1 March Q04 Results 4Q04 Results GFNORTE
Results 2.Securitization of IPAB Loans 3.Relevant Events 4.Economic Outlook 5.Final Remarks
Results
GFNorte Highlights MILLION PESOS 8% 5% 122% 16% 2% 153% 2, % , % ,3392, %4.9% 12% 21% 80% 64% Performing loans Past due loan ratio Reserve Coverage Net Income Net Income w/o extraordinary charge ROAE Stock Price EPS P/BV Net Interest Margin
5 GFNorte´s Net Income MILLION PESOS 4Q03 Banking Long Term Savings Auxiliary Organizations Holding GFNORTE Brokerage 4Q Var% % 1, , , (6) 2, (2) % 55% 136% 28% 580% (21)% 16% 4% 16% (166)% 12% (29)% * * Includes $204 of extraordinary charges.
6 Profitability & Efficiency ROAE 23.5% 4Q % 4Q03 Efficiency Ratio 59% 4Q04 80% 4Q03
7 Bank
8 MILLION PESOS 4Q034Q04VAR % VAR % Net Interest Income after Repomo 2,1732,73326%8,7509,5219% Services %2,2963,01831% Recovery386113(71%)827558(33%) Foreign Exchange8942(53%)415390(6%) Trading (77) % (25%) Non Interest Income 1,0331,0805%4,0054,3158% Total Income 3,2063,81319%12,75513,8369% Non Interest Expense (2,569)(2,275)(11%)(9,872)(9,941)1% Net Operating Income 6371,538141%2,8833,89535% Non Operating Income, net (88)(57)(35%)(53)27150% Income tax and profit sharing (31)(284)816%(103)(552)436% Net Income %2,0532,38816% Loan loss and loss Shar. Provistions 6(369)(6,250%)(829)(1,157)40% * INCLUDES $202 OF EXTRAORDINARY CHARGES. * * Subsidiaries and minority interest % % Banking Sector´s Income Statement
9 NIM vs CETESCETES NIM Q032Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q Q04 56% 70% 77% PERCENT 4Q
10 Non Interest Income Recovery 21% Trading & Fx 22% Service Fees 57% Recovery 13% Trading & Fx 17% Service Fees 70% 2,2963,018 31% SERVICE FEES MILLION PESOS
11 Expenses % 72% 81% EFFICIENCY RATIO * Includes $0.2 of the extraordinary charges. * % 2001 * 70% WITHOUT EXTRAORDINARY CHARGES Total Expense BILLION PESOS
12 Core Deposits Demand5768 Time32 35 Total89103 Mix Demand64%66% Time36%34% 100% % 34% 100% Deposits BILLION PESOS
13 % of CETES Core Deposits Mix Cost 33% 4Q03 27% 4Q04
14 Performing Loan Portfolio 4Q033Q044Q04 QoQYoY 4Q033Q044Q %21% 15 14(4%)(9%) %36% Total %8%18% %4%24% BILLION PESOS % Commercial Corporate Government Consumer
15 Performing Consumer Loan Portfolio 4Q033Q044Q %12% 3448%34% 1225%61% Consumer %24% Automobile Credit Cards Payroll Loans %24% Mortgage 4Q033Q044Q04 BILLION PESOS % QoQYoY
16 Asset Quality Past Due Loan Loan Loss Reserves 4Q033Q044Q04 Reserve Coverage Past Due Loan Ratio (exc. IPAB) 153% 122% 128% 4Q033Q044Q04 2.0% 4.8% 3.4% 4Q033Q044Q04 Total Loan Portfolio BILLION PESOS
17 Recovery Bank
18 Recovery Bank Net Income Banorte Risk 49% IPAB & Serfin 51% Banorte Risk 28% IPAB & Serfin 72% MILLION PESOS
19 Recovery Bank ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT BILLION PESOS Banorte risk (owned + auctions) Serfin Portfolio IPAB Portfolio (servicing)
20 Capitalization Ratio Tier 1 Tier 2 TOTAL 10.5%11.4%12.2% 2.2%3.8%4.0% 12.7%15.3%16.2% 4Q033Q044Q04
21 Long Term Savings Sector
22 Afore ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT BILLION PESOS CUSTOMERS Millions
23 Insurance GROSS PREMIUMS SOLD BILLION PESOS CUSTOMERS Millions
24 Contribution to GFNorte’s Net Income … LONG TERM SAVINGS SECTOR 2002 Afore4% Insurance4% Annuities1% 9% 10% 8% % 2% 0% 5% 4% 1%
25 2. Securitization of IPAB Loans
26 Securitization Structure Sale of 46 billion pesos of IPAB loans (Bancrecer) to a trust. The trust issues medium term notes to the market, guaranteed by IPAB loans. AAA ratings by the 3 rating agencies. No impact in stockholder’s equity. Funding: out of Banorte’s balance sheet. Largest securities offering in the history of Mexico.
27 Total Loan Portfolio TOTAL LOAN PORTFOLIO IPAB / FOBAPROA % 71% 66% 59% 51% 3Q % 79% 29% 34% 41% 49% 53% % 12% BILLION PESOS
28 Banking’s Sector Balance Sheet WITHOUT SECURITIZATION ACTUAL 216 Loan Portfolio 88 Others70 IPAB58 Deposits101 MoneyMarket 74 Capital Loan Portfolio 88 Others70 IPAB12 Deposits101 MoneyMarket 28 Capital14 Others27 Others27 BILLION PESOS
29 Transformation of Funding Mix Money Market 44% Core 56% Money Market 21% Core 79%
30 Benefits Savings of Ps 180 millions per year in IPAB fees. Less pressure in the money market funding. Clearer financial statements. Decontamination of financial ratios (ROA and NIM). Significant reduction of IPAB loans.
31 3. Relevants Events
32 Relevant Events Acquisition of a corporate building in Mexico City. 23,000 square meters in 16 stories. Sale of 8 buildings for a total of US $42 Million. Total investment of US $63 Million. Significant synergies.
33
34 Relevant Events Securitization of the Toll Road Monterrey - Cadereyta Amount: 2,250 million pesos in UDIS. Maturity: 25 years. Institutional Investors. AAA global rating. Awarded: “Infrastructure Deal of the Year” in the American Continent by “Project Finance International”. Innovative features: term and single guarantee. Sólida acquired 7,153 million pesos of distressed assets in 4Q04.
35 4. Economic Outlook
36 v Mexico will post a 3.8% real rate of growth during 2005 boosted by stronger domestic demand. - The economy grew 4.4% during 2004, driven mainly by external demand. - Non oil exports increased 13.1% YOY. - Strong consumption and investment are expected to lead economic activity during Investment grew 6.3% during the first eleven months of 2004, while retail sales increased 4.6% during the same period. - The labor market is still weak, even though 319,000 jobs were created in 2004, and 400,000 are expected for this year. Mexico’s debt has been upgraded. - Public debt management continues to be proactive, shielding the economy against higher interest rates. - Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s raised Mexico’s foreign currency debt rating. - The current account deficit will be around 2.0% of GDP during 2005, helped by the oil windfall and strong remittances. - Tax revenues continue to be low relative to GDP, and highly dependent on oil income. Economic Outlook
37 Economic Outlook Inflation is easing, but risks remain. - During 2004, supply shocks pushed CPI to 5.19% and PPI to 6.52%. - Inflation is starting to ease, but medium and long-term inflation expectations remain high. - Core CPI is the main concern, at 3.80% in december Strong demand and wage negotiations could exert upward pressures on prices in A tight monetary stance will prevail over the medium term. - We expect the peso to be relatively strong during the first half of the year. 2006 Presidential Elections will attract markets’ attention. - The political enviroment will start playing a role in markets’ behavior in the second half of the year. - Little –if anything- will be achieved in terms of structural reforms.
38 Economic Outlook GDP1.3% Inflation3.98% 28 daysCete rate (End of period)6.06% 28 daysCete rate (Average)6.22% Peso exchange rate (End of period) e 4.4% 5.19% 8.50% % e 3.8% 3.80% 8.45% 8.81% 11.70
39 5. Final Remarks
40 GFNorte: 2004 Relevant Events Loan Portfolio transformation. Orientation to Consumer and SME´s loans. Cleaning up of past due loans. Earnings quality. Efficiency program. Securitization of IPAB loans. Market cap.
41 Loan Portfolio Transformation Corporate 38% Commercial 27% Government 10% Consumer 25% Corporate 16% Commercial 34% Government 16% Consumer 34% $66 billion pesos $84 billion pesos 27 % ORIENTATION TO CONSUMER
42 Loan Portfolio Transformation Reserve Coverage Past Due Loan Ratio (exc. IPAB) 153% 122% 128% 4Q033Q044Q04 2.0% 4.8% 3.4% 4Q033Q044Q04 CLEANING UP OF PAST DUE LOANS
43 Market Cap CAGR 47% 3,174 1,751 1,224 1, Dec'00Dec'01Dec'02Dec'03Dec’04 MILLION DOLLARS
44 GFNorte’s Stock Daily Volume 1Q033Q031Q043Q042Q034Q032Q044Q04 MILLION DOLLARS DAILY AVERAGE