Masahiro Yamamoto Senior Tsunami Advisor Trinidad, June 2007 Effective and Reliable End-to-End Tsunami Warning Systems: TWC Standard Operating Procedures Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission

2 Earthquake Tsunami Tsunami Warning Center International - Regional Framework National Warning System Public Awareness National Government Local Government People Mass Media Where is Evacuation Route? What is Tsunami? TSUNAMI Early Warning Overview Cabinet Office Japan Hazard Risk Assessment Warning Guidance Mitigation - Preparedness

3 Upstream: Detection, verification, threat evaluation, tsunami forecast, warning dissemination => Must have same quality every time Downstream: Delivery of public safety message, Prepare / carry out standardized reaction (evacuate people, announce ‘all-clear’ when safe to return) End-to-End Tsunami Warning Systems

4 TWO ENTITIES CRITICAL: 3. EWS SUSTAINABILITY – ALL-HAZARDS NEEDED 4. COORDINATION / DATA SHARING ESSENTIAL 1. WARNING CENTER provides warning Local (educate), distant (monitor and warn) 2. DMO (recognized authority) receives warning immediately evaluates/translates disseminates public action Also, hazard / risk / preparedness  BOTH MUST WORK CLOSELY TOGETHER IMPLEMENTING an EFFECTIVE EWS

5 MOST TIMELY WARNINGS - HOW?  TO ACT FAST WITHOUT CONFUSION, - KNOW WHAT TO DO - KNOW WHAT TO DO Develop/implement TWC and TERP SOP Develop/implement TWC and TERP SOP - PRACTICE - PRACTICE Test communications, end-to-end Test communications, end-to-end Conduct Drills since tsunamis infrequent Conduct Drills since tsunamis infrequent BEST, LONG-TERM PREPAREDNESS - HOW?  BUILD TSUNAMI ADVOCACY GROUPS - Resilient self-motivated, communities - Resilient self-motivated, communities - People-centered - People-centered - No simple process, no simple answers - No simple process, no simple answers TAKING ACTION - WHAT TO DO TAKING ACTION - WHAT TO DO

Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) for Tsunami Warning Centers Objectives Objectives Concepts of Operation Concepts of Operation Standard Operating Procedures Standard Operating Procedures

7 Taking Action – What to do Timely Warnings from TWC – How? Careful monitoring Need to act (fast) without confusion Have and Give clear instruction Quick analysis and evaluation Appropriate decision making needs clear criteria Delegated Authority - No time to get a highest level approval/instruction No hesitation to update Same quality at any time and every time

8 Standard Operational Procedure (SOP) “A description and procedure on agreed steps by TWC used in coordinating Who, What, When, Where How for tsunami early warning”

9 Standard Operational Procedures How to develop? Emphasize Step-by-step Focus on minimum requirement Focus on minimum requirement Developed using real scenarios (what should happen if …) Developed using real scenarios (what should happen if …) Confirm by drill/exercise Confirm by drill/exercise Updated by daily operations Updated by daily operations Updated by missed-operations - so that same mistake NOT repeated Updated by missed-operations - so that same mistake NOT repeated Share experiences among NTWC and TWCs Share experiences among NTWC and TWCs Trouble shooting Trouble shooting

10 OccurrenceEarthquake GenerationTsunami Detection: Seismic Wave Determination: Magnitude, Hypocenter Evaluation: Tsunami Issuance: Tsunami Warning Issuance: Tsunami Information Detection: Tsunami Tsunami Network of seismographs Real time data processing system Criteria for Tsunami grade Criteria for Tsunami grade Communication facility to disseminate Tsunami Warning Components of tsunami warning system Network of tide gauge to monitor tsunami What we need for Tsunami Warning Real time data transmission Re- evaluation: Tsunami Tsunami

USERS GUIDE FOR IOTWS INTERIM TSUNAMI ADVISORY INFO SVC GENERAL MANUAL GENERAL MANUAL TWC STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES TWC STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES BULLETINS AND THEIR MEANING BULLETINS AND THEIR MEANING DESIGNATED 7x24 TSUNAMI WARNING FOCAL POINTS DESIGNATED 7x24 TSUNAMI WARNING FOCAL POINTS

12 Sample SOP (1) Chapter 1: General information Role/Mission of NTWC Role/Mission of NTWC Strategy Strategy Chapter 2: Monitoring network, processing and dissemination system Status Status Trouble shooting Trouble shooting Station/Network management Station/Network management

13 Sample SOP (2) Chapter 3: Local Tsunami Criteria of Warning and Information Criteria of Warning and Information Location procedure Location procedure Magnitude determination Magnitude determination Evaluation procedure of the result Evaluation procedure of the result Decision making criteria Decision making criteria Re-Evaluation procedure based on the additional information Re-Evaluation procedure based on the additional information Back up procedure, in case Back up procedure, in case

14 Sample SOP (3) Chapter 4: Distant Tsunami Same as Local Tsunami Same as Local Tsunami Chapter 5: Daily Operation/Maintenance Check list Check list Exercise/Training Exercise/Training System/Network maintenance System/Network maintenance

15 Coordination with Relevant Organizations for Effective Tsunami Warning （ Example, JMA)

16 JMA... Issues tsunami warning Takes measures for dissemination of tsunami warning Makes efforts to disseminate tsunami warning to the public, asking for cooperation of the media L ocal governments... Disseminate tsunami warning to the residents Warn the residents and relevant organizations to take actions against the expected disasters Transmission and Dissemination of Tsunami Warning

17 A. Tsunami Warning (the first issuance) Regions where tsunamis are expected Grade of the tsunamis at each region B. Tsunami Warning (2 nd message) Expected arrival time and height of tsunamis at each region C. Tide and Tsunami Information (updated info.) Time of the highest tide with expected arrival time of tsunamis D. Tsunami Observations Information (updated info.) Observed tsunami information at tide stations JMA’s Tsunami Warning

18 Example of Tsunami Warning Tsunami Warning Issued by Seismological and Volcanological Department, JMA Issued at Jul 1997 (JST) [Forecasted Arrival Time and Height of Tsunami] RegionForecasted Arrival TimeExpected Height Northern Part of Pacific Coast of Hokkaidoarrived6m Southern Part of Pacific Coast of Hokkaidoarrived10m< Japan Sea Coast of Aomori Pref.arrived3m Western Part of Pacific Coast of Hokkaido Jul1m Okhotsk Sea Coast of Hokkaido Jul1m Akita Pref Jul1m Yamagata Pref Jul1m Niigata Pref., Except Sadogashima Island Jul1m Sadogashima Island Jul2m Noto Area, Ishikawa Pref Jul2m Fukui Pref Jul1m Kyoto Pref Jul1m Northern Part of Hyogo Pref Jul1m Tottori Pref Jul1m Shimane Pref., Except Oki Islands Jul1m Oki Islands Jul2m Japan Sea Coast of Yamaguchi Pref Jul1m Central Part of Pacific Coast of Hokkaido Jul0.5m Mutsu Bay Jul0.5m Pacific Coast of Aomori Pref.arrived0.5m Toyama Pref Jul0.5m Kaga Area, Ishikawa Pref Jul0.5m Japan Sea Coast of Fukuoka Pref Jul0.5m Iki Island and Tsushima Islands Jul0.5m Note the actual tsunamis can be higher than our estimation at some parts of the coasts. No damage at some of the other coasts though there may be slight sea level changes from now on. [Epicenter and Magnitude] Time of Earthquake Occurrence: 22:17 12 July (JST) Source Location: Southwest Off Hokkaido (42.8 degree North degree East) Focal Depth: about 50km Magnitude 7.3

19 In the Past... Relays by voice-Phone; takes a time 20 minutes or more Currently in seconds More Quickly - Transmission of warning message on-line basis. More Reliable Delivery Devices - Dedicated communication line - Back-up transmission routes Means for Transmission of Tsunami Warning to Relevant Organizations

20 Seminars / Symposiums Joint staff meetings / discussions Development of national / regional plans including communication plan with relevant organizations Drills by different scenarios Ideas for Strengthening Cooperation with National Organizations, Local Governments and Broadcasting Companies

21 Tsunami may arrive before residents receive tsunami warnings Share Understanding of the Limitation of Tsunami Forecast Technique and NOT Rely Only on Tsunami Warnings Build Up Public Awareness When a strong shake is felt, leave the seashore immediately and evacuate to the safety place even if a tsunami warning is not issued (Solomon Tsunami in Apr. 2007) Complementary Note