The End of Cheap Oil: Social, Economic, and Political Change in the US and the Former Soviet Union Robert K. Kaufmann Boston University February 25, 2011.

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Presentation transcript:

The End of Cheap Oil: Social, Economic, and Political Change in the US and the Former Soviet Union Robert K. Kaufmann Boston University February 25, 2011

The Cold War: The Ultimate Social Experiment

Outline Energy & Economic Activity End of Cheap Oil Quantity: annual production Quality:Energy Return on Investment Economic, Social, and Political Change USA: Working Harder Borrowing from the Future USSR: Collapse

Economic Activity & Energy Use: USSR

Energy Use and Economic Activity: USA GDP Energy

Energy Efficiency: Fuel Mix, Household Energy Use, and Price

The Quantity of Oil Supply The Hotelling Model Rank supplies in terms of marginal cost Maximize the present value of production The Hubbert model Mathematical parsimony Finite supply Rise to and fall from a single peak

Oil Production: USA

Oil Production: USSR

Changes in Quality: USSR Oil Production

Changes in Quality: USA

EROI Imported Oil US

Energy Use and Labor Productivity Energy/Woker Hour Real Value Added per Worker Hour

US Hourly Wage

Family Income (Male Sole Earner)

Female Participation Rate

Median Family Income

US Savings Rate

International Investment Position

Federal Debt

Consumer Debt

The Former USSR: Collapse Three uses of oil Increase exports to East European allies Earn hard currency for western imports Increase domestic living standards

The Former USSR: Collapse Three uses of oil Increase exports to East European allies Earn hard currency for western imports Increase domestic living standards

The Future: Inequality

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