California Energy Commission Natural Gas Outlook IEPR Commissioner Workshop on 2015 Natural Gas Outlook Report Monday, September 21, 2015 Anthony Dixon.

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Presentation transcript:

California Energy Commission Natural Gas Outlook IEPR Commissioner Workshop on 2015 Natural Gas Outlook Report Monday, September 21, 2015 Anthony Dixon Supply Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division 1

California Energy Commission 2 Natural Gas Outlook Report Preview of major story line in the 2015 Natural Gas Outlook Report. Available in next 2 to 4 weeks Looking for stakeholder feedback

California Energy Commission 3 Annual growth rates between 2018 and 2030 about 3.9 percent 2030 prices between $4.08 in the low case and $6.87 in the high case (2014$ per thousand cubic feet) All IEPR Natural Gas Cases Show Increasing Prices Henry Hub Blended Prices

California Energy Commission 4 Single Year Prices May Range from $9.50 to $2.50 Mcf by 2030

California Energy Commission 5 California pricing points parallel Henry Hub California’s gas sources are physically separated Topock – San Juan Basin Malin – Canadian and Rockies Basins Prices at Malin and Topock Move with National Trends

California Energy Commission 6 California End-Use Natural Gas Demand Forecast Higher than 2013 Forecasts

California Energy Commission 7 Natural Gas Resources and Infrastructure California Legislature, CPUC, utilities working to construct new regulatory framework for pipeline safety SB 705 (Leno, Chapter 522, Statutes of 2011) SB1371 (Leno, Chapter 525, Statutes of 2014) CPUC Independent Review Panel

California Energy Commission 8 Natural Gas Resources and Infrastructure Possibility of LNG exports with expanding resources in U.S. U.S. DOE has approved 8 LNG liquefaction terminals All outside California

California Energy Commission 9 California Storage lines up with the 5 Year Average for August

California Energy Commission 10 Natural Gas for Power Generation is Declining across IEPR Cases

California Energy Commission Thank You 11