Carlo Sessa – Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems Brussels – 16/12/15 FLAGSHIP Final event The FLAGSHIP storyline Metamorphosis beyond perseverance FLAGSHIP is Funded by the 7 th Framework Programme of the European Union Thinking ahead sustainably: Policies, Scenarios and Models to address Grand Societal Challenges

Forward Looking for driving change …? “Want of foresight, unwillingness to act when action would be simple and effective, lack of clear thinking, confusion of counsel until the emergency comes, until self-preservation strikes its jarring gong — these are the features which constitute the endless repetition of history.” Winston Churchill (quoted in ESPAS, Global Trends to 2030: Can the EU meet the challenges ahead? 2015) 2

3 Forward Looking combines models, stories and scenarios StoriesModels More quantitative More qualitative Integration Board Meta-Models

Forward Looking is.. Beyond predictive forecasting Exploring a plurality of possible scenarios Can be complemented with backcasting to deliver policy advice and roadmaps to desirable futures

5 TIME SUSTAINABILITY FIT (economic, social, environmental) Seeds of change METAMORPHOSIS SCENARIOS PERSEVERANCE SCENARIOS SHIFT POINT When phenomena now at the periphery (e.g. new technologies and paradigms) will become dominant In the cards SOCIO- TECHNICAL TRANSITIONS AND GAME CHANGERS 2050 END POINTS FORWARD LOOKING FRAMEWORK – THREE HORIZONS MODEL PLOT 1° Horizon (now) 2° Horizon (near future) 3° Horizon (far future) Backcasting analysis of implications for policies Currently dominant phenomena Phenomena at the Periphery Current strategic policy package Next strategic policy package Forward Looking in transition times …

Global Targets TIME SUSTAINABILITY TARGETS (economic, social, environmental) SCENARIOS IMPACT PLOT 1° Horizon (now) 2° Horizon (near future) 3° Horizon (far future) IMPACT 100% Range of possible Metamorphosis Scenarios achievements Range of possible Perseverance Scenarios achievements PERSEVERANCE WITH CURRENT POLICIES & PARADIGMS (Horizon 1) METAMORPHOSIS TO NEW POLICIES & PARADIGMS (Horizon 2) TOO BAD GOOD …. BUT NOT ENOUGH BEST DISAPPOINTING … to achieve sustainability targets

Metamorphosis Roadmap SUSTAINABILITY FIT (economic, social, environmental) Perseverance Roadmap Backcasting of alternative futures

8 How perseverance looks like … SLOW GLOBAL GROWTH AHEAD … Global demographic ageing Declining investment rate Uncertain prospects of innovation and policy reforms Working age (15-64) population by regions, in thousands,

9 BEYOND is not WITHOUT, but a world with more and new options to address: 1.Beyond oil, there will be still oil reserves, but much more renewables and energy saving. 2.Beyond waste, we will have still end-of-pipe waste, but a lot of materials will be recycled or their needs reduced (circular economy). 3.Beyond carbon, there will be still carbon emissions, but not in excess as they are today. Beyond perseverance, how metamorphosis looks like … Energy and environmental challenges 4.Beyond migration, we will have still global migratory flows, but not accelerated as they are today and accompanied by more integration and inter-culturalism. 5.Beyond retirement, there will be still pensions and social welfare outlays, but more equitably distributed and accompanied with more active and healthy ageing. Demographic challenges

10 6.Beyond capitalism, there will be still capitalistic markets, but these will be no more the only form – nor the dominant one – of exchange and value creation. 7.Beyond consumerism, we will have still growing consumption, but mostly of services and intangibles – and with a growing contribution of collaborative forms of consumption/sharing. 8.Beyond the Internet of Things, we will have a socially responsible and more equitable development of the information society. 9.Beyond GDP, we will measure other aspects of progress as well, using sustainable development indicators to gauge population well-being, ecosystems health and resilience, social cohesion. 10.Beyond nations, we will have still nation states, but no more borders, and regional cooperation and solidarity across nations - as well as a greater involvement of cosmopolitan and locally empowered citizens - will become key elements of the future global and territorial governance. Beyond perseverance, how metamorphosis looks like … Economic and societal challenges

Fit to sustainable development goals TIME STRATEGIC FIT Degree of strategic fit with external environment BAU Scenario SHIFT Scenario More healthy, educated and active populations globally Remaining (but smaller) gaps between healthy and unhealhy, rich and poor, high and low skilled population Population diversity between and within countries and generations; declining working age population in rich countries,growing elsewhere, resistance to large scale Immigration In rich countries Demographic and education changes Major medical breakthroughts and acceleration of demographic transition; more free-time and balanced work-family patterns, less need for large-scale migration Anticipatory scenario leading to a «sustainable and desirable» world Reactive scenario leading to a «good, but not enough» world GLOBAL METAMORPHOSIS TO A SUSTAINABLE PROGRESS PARADIGM GLOBAL PERSEVERANCE WITH THE CURRENT ECONOMIC GROWTH PARADIGM Global progress measured by means of economic, resource efficiency, environmental and well-being indicators END POINTS BIFURCATION POINT Population ageing

Fit to sustainable development goals TIME STRATEGIC FIT Degree of strategic fit with external environment BAU Scenario SHIFT Scenario PostCapitalism model of inclusive development «Winners takes all» Digital Economy Rising eco-industries, social and collaborative economy Economy and innovation changes Slow GDP growth & wealth inequality Anticipatory scenario leading to a «sustainable and desirable» world Reactive scenario leading to a «good, but not enough» world GLOBAL METAMORPHOSIS TO A SUSTAINABLE PROGRESS PARADIGM GLOBAL PERSEVERANCE WITH THE CURRENT ECONOMIC GROWTH PARADIGM Global progress measured by means of economic, resource efficiency, environmental and well-being indicators END POINTS BIFURCATION POINT Information Society

Fit to sustainable development goals TIME STRATEGIC FIT Degree of strategic fit with external environment BAU Scenario SHIFT Scenario Circular economy model Green Growth Smart and clean consumerism Sustainable production and consumption, behavioural change Energy and environmental changes Anticipatory scenario leading to a «sustainable and desirable» world Reactive scenario leading to a «good, but not enough» world GLOBAL METAMORPHOSIS TO A SUSTAINABLE PROGRESS PARADIGM GLOBAL PERSEVERANCE WITH THE CURRENT ECONOMIC GROWTH PARADIGM Global progress measured by means of economic, resource efficiency, environmental and well-being indicators END POINTS BIFURCATION POINT Climate Change

Fit to sustainable development goals TIME STRATEGIC FIT Degree of strategic fit with external environment Political Union (one constitution, one army, one foreign policy) Fiscal Union (European VAT, Carbon Tax, Corporate tax, Progressive tax on wealth). EU budget: 10% of GDP EU «Brusselisation» EU budget: 2% of GDP Anticipatory scenario leading to a «sustainable and desirable» world Reactive scenario leading to a «good, but not enough» world GLOBAL METAMORPHOSIS TO A SUSTAINABLE PROGRESS PARADIGM GLOBAL PERSEVERANCE WITH THE CURRENT ECONOMIC GROWTH PARADIGM Financial, democratic and external tensions Global progress measured by means of economic, resource efficiency, environmental and well-being indicators BAU Scenario SHIFT Scenario EU Governance changes BIFURCATION POINT END POINTS More intergovernamental coordination for EU policy priorities (completion of single market, energy, environment, defense & foreign policy, migration, fight against unemployment, poverty, corruption) Eurozone consolidation and debt mutualization Harmonization of national electoral laws, cycles and formation of European parties European citizens empowerment European Parliament iniative for a new constitution (ex. Art. 48 of TEU) Non euro countries (UK, Denmark) move to EEA after referenda Governance Change

The FLAGSHIP Forward Looking architecture 15 HOW DO WE GET THERE? EU GOVERNANCE & POLICY 2050 GLOBAL STORYLINES Where do we get: Metamorphosis Vision KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS & META-MODELLING GDP/GNI Labour Productivity Total Factor Productivity Working time Healthy life Resource Productivity Planetary Boundary Indicators Future Welfare Indicators FUTURE OUTCOMES QUANTIITATIVE IMPACT ASSESSMENT (Modelling based) Where do we get: Perseverance Vision DRIVERS OF CHANGE & GAME CHANGERS GLOBAL GOVERNANCE SCENARIOS TERRITORIAL GOVERNANCE SCENARIOS DEMOGRAPHIC SCENARIOS GEOPOLITICAL CHANGES CLIMATE POLICY TARGETS

Thank you for your attention! Carlo Sessa – FLAGSHIP is Funded by the 7 th Framework Programme of the European Union

17 Just a last question … What does “sustainable productivity” means to you?