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Forecast Risk Identifying & Quantifying It.

Forecast Risk: Every forecast has Risk in it; the challenge is to identify and quantify that risk while there is still time to do something about it. Occulus will indentify & quantify any risk in your forecast while you still have time to react. Forecast Risk v1.2 3

Occulus SWOT Chart The SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities & Threats) Chart is one of the outputs of the Occulus analysis for a sales opportunity; the SWOT Chart graphically displays how the SR is performing in the 5 areas of a Complex Sale. By closely examining the SWOT Chart you can quickly identify those deals that are at risk of being lost, even thought they are in the forecast, and those that are at risk of slipping past their Close Date. Forecast Risk v1.2 4

Occulus identifies the Performance Levels of the 5 other areas of a Complex Sale that directly impact whether or not the SR will win the deal and if it will close by the forecasted Close Date. Forecast Risk v1.2 5 WINNING Opportunity Description How well the deal is defined and if SR knows and understands what the prospect is trying to do and why. Proposed Solution How closely the proposed solution matches the prospect’s requirements. Decision Process How well the SR knows and understands the prospect’s Buying Process, who is involved and their influence. Relationship How strong & deep of a relationship the SR has with the KEY individuals who are part of the project. Competition How well the SR’s solution (& Value Proposition) stacks up against the 3 types of competition and how he will beat them.

The Occulus SWOT Chart is a Bar Chart that displays how well the SR is performing in 5 areas of a complex sale. Forecast Risk v % 0% DESCDESC SOL‘NSOL‘N DECISIONDECISION RELATIONRELATION COMPCOMP 50% High Low Score Uncertainty 5 Areas of a Complex Sale Relative Strength Score:Positional strength in a specific area Range:A High and Low value for the Score that reflects the Uncertainty in the value. The Occulus SWOT Chart graphically displays the Strengths & Weaknesses of the SR’s sales strategy.

Probabilities: Based on the SR’s performance in the 5 areas of a Complex Sale, Occulus will calculate; 1. The Probability of Winning the deal 2. The Probability that the deal will close by the forecasted Close Date. Occulus displays the Winning & Timing probabilities on the SWOT Chart Forecast Risk v1.2 7

Coaching With the Occulus SWOT Chart Forecast Risk v % TimingWinning Probability 50% 0% Opportunity Description Solution Decision Process Relationship Competition Current Performance Levels (CP) for: 1.Opportunity Description 2.Proposed Solution 3.Decision Process (Buying Process) 4.Relationship 5.Competition Note: Length of bar for Decision Process indicates a lot of missing information. Probabilities for: 1.Timing; the probability that the deal will close by the forecasted Close Date 2.Winning: the probability that the SR will Win the deal.

Risk in the Forecast: Forecast Risk v1.2 9 Risk in the Forecast: Occulus Will Identify & Quantify the RISK. But first:A little bit of Probability Theory. For a Binary Event, one that exists in only 1 of 2 possible states, the probability of Event (E) being in State 1 (S1) plus the probability of it being in State 2 (S2) equals 100%. (no more, no less) P(E) = P(S1) + P(S2) = 100% Think of flipping a coin, it’s a Binary Event, it has 2 possible outcomes: The probability of it landing ‘Heads’ plus the probability of it ‘Not landing Heads’ (tails) is 100%

Risk in the Forecast: Occulus Will Identify & Quantify the RISK. Winning is a Binary Event, the SR will either win (W) the deal or will not; they will lose it (L). P(W) + P(L) = 100% P(L) = GAP = 100% - P(W) = Risk of Losing Timing is also a Binary Event, the SR will either close(C) the deal by the Close Date or they will not (S). P(C) + P(S) = 100% P(S) = GAP = 100% - P(C) = Risk of Slipping past Close Date Forecast Risk v1.2 10

Forecast Risk v CP(W): Probability of Winning GAP(W) = 100% - CP(W) = Probability of NOT Winning = RISK of Not Winning CP(T): Probability of closing by the Close Date GAP(T) = 100% - CP(T) = Probability of NOT closing by the Close Date = RISK of NOT closing by the Close Date The GAP = the RISK of the event NOT happening 100% Timing Winning GAP Probability 50% 0% Desired Performance (DP) CP(W) CP(T) Risk in the Forecast: Occulus Will Identify & Quantify the RISK. WIN CLOSE DATE RISK

Business Intelligence for Sales Forecast Risk v1.2 12