Coastal Habitats in San Diego: Sea Level Rise & Implications for Adaptation PI: Dr Rick Gersberg, SDSU GIS: Kayo Watanabe, SDSU Warren Pinnacle Consulting J. Kovecses, San Diego Coastkeeper Ocean & Weather Changes Impacting Business and Infrastructure Conference March 4, 2011

San Diego Coastkeeper

Setting the Stage 1.Goal = how will coastal habitat change? 2.Communication > adaptation 3.San Diego Foundation local driver

Coastal Habitats of San Diego

SLAMM! Processes: Inundation Erosion Overwash Saturation Accretion

Impacts of Sea Level Rise San Diego Bay Initial A1B Maximum, m, 2100

Impacts of Sea Level Rise ‘Unprotected’ 2m‘Protected’ 2m

Changes at the Regional Level San Diego is predicted to lose: A1B max scenario (0.7 m rise) 20% of its Tidal Swamp 43% of its Ocean Beach 4% of its Tidal Fresh Marsh Under more extreme scenarios (1.5m rise), 5% of its Developed Land 35% of its Tidal Swamp 35% of its Ocean Beach 42% of its Tidal Fresh Marsh

Flood Risk From ICLEI Existing Conditions Rpt, modeling by Dr. Gersberg

Challenges for Local Adaptation Management

Coastkeeper Focus identify vulnerabilities & plan holistically Just say no to cement Involve stakeholders Incorporating space for habitats to change – Comprehensive shoreline management plans – Leveraging other opportunities (Low Impact Dev)

Local Example – Chula Vista Port of San Diego

Thank You!