Biobased Products Value Chains - Feedstocks, Products & Markets - RRM-Meeting Brussels, 13 th October 2015 Rainer Busch, T+I Consulting Dietrich Wittmeyer, ERRMA 1 Update:

2 Bio-based products‘ value chains Data situation quite good - many national/European statistics Data situation quite poor

3 Bio-based products‘ value chains Data situation quite poor

CELLULOSE 4

5 Cellulose: European Production and Trade of Cellulose (EU- 27/28)

6 Cellulose: European Consumption of Cellulose (EU-27/28)

STARCHES & SWEETENERS 7

8 European Starches & Sweeteners Production and Trade (EU-27/28)

9 European Starches & Sweeteners Consumption per Sector (EU-27/28)

SUGAR 10

11 Sugar: European Production & Trade of Sugar (EU-27/28)

12 Sugar: European Consumption of Sugar (EU-27/28)

VEGETABLE OILS 13

14 Vegetable Oils: European Production (EU-27)

15 Vegetable Oils: European Trade (EU-27)

16 Vegetable Oils: European Consumption (EU-27)

17 Vegetable Oils: European Consumption per Sector (EU-27)

ANIMAL FATS 18

19 Animal Fats: European Trade Balance (EU-27)

20 Animal Fats: European Production and Consumption (EU- 27)

21 SALES of VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL OILS AND FATS (EU-27) Source APAG: 1)Fatty Esters data are incomplete 2)Chemical use = Polymers, Rubber, Coatings, Buildings, Resins, soaps, detergents, personal care/ cosmetics, plastics, paper chemicals, lubricants, candles and waxes, tobacco, anti-freeze, automotive, pharmaceutical

22 SALES of VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL OILS AND FATS (EU-27)

PRODUCTS & MARKETS 23

24 Bio-based products‘ value chains Data situation quite poor !

25 Platform Chemicals

26 Biobased Polymers

27 Source: FUCHS AG Lubricants Recent Informatiom from FUCHS Schmierstoffe GmbH: European market for lubricants is approx. 5 MM tons On average, all lubricating agents contain at least 5% of vegetable oils  t

28 Surfactants Less than 1% of bio-based/bio-surfactants are used in food/feed applications

29 Biobased Solvents 2013 bio-based solvents market An European market of tons of bio-based solvents can be confirmed considering bio-ethanol used directly as a solvent or as a feedstock for other solvents (ethers, esters). Other bio-based solvents (alcohols, acetates) are mainly oxygenated solvents and have very low volumes representing no more than 1% of the market Source: ESIG

30 Composites

31 Biobased Solvents Solvents and the Ethanol case (source NNFCC and industry): Ethanol global production 2008: 61 million tonnes (> 90% bio-based) Most applications in fuels and food & beverages Ca. 6 million tonnes for the industry Part of ethanol is used directly as a solvent, part blended with other solvents (e.g. ETOH/ETAC blend for inks), part used for downstream products (solvents like ETAC or non-solvents like ethylene, acetic acid…) Applications may switch back and forward considering market conditions The solvents application of ETOH, being bio-based or not, is very low compared with biofuel but as well industrial applications considering for example the chain ethanol  ethylene  polyethylene Bio-ethanol from biomass is a mature market being highly impacted by policies and incentives.

32 Biobased Solvents Prediction (what can we reasonably say today) Main solvents application are ethanol and downstream products or blends Development of ethanol will remain highly affected by regional and local policies Other bio-based solvents (alcohols, acetates) are mainly oxygenated solvents and have very low volumes representing no more than 1% of the market Their development will depend on competitive production conditions Today, it is not possible for the solvents industry to give serious fact based prediction of bio-based solvents market.

33 Biobased Solvents Some additional considerations in the bio-based solvents context Feedstock availability at competitive conditions Competitive production process Pull from downstream users Long term predictability of legal and incentives conditions Standardization will give the frame for companies and downstream users to develop their own bio-based strategies