“ Moving from Upstream to Midstream: Response Tools for Genocide and Atrocity Crimes Prevention” Dr. James Waller, KSC/AIPR and Ms. Samantha Capicotto, AIPR November 2015

Continuum of Genocide Prevention Strategies Primary Prevention –Upstream Prevention –“Before” Analysis of Structural Risk Factors Secondary PreventionSecondary Prevention –Midstream Prevention –Immediate, Real-Time Relief Efforts During Crisis Tertiary Prevention –Downstream Prevention –“After” Efforts to Foster Resiliency in Post-Genocide Society

Learning Objectives Understand the… –(1) political, economic, legal, and military preventive response tools available to help halt and reverse escalating threats of genocide and mass atrocities; –(2) clear benefits of early preventive action over more costly remedial efforts; –(3) importance of strategic planning, contingency preparations, realistic exercising, and learning from the past.

Spectrum of Influence for Response Tools

Target Groups for Response Tools

What are the political, economic, legal, and military preventive response tools available to help halt and reverse escalating threats of genocide and mass atrocities?

Midstream Tools for Genocide Prevention

Political Response Tools Cooperative Diplomatic Legitimization and Recognition Benefits Resources for Enabling Dialogue Political and Field Missions Support for Human Rights Promotion, Monitoring, and Documentation

Political Response Tools Cooperative Diplomatic Legitimization and Recognition Benefits Resources for Enabling Dialogue Political and Field Missions Support for Human Rights Promotion, Monitoring, and Documentation Coercive Threat or Application of Political or Diplomatic Sanctions Condemnation (Unilateral or Multilateral) Sporting or Cultural Boycotts Proscription of Individuals and Organizations

Midstream Tools for Genocide Prevention

Economic Response Tools Cooperative Lifting of Existing Sanctions or Embargoes Debt Relief or Increased Aid New Funding or Investment Trade Incentives (Tariff Reductions, Direct Purchases, Favored Status, Subsidies, Import/Export Licenses, etc.)

Economic Response Tools Cooperative Lifting of Existing Sanctions or Embargoes Debt Relief or Increased Aid New Funding or Investment Trade Incentives (Tariff Reductions, Direct Purchases, Favored Status, Subsidies, Import/Export Licenses, etc.) Coercive Targeted or “Smart” Financial Sanctions Trade Embargoes Freezing or Seizing of Monetary Assets of Elites Responsible for Atrocities Divestment or Aid Conditionality

Midstream Tools for Genocide Prevention

Legal Response Tools Cooperative Monitors to Observe Compliance with Human Rights Standards and Law Offers of Amnesty or Immunity Domestic Support of Dispute Resolution Mechanisms References to Existing International Law and Norms

Legal Response Tools Cooperative Monitors to Observe Compliance with Human Rights Standards and Law Offers of Amnesty or Immunity Domestic Support of Dispute Resolution Mechanisms References to Existing International Law and Norms Coercive Action by UN Organs Human Rights Investigations Threats of Referral or Actual Referral for Criminal Prosecution (Domestic or International) Exercise of Universal Jurisdiction

Midstream Tools for Genocide Prevention

Military Response Tools Cooperative Military Aid or Training Confidence and Security- Building Measures Security Guarantees for the Protection of Civilians (Safe Havens or Evacuation) Consensual Preventive Deployment

Military Response Tools Cooperative Military Aid or Training Confidence and Security- Building Measures Security Guarantees for the Protection of Civilians (Safe Havens or Evacuation) Consensual Preventive Deployment Coercive Restricted Arms, Movements, and Communications Heightened Military Presence in the Region Credible Threat of Military Force Use of Military Force for Nonconsensual Coercive Intervention

Lessons Learned Clear benefits of early preventive action (upstream and midsteram) over more costly remedial efforts (downstream). Importance of strategic planning, contingency preparations, realistic exercising, and learning from the past.