Joint Planning & Development Office Evaluations & Analysis Preliminary Scenario Analyses Strategy Assessment to Provide a Basis for Prioritizing Investments in a National Plan Dr. Sherry Borener - Director - Evaluations and Analysis Office

EAO Strategy Evaluation Method Strategy Impact Characterization Direct NAS Effects (ACES, LMInet, MLM) Multi-year Consumer, Carrier Ramifications (NAS Strategy Simulator, DoC) Strategy Impact (Metrics) Safety, Environmental (NIRS, INM) Security, Economic Impacts (GRA AMMS & NACBA, Volpe) Strategy Development Decisions Strategy Evaluation Existing Data (e.g. ETMS Schedules) Define Future Schedule and Conditions (AvDemand) Validation

Overview of LMINET Fast-time NAS-wide queuing model Uses a flight schedule covering 600+ commercial airports (derived from OAG), GA airports (derived from NPIAS), plus international airports (derived from OAG) Calculates delays at 102 airports and en route capacity constraints at 995 sectors; determined by the flight schedule, flight trajectories, airport runway configuration, and airport weather conditions

ACES Agents and Messages ACES Agents interact like real-world people and systems Regional Control Regional TFM National Flow Management Terminal TFM Airport TFM Airport Control Regional TFM Regional TFM Airport TFM Airport Control Terminal TFM Created 5 min before Gate Departure Ends at Arrival Gate AllUpdated Time CCMessages to all agents except Flight and AOC Mod Actual Takeoff Time AOC Mod Landing Time Request Mod Gate Departure Time, New Flight Plan, Cancel Flight Any flight modifications sent to National Flow Management and AOC Mod Gate Departure Time or Takeoff time Terminal Control Intra-TFM Restriction Mod Maneuver AC State (1min), Center Boundary Crossing Inter-TFM Restriction Mod Departure Fix Crossing Time Terminal Control Boundary Crossing Landing Sequence Takeoff Sequence Airport Acceptance Rate Arrival and Departure Queuing Data Inter-TFM Restriction Receive all: - Inter-TFM Restrictions - Intra-TFM Restrictions - Mod Gate or Takeoff time - Mod Cancel Flight - Congestion Alerts - All Flight Mods AC State (1min), Terminal boundary Crossing Intra-TFM Restriction Mod Maneuver AC State (1min) Initiate 4DOF flight at Meter Fix End 4DOF Flight at Meter Fix Regional Control Regional Control Projected RW Times Arrival and Departure Queuing Data Airport Acceptance Rate Congestion Alert ACES Build 2

Futures Scenarios Evaluation Process 1.Assumptions of inputs 2.Develop Scenario modeling assumptions 3.Generate output performance metrics 4.Review results and assess any adjustments that need to be made to ensure modeled scenario is 1.realistic and 2.reflects futures working group’s intentions. 5.Iterate through steps 1-4 until step 4 is satisfied

Assumptions for Futures Scenario Set of futures. For each case –Model the implications to show what it means for the NAS Develop model assumptions and parameters to reflect characteristics of the scenario –Passenger and cargo demand scenario –Fleet mix and aircraft types –Business models Level of international flights Size of aircraft Growth Travel time Scheduling impacts –Workload levels within the NAS –Environment and weather

Futures Scenario Asia’s Century U.S. has won the war on terror –but lost its economic and technological leadership Slow economic growth Declining industrial and transportation infrastructure Domestic vacation travel and leisure is greatly reduced

Flights 1.4-3X Passengers X Future Environment and Demand Baseline Values 2004 Baseline Current Flight Schedule Current Capacities 1X ~3X Shift in passengers per flight (e.g., A380, reverse RJ trend, higher load factor) 20?? ~2X Biz shift Smaller aircraft, more airports Note: Not to scale Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Growth Projection 2014 and later Baseline analysis will use OEP & FACT Capacities TAF Growth Ratios, Higher Rate TAF Growth Ratios, Lower Rate 2014 Biz shift 2% shift to micro jets Increase of over 10 passengers per flight

CAPACITY: Future Airspace Overload ENVIRONMENT: Increased Noise Impact Unconstrained Capacity Constrained COST: Lost Airline Profit Major capacity increases using existing paradigm lead to significant environmental and safety issues Shortfalls in capacity lead to significant economic consequences. SAFETY: Fatal Accident Rate Must Decrease to Maintain Current Safety Record X Example Performance Analyses

ACES 2x simulation ACES Video of a day in the NAS

Airspace Loading: Mid-Day EST Demand for Airspace Sector Color Loading index: Yellow: 80 – 125% of sector capacity Red: % of sector capacity Black: > 200% of sector capacity Snapshot at ~1pm EDT VAMS ACES Simulation B Unconstrained Airports & Airspace 250 Airports, 24 hour simulation Future growth based on Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) 2002: ~27K flights total Future 2X: ~54K flights total AvAnalyst ™ Seagull Technology Baseline Demand (2002) Future 2X Demand

Airspace Loading: Subdivide Sectors / More Controllers Sector Color Loading index: Yellow: 80 – 125% of sector capacity Red: % of sector capacity Black: > 200% of sector capacity Baseline Demand (2002) Current Sector Capacities 2X Future Demand Current Sector Capacities 3X the number of Sectors and Controllers AvAnalyst ™ Seagull Technology 2X the number of Sectors and Controllers Snapshot at ~1pm EDT 2X Future Demand

NAS Transformation in Environment FEEDBACK TO THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS Simulate NAS Using ACES Noise Exposure Map Emissions Inventory Grid IMPACTS ON SAFETY CAPACITY ENVIRONMENT ECONOMICS

EAD Metrics Efficiency Safety Environment Accidents # of Operations Emissions Metrics capture the potential benefits of future strategies for key ATS attributes such as Efficiency, Safety, Environment, Security, etc. The common denominator for all EAD metrics is the forecast total number of aircraft operations. The use of a common metric allows evaluation of the benefit tradeoffs across multiple ATS attributes. Delays Current System Future Concept ATS AttributesMetrics

Surface taxi Controller gate Dispatch taxi gate Controller Dispatch Terminal takeoff Controller Today’s ATS Operational Concept Baseline En route climb descent voice Controller landing Controller

En route Surface Terminal taxi landing climb descent taxi takeoff Controller gate Controller A Possible Future Operational Concept Dispatch voice Controller Digital