Seminar on the Evolution of National Statistical Systems Panel Discussion: Prospects and Risks for the Future: How to Manage Uncertainties? Eduardo Pereira Nunes (President of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE) Wasmália Bivar (Director of Surveys - IBGE) Zélia Bianchini (Deputy Director of Surveys - IBGE) Commemorative Event for the 60 th Anniversary of the United Nations Statistical Commission – United Nations, New York - February 23, 2007

Outline Issues concerning the challenges for the National Statistical Offices - NSOs Focus on Strengthening Statistical Capacity of the NSOs and the role of United Nations and other international organizations

Prospects and risks New demands for information to be provided by NSOs –the advance of democracy in the world –the organization of several segments of civil society claiming for their rights –the increase of globalization and international commercial agreements –the impact of technological changes in the economy and the society A challenge faced by the NSOs is to produce a larger, more diversified and consistent set of relevant statistics based on statistical principles and practices and continuously evaluate the relevance of their statistical production.

Prospects and risks The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE - held in 2006, on its 70 th anniversary, the Fifth National Conference of Statistics At this forum was discussed the scope of the National Statistical System with producers and users, specially on –the improvement of traditional topics related to statistical production –the increasing relevant new topics time use, citizenship, disability, human rights and violence, culture, tourism, information and communication technology (ICT), food security, etc.

Prospects and risks An important question is the increase in the utilization of statistical information as a parameter for public policies and their monitoring –It may help to strengthen the statistical system; but in many cases it involves some risks –As in other countries, in Brazil the annual population estimates for municipalities are used to define the distribution of public resources: this is a legal constitutional duty of IBGE. –The accuracy of these estimates, however, does not always attend the requirements of the users. Situation that demands a proper use of official statistics

How to manage uncertainties or contradictions between NSOs and users? How can we strengthen the use of structural data? –Although the use of statistics has grown considerably, the focus goes on strongly on short-term statistics, mainly in economic statistics. –A good example is the larger use of short-term indicators of national accounts while the analytical potentialities of the whole set of accounts of the system is little explored or unknown by the general public.

How to manage uncertainties? Proper use of official statistics –the discussion on the problem of different data resulting from different methodologies used by international organizations and the one’s produced by the NSOs –Example - the population statistics as a pillar of national statistics - used to calculate a large number of indicators to monitor social and economic development –Brazil is going through an important demographic transition and changes in the social security system are being discussed –IBGE participate of this discussion due to the population and life expectancy estimates, which are not consistent with those published by the United Nations for the same years –All methodology used by IBGE is coherent with the system of the United Nations even with contradictions –However the discrepancies between the data produced by the UN Population Division and by the IBGE causes big problems because depending on the denominator, the indicator meets or not the expectations (MDGs may be reached or not).

How to manage uncertainties or conflicts between NSOs and international agencies? The harmonization of the estimates represents an important step towards the consolidation of national statistical systems and the credibility of the National Statistical Offices – specially IBGE.

How to manage uncertainties or conflicts between NSOs and international agencies? Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics Principle 9: “The use by statistical agencies in each country of international concepts, classifications and methods promotes the consistency and efficiency of statistical systems at all official levels.” Principle 10: ”Bilateral and multilateral cooperation in statistics contributes to the improvement of systems of official statistics in all countries.” Decisions brought on the 37 th Session of Statistical Commission “Recommended that international agencies turn to data imputation only when country data were not available and that should be done in consultation with countries and through a fully transparent methodology; Recognized that the mechanisms for reporting data from national to international statistical systems should be improved.” An example of conflict: Population Estimates for Brazil –International Comparison Program (another example)

Contradiction Brazil always sticks to international recommendations Example: Release on internet of the site with comparative data on countries: ( –On this link the population data used by IBGE for all 192 countries are from United Nations Population Division However the population estimates of IBGE – the National Institute of Statistics - for the same year are different from those released by UN Population Division Nevertheless this same data from IBGE were elaborated with UNFPA support, in joint publication UNFPA and IBGE.

SourceBrazilian Population 2005 UN Population Division IBGE UNFPA - IBGE Brazilian Population 2005

How to manage uncertainties? Efforts made by international organizations in order to obtain information on national level should be focused on the construction of continuous capacity of the NSOs. Cooperative work among international agencies and countries including the development of their capacities.

The permanent effort to maintain and improve the national statistical system can not weaken the NSOs How to manage these uncertainties or conflicts? The use by international agencies of data produced by the NSOs is a positive element Besides, the emphasis on harmonization and joint work with international agencies

Examples of cooperation International collaboration on programs and projects, such as: –The International Comparison Program – The Joint Population Census for Mercosul, Bolivia and Chile –The Monitoring of the Millennium Goals These are excellent opportunities to consolidate strategies for the strengthening of the NSOs and increasing the credibility of their work.

How to manage uncertainties? Methodological frameworks developed by international organizations are important tools for the NSOs but its implementation requires a considerable amount of time and resources. It is important the evaluation of ways of implementation of the international recommendations by NSOs, and the harmonization between data of the NSO’s and of international agencies.

How to manage uncertainties? The coherence between the statistical data produced by the NSOs and the international agencies is fundamental for assuring the credibility of the National Statistical Systems.