Israel’s National Security In Crisis. The Rise and Fall of Strategies Relevancy Paradigm ‘relevant’ to reality Paradigm Eroded Paradigm Loses Relevancy.

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Presentation transcript:

Israel’s National Security In Crisis

The Rise and Fall of Strategies Relevancy Paradigm ‘relevant’ to reality Paradigm Eroded Paradigm Loses Relevancy New Paradigm Generations Strategies in the Flat World A few years Time

Israel’s National Security Concept Time Relevancy Ben Gurion’s Seminar ~ 2nd Lebanon War Tahdiah with Hamas Israel secure Logic of Implosion Israel’s Code Broken Winograd Commission UNSCR 1701 Billions of Dollars Israel suffering from Strategic Inferiority

Israel losing to Resistance Network Failure to topple Hamas 2 nd Lebanon War Convergence Plan Annapolis Stalemate Around Gaza > 0 : 5 Ideology + Strategy + Nuclear Weapons = New Strategic Challenge 1234

IDF SuperiorityArab States: Strategic balance Resistance Network Outflanking IDF Resistance Network Bypasses IDF Israeli Inferiority IL ArabsHome frontIntl Arena

Basic Assumptions: Strategic A-Symmetry Hierarchical top-down structureFlat network based structure Finality of claims / PeacePermanent Resistance High intensity / VictoryLow intensity / Attrition / Implosion No civilian casualtiesAttack civilians / Human shields IL Arabs = domestic issueIL Arabs = Strategic leverage Battleground: Military fieldBattleground: Home front & intl. arena Control over PL = Military NecessityControl over PL = Strategic Asset Authority with responsibilityAuthority w/o responsibility

Undermine 2SS / Promote 1SS Tactics: Overstretch No Finality of claims Basic De-Legitimacy Demography / Intl Law Logic of Implosion Vision: Islamic State in place of Israel Democracy Demography Territory Identity

Ahmadinejad: “Israel is on a crash course… just like the Soviet Union disappeared.” (12/2/06) Nasrallah: “We do not need tanks and planes… [Israel] is weaker than a spider web.” (7/31/06) Occupation Serves the Implosion Purpose: Destruction of Israel Military Means De-Legitimize Promote 1SS Oppose 2SS Israeli Implosion Single Arab State in its place War Against Occupation Continuation of the Occupation Meshal: “If Hamas cannot protect the Palestinian people, let the PA go to hell…” (3/19/06)

The Threat: International Inversion Logic of Implosion Occupation is Bad for Israel Global Changes: USA Declining New Forces Rise Inversion: From Two-State Solution to One-state Solution Israeli-Arabs: Internationalization Palestinization Challenge to IL’s Charecter International Inversion Towards the 2SS Anti-Zionism rising Failure of Negotiation By the ‘Dream-Team’

Ben Gurion’s Seminar (3-11/47) Focus Systemic & Systematic Approach Learning Process Defining the Challenge Formulating structural & Operational approach National Security Strategy & Victory Objectives Why it was Successful 2008: A New Seminar is Required