Yuanhong Guan (NUIST, Nanjing, China) Bohua Huang (GMU/COLA)

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Presentation transcript:

Mechanism and Predictability of South Pacific Dipole Mode in NCEP CFSv2 Yuanhong Guan (NUIST, Nanjing, China) Bohua Huang (GMU/COLA) Jieshun Zhu (COLA) Zeng-Zhen Hu (CPC/NCEP/NOAA) James L. Kinter III (GMU/COLA)

References Guan, Y., J. Zhu, B. Huang, Z.-Z. Hu and J. L. Kinter, 2013a: South Pacific Ocean Dipole: A predictable mode on multi-seasonal time scales. J. Climate, accepted. Guan, Y., B. Huang, J. Zhu, Z.-Z. Hu and J. L. Kinter, 2013b: Interannual variability of the South Pacific Ocean in observations and simulated by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2. Climate Dynamics, submitted.

Unique Character of Southern Ocean SSTA Open Ocean Formation CFSv2 reproduces the STD distribution of the observed SSTA Overestimate and shift in South Pacific

South Pacific Dipole (SPD) Southern Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SSID) South Pacific Dipole (SPD) Southern Subtropical Atlantic Dipole (SSAD)

South Pacific Dipole (SPD) Mode SPD is highly coherent with ENSO in both observations and CFSv2

Lifecycle of Composite SPD Event

Regional Air-Sea Feedback Surface Heat Flux, ΔQ Monthly climatological mixed layer depth. In developing phase,

Influence of wind anomalies is significant Regional Air-Sea Feedback Morioka et al. (2010, 2012) Influence of wind anomalies is significant

Where the wind anomalies come from?

Atmospheric Tele-Connection Atmospheric anomalies in South Pacific are characterized by Pacific-South American (PSA) Pattern (Mo and Higgins 1998)

Connection to ENSO Heating Sources

SPD Prediction Skill and Predictability

SPD

SPD

SPD

Summary SPD is the leading SSTA pattern in South Pacific during summer. CFSv2 simulates SPD realistically, including its lifecycle, seasonality and ENSO connection. SPD events are initiated by wind-induced surface latent heat flux anomalies. Persistent mixed layer depth anomalies enhance SPD. ENSO-forced PSA wave train generates wind perturbations over South Pacific for SPD. CFSv2 shows high predictive skill of SPD mode, due to its good prediction of ENSO and its PSA tele-connection. Seasonal dependence: An austral “fall barrier” of prediction skill appears near New Zealand. Extratropical SPD sources need further investigation.