COMSTAC Systems Working Group Summary 10 October 2012

Human Spaceflight Requirements Activities Update (Pam Melroy) Broad participation, over 80 participants joined telecons Next telecon meeting Oct 23 Two telecons to date have discussed questions regarding: Target thresholds of safety? Quantitative? Level of Protection? What should FAA Oversight look like? What defines certification? Significance of definitions (i.e terms like abort) Participation in telecons appreciated and highly valuable, encourage continued involvement

Federal Aviation Administration 3 Takeaways 1.Industry designers and operators should be willing to talk about their safety philosophy – there is a huge benefit in the shared community hearing educated/thoughtful comments. 2.We are seeing the advantage of discussing issues from both a tactical near-term perspective (industry) and a strategic long-term perspective (government). 3.We hope that even if people don’t dial in, they read the charts and submit comments. We can keep comments confidential if desired. 4.We believe the telecons are valuable and intend to have at least 10 total. 5.We look forward to you participating in the next conference call on October 23 th at 1 pm Eastern time – “What types of requirements and associated guidance material should FAA develop?”

Integration of Comm. Space Launch/Reentry Ops into NAS - Update (Dan Murray) Goal – Provide equitable access to the National Airspace System Use rates expectations – Aviation up 90% next 20 years, Space up 10X next 10 years Soliciting stakeholder input into policies and processes Timeline for stakeholder input under development Discussion on local versus national management of the NAS integration National approach intended to help preclude reinventing the wheel with new users

Lessons Learned Database – Update (Mike Kelly) May COMSTAC Action update Goal – Track anomalies while protecting proprietary information Website established – essentially no use since it was opened Existing STAR database has > 5,600 launches worldwide recorded using open source data; pursuing making it public AST seeking 1:1 interface with industry to explore concepts Jim Van Laak assignment to National Inst. of Aerospace to develop culture of safety in commercial space Recommendation COMSTAC recommends that AST work with industry to define the limits and determine the rationale of "reportable incidents" in which operators should expect that the existence of the incident will be a matter of record, although certain details may be proprietary

Summary of 10-Year Suborbital Reusable Vehicle (SRV) Market Demand: The goal of the forecast was to help policy makers understand the dynamics of emerging SRV markets. Baseline demand for suborbital flight is sustained and sufficient to support multiple providers. The forecast estimates that the baseline SRV demand will support daily flights in six distinct market areas over the 10-year forecast. The dominant demand for SRVs is commercial human spaceflight. The forecast predicts about 400 seat/cargo equivalents in year one of regular operations growing to slightly over 500. The growth scenario demand is about triple the baseline starting at about 1100 seat/cargo equivalents to almost 1500 seat/cargo equivalents. The constrained scenario demand is about half the baseline, which is approximately 200 seat/cargo equivalents. Additional potential demand could result from unpredictable successes.