MTEF/Joint Programming : update and current issues DPG MTEF/Joint programming workshop 25 July 2006

Context GoT led JAS process has produced key doc on principles, but no immediate prospect of joint analysis/program replacing agency program documents Many agencies need some form of program document in the near term => Need for short analysis/program document, as DP response to Mkukuta/JAS, prepared by end September latest

Components of a program doc Part 1 JAS – existing text Part 2Joint country analysis Part 3Joint programming document [Part 4] Optional, agency specific supplement (preferably kept to a minimum)

Part 3 -Joint program doc : outline Intro, review of lessons learnt Managing external financing – mapping out relation of JAS and annual planning and budget process Joint programming – summary of key issues from MTEF responses on Mkukuta financing, consistency with JAS + annex tables Monitoring Risk analysis : identification, mitigation, scenarios/response

MTEF DP projections so far……. 14 agencies + collective UN projections received so far Analysis focussed on aggregate projection issues highlighted in earlier DP discussion, (need to capture planned disbursements, not just existing commitments) Other analysis to follow, guided by today’s discussion

DPs Support (2006/07=100)

Total DPs Suppor t (% of GDP)

Budget Support (% of GDP)

Total External Financing, actaul + projections

Total External Financing, actual + projections

Challenges faced by DPs Various planning and budgeting cycles DoL exercise may effect sector distribution in outer years Domestic political uncertainties Several imlementing agencies/country Fiscal year/calendar year Exchange rates

Issues for the joint program document : criteria Adding value to individual agency plans (clarifying overall context, adjusting collective strategy, adding collective commitments) Useful contribution achievable in time horizon for program doc Useful for strengthening national planning and budget process, not just one off exercise to meet agency program doc requirements

Proposed issues from the workshop Improving DP medium term projections Aid absorption/scaling up Alignment with MKUKUTA Alignment with JAS Funding modalities

Improving DP medium term projections Proposed categories : distinguishing commitments, plans, unallocated. DPs vary in ability to report planned + unallocated. DPG commitment to look at this and seek improvements Can the aggregates be made more realistic than the components ? Collective DPG commitment to review shortfalls? More frequent interaction on financing plans.

Improving…(2) Useful to include and how? Regional programmes NGOs Institutional cooperation Research Debt relief Humanitarian aid

Macro planning GoT leadership on scenarios on public expenditure/ level of external financing (PER macro group?) linked to MKUKUTA, JAS At first glance, projections suggest focus may need to be on issues of scaling down ! Given recent history on external financing projections, should at least explore scenario of continued increase, and potential absorption issues at macro and sector level

Alignment with MKUKUTA Analysis by sector (distribute sector projections for sector group comment?) Analysis of match with MKUKUTA eg alignment with requirements on financing growth agenda, major infrastructure, transport sector plan, etc

Alignment with JAS Paris Declaration survey tells us where we are now on implementing JAS principles MTEF projections can tell us where we will be up to 2010, based on existing plans (indicators 5,6,8…any others?) - preliminary target for JAS implementation, basis for dialogue

Budget support in the MTEF Proportion of budget support appears to be rising (as % GDP, declining less rapidly than total external financing) Looking for changes in expenditure/financing patterns consistent with continued budget support eg budget financing of core reform, additional domestic capital expenditure