, with 315 Gt of Carbon having been emitted since CO 2 emission, 1860 to 2013 = Gt C CO 2 emission, 1959 to 2013 = Gt C

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 7 The chart below if the famous “Keeling curve”. Perhaps you can do a bit of research on this curve. We see in this chart the slow steady rise of CO 2, with a “saw tooth” pattern superimposed. Perhaps you can research what causes the sawtooth pattern, and ask the class what they think causes this behavior Change in atmospheric CO 2, 1959 to 2013 = ppm Legacy of Charles Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA CO 2 emission, 1860 to 2013 = Gt C CO 2 emission, 1959 to 2013 = Gt C

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 8 The chart below if the famous “Keeling curve”. Perhaps you can do a bit of research on this curve. We see in this chart the slow steady rise of CO 2, with a “saw tooth” pattern superimposed. I also show the rise in atmospheric CO 2, from 1959 to 2013, the era of modern instrumentation, in the units for which CO 2 is measured (ppm). Perhaps you can research what ppm means, and ask the class about this. Change in atmospheric CO 2, 1959 to 2013 = ppm Legacy of Charles Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA CO 2 emission, 1860 to 2013 = Gt C CO 2 emission, 1959 to 2013 = Gt C

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 9 The chart below if the famous “Keeling curve”. Perhaps you can do a bit of research on this curve. We see in this chart the slow steady rise of CO 2, with a “saw tooth” pattern superimposed. Now I convert the rise in atmospheric CO 2 to Gt C … we see about 56% stays in the atmosphere. Legacy of Charles Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA CO 2 emission, 1860 to 2013 = Gt C CO 2 emission, 1959 to 2013 = Gt C Change in atmospheric CO 2, 1959 to 2013 = ppm = Gt C

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 10 The chart below if the famous “Keeling curve”. Perhaps you can do a bit of research on this curve. We see in this chart the slow steady rise of CO 2, with a “saw tooth” pattern superimposed. Can next ask the class where they think the rest of the carbon goes? Legacy of Charles Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA CO 2 emission, 1860 to 2013 = Gt C CO 2 emission, 1959 to 2013 = Gt C Change in atmospheric CO 2, 1959 to 2013 = ppm = Gt C About half of the CO 2 released by fossil fuel combustion stays in the atmosphere: rest taken up by ???

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 11 The chart below if the famous “Keeling curve”. Perhaps you can do a bit of research on this curve. We see in this chart the slow steady rise of CO 2, with a “saw tooth” pattern superimposed. Can click and show the answer (why don’t you do your own research to try to fill in the info!) Legacy of Charles Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA CO 2 emission, 1860 to 2013 = ??? Gt C CO 2 emission, 1959 to 2013 = Gt C Change in atmospheric CO 2, 1959 to 2013 = ppm = Gt C About half of the CO 2 released by fossil fuel combustion stays in the atmosphere: rest taken up by please write in answer here

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 12 OK, with this background out of the way, can return to question posed earlier in class, which is McGlade & Ekins state that IPCC recently suggested that to have a better-than-even chance of avoiding more than a 2°C rise in global mean surface temperature, “the carbon budget between 2011 and 2050 is around 870  1240 Gt CO 2 ” I have placed an excerpt from the most recent IPCC report onto the Auxiliary Material page. This chart shows an new concept introduced by IPCC (2013): the rise in global mean surface temperature (GMST) versus “cumulative total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions since 1870, expressed in units of GtC”. Please read through this IPCC material (it is not too long!) and, based on what is stated, explain the next figure. Then, relate this figure to the quote in above: i.e., the 870 to 1240 Gt C limit (they mean “C”, not “CO 2 ” given in the paper).

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 13

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 14 Now with this background, you can dig into the substance of the paper. Might want to highlight the main findings first: that in order to have “half a chance” of keeping the rise in T below 2°C, the world must leave unused one third of oil reserves, half of gas reserves, and 80% (EIGHTY PER CENT!) of coal reserves. Argh, this is a tall order. Can easily spend 10 to 15 mins discussing whether folks think this is achievable. Your call how to structure !!!

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 15 Can spend rest of time trying to decipher McGlade & Ekins (M & E) paper, with help of course from the Jakob & Hilaire (J & H) commentary. While you do not have to get too bogged down in technical details, would be great to focus on the main points of the paper, such as: “resources” versus “reserves” (i.e., what do these terms mean?; what are the numbers for each?) If you can walk students through panels a, b, & c of Fig. 1 great, but if not, be sure to show panel d of Fig 1. Can ask students to explain what is shown (it will be on their admission ticket!) and be prepared to explain yourself, just in case And, should combine Fig 1D of M & E with Fig 1 of J & H

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 16 If you can decipher Fig 2 of M & E, you are welcome to show and ask others if they understood this figure. Completely your call … can go with or without this figure! By the way, the unit of ZJ is explained at

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 17 M & E provide estimates with and without CCS Might want to ask students what CCS means … what do the initials stand for (this is given in both papers) and what does this mean? If you have time to do a little bit of on-line research about CCS, which J & H call a “young technology”, feel free to insert. If not, no worries!

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 18 Table 1 of M & E is quite a tour de force … using an economically-optimal solution (these words appear right below Figure 2) that maximizes social welfare, they attempt to go beyond global limits on the combustion of fossil fuel by extending the analysis to particular regions. Please consider showing this table, and discussing in the context of the AT questions: Outside of the Middle East, what country sits on the largest reserves of oil (aka bitumen)? What fraction of this reserve do M & E suggest should stay in the ground? Based on the politics of this country (we have discussed but you can also do your own research), do you think this is realistic? and other aspects of this table you or the class, upon your questioning, think is worth discussing. Given what is coming next, might want to also focus on Africa in terms of this table.

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 19 Please: a)ask students to define “carbon rent” and be prepared to define if they can’t answer b)walk the students through the last AT question, regarding quote from Tanzania’s energy minister

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 20 Wrap up as you see fit, either by discussing some of the politics (last column of J & H article), whether students think the framework laid out for what needs to be done to limit rise in GMST below 2C is feasible, or some other means of wrapping up. Great if you can work in some of the lessons from the Jared Diamond portion of class, but doing so is a “tall order” and you only have ~45 mins

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 21 Here are the figures from the readings

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 22 Here are the figures from the readings

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 23 Here are the figures from the readings

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 24 Here are the figures from the readings

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 25 Here are the figures from the readings

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 26 Here are the figures from the readings

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 27 Here are the figures from the readings