IR313 EU AS A GLOBAL ACTOR THE BALKANS AND TURKEY

SUMMARY  In 1990s EU failed to deal effectively with the breakup of the former Yugoslavia  It had to rely on the U.S intervening twice to stop Serbian aggression  The EU’s early failures and the Kosovo war spurred the EU into a more coherent and strategic policy towards the Balkans  Gradually, the EU developed a road map for membership agreed in the Thessaloniki in 2003  The EU played an important role in the downfall of Milosevic and brokered agreements in Bosnia, Kosovo and Macedonia  The Balkans remained important as instability there whether political, economic or social affects the stability of the member states

The Balkans  The Balkans is a peninsula area in Southeast Europe with different and disputed borders. The region takes its name from the Balkan Mountains that stretch from the east of Serbia to the Black Sea at the east of Bulgaria.  The Balkans meet the Adriatic Sea on the northwest, Ionian Sea on the southwest, the Mediterranean and Aegean Sea on the south and southeast, and the Black Sea on the east and northeast.  Western Balkans, which are usually said to comprise Albania, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, and Serbia.

The Balkans  Throughout history, the Balkan region has always been a volatile area  The areas were part of the Roman Empire at one time and also had been part of the Ottoman Empire  During the Ottoman rule, a lot of people in the region had converted to Islam  Religion played an integral part in preserving national identities especially after the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire  Religious and ethnic tension continued to spread in the Balkan territories which eventually sparked the First World War  The tension and conflict has continued all throughout the 1990s..

The Balkans  The Balkans has been a major testing ground for the EU’s in terms of developing its international role and in particular of the CFSP and the ESDP.  Now EU is widely recognised as the most important actor in the region  It has poured huge sums of money into reconstruction, engaged in conflict prevention and crisis management, promoted regime change throughout South-East Europe and agreed a road map that led to eventual EU membership.

INTRODUCTION 1. The role of the EU in the Western Balkans has been strengthening since the end of the wars in the region at the end of 1990s. 2. The major framework for EU’s relations with the Western Balkans is the Process of Stabilisation and Association. 3. The EU has granted membership perspective to Western Balkans countries. 4. Challenges in the future

STRONG ROLE OF EU IN THE REGION  The first initiative with a strong EU support: Stability Pact in 1999  EU Missions of civil crisis management and first EU military missions launched in the area of Western Balkans – Western Balkans as learning ground for Common Foreign, Security and Defence Policy  EU Police Mission to Bosnia and Herzegovina: first mission under European Security and Defence Policy (launched in January 2003)  Concordia: first EU military operation in FYROM (March to December 2003)  Proxima: EU police mission to FYROM (launched in December 2003)  Althea: EU military operation in Bosnia and Herzegovina (launched in July 2004)  Process of Stabilisation and Association.

STABILISATION AND ASSOCIATION PROCESS (I)  After wars in republics of ex-Yugoslavia had ended, the EU decided to launch a long term approach to the region of Western Balkans in 1999 by introducing Stabilisation and Association Process (SAP)  Ideas underpinning the SAP: i) close relation with the EU and a prospect of eventual accession to the EU can encourage Western Balkan countries in their political, economic and social reforms; ii) a need for enhancing regional co-operation.

STABILISATION AND ASSOCIATION PROCESS (II)  Main elements of the Stabilisation and Association Process: 1. Preparation for Stabilisation and Association Agreements (SAA)  EU proposes signing a Stabilisation and Association Agreement when a country is prepared for it. 2. Negotiating, signing and implementing SAA  SAA represents a legal framework for co-operation between Western Balkan countries and the EU,  Agreement for each country is tailored to its specific needs and circumstances.

STABILISATION AND ASSOCIATION PROCESS (III)  Contents of SAA (e.g. SAA with Croatia)  political dialogue (respect of fundamental democratic principles);  regional co-operation (foster good neighbourly relations);  the four freedoms, with the creation of a free trade area by 2007 for industrial products and most agricultural products;  approximation of the legislation of Croatia to the EU acquis;  wide-ranging co-operation in all areas of EU policies, including in the area of justice, freedom and security;  trade provisions of the SAA asymmetrically in favour of Croatia.

STABILISATION AND ASSOCIATION PROCESS (IV)  Regional Co-operation  Besides development of close bilateral relations with each partner country SAP has a strong regional component.  Fulfilling the criterion of regional co-operation is a condition for progressing in the SAP.  EU’s policy objectives: i) close contractual relations between countries in the region; ii) Free trade agreements iii) Gradual integration of the region into European infrastructure networks (e.g. transport, energy etc) iv) regional co-operation against common threats (e.g. organised crimes, illegal immigration etc).

STABILISATION AND ASSOCIATION PROCESS (V)  Financial Assistance to Western Balkans countries – CARDS  Community Assistance for Reconstruction, Development and Stabilisation, is the EU's main instrument of financial assistance to the Western Balkans, covering specifically the countries of Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Kosovo and Albania.  Supports the objectives and mechanism of SAP – financial help to the region in order to meet obligations from SAA  For the period the EU has provided € 5.4 billion to achieve the following objectives: i) reconstruction, democratic stabilisation, reconciliation, return of refugees; ii) Institutional and legislative development; iii) Sustainable economic and social development; iv) Promote regional co-operation.

STABILISATION AND ASSOCIATION PROCESS(VI)  State of play  FYRoM: SAA signed in 2001, entered into force in April 2005;  Croatia: SAA signed in 2001, entered into force in February 2005  Albania: SAA signed on 12 June 2006, expected to be ratified in 2 years.  Montenegro: SAA negotiations with Montenegro are launched - First Official Round and First technical Round on 26 September December 2006: technical part of SAA negotiations is completed. SAA signed in October  Serbia: Launching the negotiations for SAA in October Negotiations with Serbia and Montenegro called off on 3 May 2006 as the country did not fulfil its commitment to fully co-operate with the ICTY. SAA- signed in january  Bosnia and Herzegovina: negotiations for conclusion of SAA opened in November : Technical talks for a SAA are finalised, but the initialling and signature of the Agreement depend on political conditions.

MEMBERSHIP PERSPECTIVE FOR WESTERN BALKANS  The EU granted membership perspective to the Western Balkans (European Council in Feira (PT) in 2000, reaffirmed several times).  Significance of membership perspective: i) It has proved to be a very successful and effective external policy tool of the EU. ii) Combined with objectives of the SAP it is a crucial motivator for stabilisation, democratisation of the Western Balkans and for further reforms. iii) Countries’ commitments to the EU defined in SAAs; progress towards the EU depends on how quickly and effectively countries deliver their commitments – principle of conditionality.  Croatia and FYROM given candidate status in June 2004 and December 2005 respectively.  Croatia started accession negotiations in October 2005.

FUTURE CHALLENGES IN EU-WB RELATIONS Challenges for the Western Balkans:  Successfully meet the EU commitments and make progress in the SAP (regional co-operation, cooperation with the ICTY, legal approximation etc.)  Post-conflict reconciliation process, finding a long-term solution to minority questions  Achieve a sustained economic and social development  Question of future status of Kosovo?  Possible constitutional reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina?  Maintain sufficient support of domestic public for reforms and progress in the SAP.

FUTURE CHALLENGES IN EU-WB RELATIONS Challenges for the EU:  To respond successfully to the challenges facing the Western Balkans and help the region to make further progress.  Absorption capacity of the EU after 2004/2007 enlargement? Enlargement fatigue?  Political support for further EU enlargement has been vanishing in some Member States.  Negative referendums on the Constitutional Treaty – no legal basis for further enlargement.  Public concerns for further enlargement in the EU.

FUTURE CHALLENGES IN EU-WB RELATIONS Challenges facing the EU:  Commission’s enlargement strategy published in November 2005 attempts to respond to these challenges by suggesting: i) Consolidating EU’s commitments to enlargement: EU should not abandon enlargement as a successful external policy tool, ii) Applying fair and rigorous conditionality: EU must demand fulfilment of its criteria, but should reward progress fairly and duly, iii) Communicating enlargement: to better communicate objectives and challenges of enlargement.

FUTURE CHALLENGES IN EU-WB RELATIONS  Challenges facing the EU:  Commission’s communication: The Western Balkans on the road to the EU: consolidating stability and raising prosperity (January 2006) i) Reaffirming that the Western Balkans remains high on the EU agenda ii) A basis for further discussion of enlargement issues under the future EU presidency.

EU AND TURKEY  Turkey signed an association agreement with EEC (first step to membership) in  Czech Republic signed an association agreement in  Turkey submitted a formal application for membership in  Poland and Hungary applied in  Turkey has been a candidate for EU membership since Accession negotiations started in  As a major emerging economy and a member of NATO and the G20, Turkey is a key partner for the European Union.

EU AND TURKEY  EU granted financial assistance and preferential tariffs initially but during the 70s and early 80s gradual, mutual reductions in tariffs and non-tariff barriers were suspended.  Customs Union started in 1996 and completed in  Industrial goods between Turkey and EU are free from tariffs and quantitative restrictions.  Turkey has aligned its trade policies with the EU.  (A customs union is a type of trade bloc which is composed of a free trade area with a common external tariff. The participant countries set up common external trade policy, but in some cases they use different import quotas.)

EU AND TURKEY  The agreement with Turkey goes beyond a normal Customs Union.  It also covers the harmonization of technical legislation, the elimination of monopolies and the protection of intellectual property.  Negotiations continue on the mutual opening of public procurement markets, liberalization of trade in services, and the abolition of restrictions on the freedom of establishment.  In Helsinki (1999) Turkey became the only candidate for membership without a timetable.  Cooperation for adopting the legal framework (acquis communautaire).  In Nice (2000) a revision of vote distribution excluded Turkey implying that EU-15 did not plan for Turkey to become a member in the foreseeable future.

COPENHAGEN CRITERIA  The Progress Report in 2002 stated that Turkey did not fulfill the Copenhagen (1993) criteria of political and human rights.  Political and human rights: “stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities.”  COPENHAGEN CRITERIA  Economic criteria declared to be fulfilled in 2003 Progress Report: harmonizing with EU in terms of electricity, financial services, agriculture and telecommunications.  Progress Report in October 2004 acknowledged fulfillment of the political and human rights criteria.  “Major political developments in the country led to the decision to open accession negotiations at the December 2004 European Council summit.” ROMANO PRODI, THE PRESIDENT OF THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION, Ankara, 14 January 2004

EU OBJECTIONS  “Turkey is too big; it will be the most populous country in EU.”  “Turkey is not developed economically in comparison to other EU member states.”  “Turkish people will flood Europe.”  “Turkish people have a different culture.”

GDP per capita  Lowest GDP Per Capita  Mass immigration into Europe  Flood of labor markets  Lower real wages in Europe

Demographics  74.9 Million  Almost equal to 2004 Enlargement (74.7 Million)  99% Muslim – will change religious balance within the EU from 3% to 20% Muslim

Unemployment  10.2% Unemployment  Highest after Poland and Slovakia  Coupled with large population – will flood EU with poor labor

Geopolitics  Only 3% of Turkey is geographically in Europe  Does not include Ankara  Will extend EU border to Syria, Iraq, Iran, Armenia, Georgia

Turkey Is Knocking, but EU Is Hesitating by BBC news Since when do you toss a rotten apple into the barrel to improve the diversity of the pippins and macintoshes? Europe is planning its own cultural demise by aquiescing to the demands of Turkey to be admitted to the EU, which will allow the free flow of Turkish Muslims throughout Europe. Officials are aware of the dangers, but are willing to plunge ahead anyway, despite all the recent Muslim violence and the chasm of culture. In Turkey, the practice of "honor killing" continues, and dozens of girls and women are murdered annually for affronts to impossibly rigid gender behavior codes. As is increasingly the case in modern "democracies," multiculturalism-brainwashed elites in government are ignoring the polls which show their citizens reject the scheme. Seventy percent of Germans believe that Islamic culture does not fit in the west, and 55 percent are against Turkey's EU entry, as are 67 percent of the French. The BBC believes Turkey's EU inclusion will "disprove the theory of a clash of civilisations between Islam and the West" — as if a political union could end the tribal nature of human psychology or obliterate a thousand years of enmity.

Thousands took to the streets in Milan Dec. 19 to protest Turkey's accession to the EU, calling it a "Muslim invasion." In a statement, leader of the Northern League Umberto Bossi said, "Without our history we are dead, our history is not up for sale." Organizers estimated that 50,000 took part in the demonstrations. Justice Minister Roberto Castelli spoke to the crowd gathered around Milan's gothic cathedral and asked, "What will happen when 80 million Islamists with a high birth rate have the right to settle on our land?" BBC news

Valerie Giscard D’Estaing  ” It would be “the end” of the EU if Turkey were ever actually to get in. Turkey is by definition unacceptable as an EU member.”  is a French centrist politician who served as President of the French Republic from 1974 until 1981 and who is now a member of the Constitutional Council of France.

EU AND TURKEY  European Union is, above all, a community of shared values based on the principles of liberty, democracy, human rights, fundamental freedoms and the rule of law. All these values are enshrined in the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union. SPEECH OF ROMANO PRODI, THE PRESIDENT OF THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION, AT THE TURKISH GRAND NATIONAL ASSEMBLY. Ankara, 14 January 2004  The proposition that Europe can be defined by religion is a false one, not to say dangerous. In many ways, the European Union is a reaction against the idea that we can define ourselves by religion or ethnicity — and thus define others as beyond consideration. Chris Patten, EU Commissioner for External Affairs (From his May 2004 speech)

EU AND TURKEY  What is common to the modern Europe of nation-states is precisely a civic culture embedded in a secular, democratic and constitutional concept of citizenship equipped with individual rights and responsibilities.  This is the achievement of the European nation-states against the background of a painful history of wars, massacres, and expulsions that were inflamed by differences of religion, sect, race and ethnicity.  Whereas ascriptive cultures divide Europe, it is the achievement of civic culture that unites them. Prof. Ilkay Sunar

EU AND TURKEY  Turkey as a potential member needs to be judged by not the ascriptive criterion of culture but by civic standards, and not by its history but by its commitment to the same democratic culture practiced by other members of the EU.  “the accession of Turkey would be proof that Europe is committed not just in word but in deed to a Europe of diverse races, cultures, and religions all bound together by common rules and a sense of human solidarity and mutual respect.” – Tony Blair, Former UK Prime Minister

Turkey is an important ally  NATO member since 1952  Pro-Western and increasingly democratic  Contributed to military and peacekeeping actions on the Balkans and Afghanistan  EU should use its leverage to export its values to Turkey

Turkey as a strategic partner  Large Army – standing troops  Physical Presence in Middle-Eastern and Caucasus-Caspian Region  Geopolitical Significance to the Balkans, eastern Mediterranean, Middle East, Russian Region  Turkey Membership – more confident and expansive EU policy in the region  Turkey will provide capacity, local knowledge and foreign policy experience in dealing with the Middle East

Turkey Foreign Trade

Other economic benefits  Already highly integrated economy shared Customs Union with EU  Potential logistics centre in trade between EU and the Caucasus, Middle Asia and the Middle East  High consumption behaviour  If EU could take 10 new states at a single time, with overall population of 110 million, than Turkey with its 75 million should NOT be a problem as continuously stated.  Nothing about Size or Relative Wealth in the Copenhagen Criteria