The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 08 December 2008 For more information, visit:

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Countries of Africa.

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The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 08 December 2008 For more information, visit:

Outline Highlights Recent Evolution and Current Conditions NCEP GEFS Forecasts Experimental Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Summary

Highlights: Last 7 Days During the past 7 days, above normal rainfall below average in eastern Kenya, south Somalia, Zambia, southern Mozambique and Madagascar. Cameroon, western Gabon, southwest Angola and parts of Namibia recorded above average rainfall. During the last 30 days, daily rainfall evolution showed below average amounts over southern Gabon and northwestern Angola. Rainfall was below normal in Mozambique. Daily rainfall evolution shows above average rainfall in Zambia, eastern Angola and northern Namibia.

Rainfall Patterns: Last 180 Days Over the past 180 days, rainfall was above average over gulf of guinea countries, Senegal, Guinea Bissau, Guinea, Liberia, Ivory Coast, Ghana and western Nigeria. Rainfall was also near average in CAR, northern DRC, central Ethiopia and northern Madagascar. Below average rainfall was recorded in northern Nigeria, central Sudan, northern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya and southern Somalia, southern DRC, northern Angola and central Mozambique.

Rainfall Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall was above average in few parts of west Africa including Guinea Bissau, southeastern Senegal, Liberia, parts of Ghana and southeast Nigeria. In central parts of Africa, rainfall was near average in eastern DRC. In the Greater Horn of Africa, rainfall was above average in southern Sudan, southern Ethiopia and western Kenya. Southeast Angola, northeast Namibia, and northern Madagascar also recorded above normal rainfall. Below average rainfall occurred in northeast Nigeria, Cameroon, Gabon, southern DRC, eastern Kenya, and central Mozambique.

Rainfall Patterns: Last 30 Days During the last 30 days, rainfall was above average eastern Angola, Zambia, northeast Namibia, eastern parts of South Africa Republic and northeast Madagascar. Rainfall was below average in northwest Angola, southern Gabon, northeast DRC, Uganda, parts of eastern Kenya, south Somalia and central Mozambique.

Rainfall Patterns: Last 7 Days During the last 7 days, rainfall was below average in eastern Kenya, south Somalia, Zambia, southern Mozambique and Madagascar. Cameroon, western Gabon, southwest Angola and parts of Namibia recorded above average rainfall.

Recent Rainfall Evolution During the last 30 days, daily rainfall evolution showed below average amounts over southern Gabon and northwestern Angola (bottom left panel). Rainfall was below normal in Mozambique (top right panel). Daily rainfall evolution shows above average rainfall in Zambia, eastern Angola and northern Namibia (bottom right panel).

Atmospheric Circulation: Last 7 Days Over the past 7 days, the 850 hPa wind anomaly showed an anticyclonic circulation in the northwest India Ocean with weak westerly flow in the Equatorial Indian Ocean (left panel). 200hPa circulation anomaly featured westerly anomalies in the eastern Africa and western Indian Ocean region and l easterlies in southwestern Indian Ocean and South Africa region (Left panel).

NCEP GEFS Model Forecasts Non-Bias Corrected Probability of precipitation exceedance Week-1: Valid 09 December – 15 December, 2008 Week-2: Valid December, 2008 For week-1, the global ensemble forecast system (GEFS) suggests 90% chance for precipitation to exceed 50 mm over Gabon, southern Congo, southern DRC, central Angola, Zambia, northern Mozambique, eastern part of South Africa Republic and Madagascar. For week-2, there is a high chance for precipitation to exceed 50 mm over southern DRC, Zambia, northern Mozambique, parts of eastern South Africa Republic and eastern Madagascar. Note: The GFS tends to suppress (increase) precipitation in the Sahel (Gulf of Guinea region).

Experimental Week-1 & Week-2 Precipitation Outlooks Week-2 Outlook Valid December, 2008 Week-1 Outlook Valid 09 – 15 December, 2008 Skill is low to issue a forecast. An increased chance for above average rainfall over parts of Angola, northern Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Favourable westerly moist wind from Atlantic Ocean is expected to enhance precipitation in the region. Confidence: Moderate.

Summary During the last 7 days, rainfall was below average in eastern Kenya, south Somalia, Zambia, southern Mozambique and Madagascar. Cameroon, western Gabon, southwest Angola and parts of Namibia recorded above average rainfall. During the last 30 days, daily rainfall evolution showed below average amounts over southern Gabon and northwestern Angola. Rainfall was below normal in Mozambique. Daily rainfall evolution shows above average rainfall in Zambia, eastern Angola and northern Namibia. Experimental forecasts for week ending 15 December suggest an increased chance for above average rainfall over parts of Angola, northern Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Favourable westerly moist wind from Atlantic Ocean is expected to enhance precipitation in the region.