Sunny with a Chance Elwynn Taylor Weather Impacts on Agriculture Urban-AgAcademy Ag-101 Geislers, 3 miles East.

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Presentation transcript:

Sunny with a Chance Elwynn Taylor Weather Impacts on Agriculture Urban-AgAcademy Ag-101 Geislers, 3 miles East

Prairie & Climate The Wealth of the Earth Highest Productivity Known Highest Carbon Sequestration 35% Grass, 35% Legume, 30% other

40% Corn, 30% Soybean

Bio-Fuel (Utah, 1944)

Something like our 8N Our food acres increased 50%

Ballard Springs Pond Millville silt-loam

Reduction of farm land Fuel market competes with feed market

of citrus’, sandwiches, & climates change In 1968 cooling was a major concern, so was population (Paul Ehrlich). “The greatest threat is our energy hunger, I ordered a lunch delivered, from 1400 miles away.” Dr. Hyrum Johnson

Global Energy Demand is Rising Rapidly Because Energy Consumption and Income are Linked

Energy Demand Reduction?

Energy Farming

Bio-Fuel Reduce Atmospheric Carbon? Convert coal to liquid fuel? Economy: Fuel or Food? Alternatives: Hydro, Wind, Solar, Nuclear

Production Outlook

Grain or Fiber? Improved yield – Maize U. S. yield x3.0 – Rice World yield x2.3 – Rice Philippines yield x3.1 – Rice U. S. yield x2.3 I S U

BPA BPA BPA I S U

The Crop Trend Trends change Trend & Volatility Trend is Technology + Climate Change Volatility is Weather + Climate Cycles

Resource Capture

Almost 60 in 1894, 121 in 2007

Precipitation

Precipitation Change for Iowa

100+ yr Precipitation

Increased Stream Flow: Increased # of Flood-prone Years

Warm Winters Cold Winters COLD WARM

La Niña Outlook 9Mar % Chance La Niña persists into Summer 60% Chance El Niño begins immediately 10% Chance of Neutral ? ? Minimal chance of Neutral SOI 30% Chance of La Niña with US Yield < 148 BPA $ % Chance of El Niño with US Yield > 168 BPA $ % Chance of neutral with US Trend+ 164 BPA $5.15 $ from Wisner 2/9/ Based on the evolution of recent atmosphere- ocean conditions, I am dropping the odds from 50/50 to less than 30% for continued La Niña conditions into the upcoming summer. In fact, there is a distinct possibility that we could see a switch to El Niño by mid … (303) Soy 41bpa $11.95, 43.5bpa $10.60, 45.5bpa $10.35 Today DEC corn $5.60 May corn $6.50

Madden-Julian Contributing to the weather today wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/22/the-madden-julian-oscillation/

mesonet.agron.iastate.edu

IL

IL (historical)

IL (historical)

Outlook Warm through Sat, then not as warm Thunder storms possible Then through 24 Mar:

Based on current atmosphere-ocean conditions, I believe the odds for this La Niña event to continue right through early summer (June-July 2012) are just about 50%. Beyond that, it is worth noting that four of the ten two-year La Niña events between 1900 and 2009 ended up as a three-year event, so I would put the odds for this to occur in at 40% right now.