Concluding Regional Workshop on Methodologies to Assess Socio-Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters, October, 2005 Assessment of Drought Impact in Balochistan, Pakistan: Case Study Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources Engr. Muhammad Azam Director

Part-I: Drought in Balochistan Part-II: Main Result of the Case Study

Geographical Area:796,044 km 2 Desert Area: 110,000 km 2 ProvinceArid (km 2 ) Semi Arid (km 2 ) Sub Humid (km 2 ) Humid (km 2 ) Total Area (km 2 ) Punjab119,31059,678170,1410,197206,199 Sindh134,8966, ,914 Balochistan149,467197, ,190 NWFP6,19416,49115,16036,67674,521 FATA-13,58011,2392,40127,220 Total:409,867293,49043,41349,274796,044 % of Total Province-Wise Aridity in Pakistan

Present Land-Use Statistics 1. Area not available for cultivation (58.6%) 2. Forest (5%) 3. Culturable waste (21.1%) 4. Fallow (6.5%) 5. Net sown Total Geographical Area Source: Agriculture Statistics of Balochistan ( ) S.No. Description Area (MHA) Total No. of Districts= 26 ZHOB Q I L L A S A I F U L L A H L O R A L A I K A L A T SIBI KHUZDAR CHAGAI KHARAN PANJGUR TURBAT ARABIAN SEA LASBELA Z I A R A T M A S T U N G Q U E T T A AWARAN Jiwani KOHLU P I S H I N K. A B D U L L A H Ormara Pasni N A S I R A B A D GAWADAR K AC H H I DERA BUGTI

Livestock Population in Balochistan (million Heads) ProvinceSheepGoatCamelCattlePunjab Sindh Balochistan NWFP Total: % of Total in Balochistan

Major Fruit Production in Balochistan (000, tonnes) ProvinceAppleApricotGrapePomegranateAlmondPunjab Sindh Balochistan NWFP Total: % of Total in Balochistan

Water Resources of Balochistan Water Source Quantity (Bm3) Surface Water Canals (Indus River System) Flood Runoff (Rainfall) Groundwater1.07 Total:27.20

Major Water Issues in Balochistan  Water Scarcity  High Evaporation Losses (3000 mm)  Low water use efficiencies  Depleting groundwater aquifers

 Total Cultivated Area: 1.99 Mha  Irrigated Farming: 58% –Canal Irrigation –Karez/Spring Irrigation –Tubewell/Lift Irrigation  Dry Farming: 42% –Sailaba (Floodwater) Irrigation –Khushkaba (Rainfall/Localized Runoff) Irrigation Crop Production Systems in Balochistan

Karez Irrigation Tap and convey groundwater by gravity in open channels or underground tunnels to command areas.

Sailaba Irrigation Diversion and Spreading of Intermittent Flow of Hill Torrents

Khushkaba Irrigation Crops at the mercy of rain and sheet flow from mountain during rainstorms by constructing low dykes across flow paths in piedmont plains.

Drought Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather which persists long enough to produce a serious hydrologic imbalance

Types of Drought Slight:When the rains are 50% below normal during a particular crop season Mild:When the rains continue to be 50% below normal for the two crop seasons Moderate:When the rains are 50% below normal and continue for the three consecutive crop seasons Severe:When the below normal rain persists, continues and prolongs up to four crop seasons

Average Annual Rainfall

Barkhan, Khuzdar, Kohlu, Moderate Effected Districts: Severe Effected Districts: Awaran, Bolan, Chagai, Dera Bugti, Gwadar, Jhal Magsi, Loralai Musa Khail, Sibi, Kalat, Kharan, Kila Saifullah, Kila Abdullah, Lasbela, Khuzdar Mastung, Panjgoor, Pishin, Quetta, Turbat Zhob, Ziarat

Part - II

 To assess socio-economic impacts of drought based on improved methodology  To identify key parameters and possible indicators for measuring impact of drought disaster Objectives of the Case Study

1) Reviewed preliminary drought reports 2) Selected study area 3) Identified key parameters and indicators according to the objectives 4) Collected damaged data from the relevant Govt. departments, NGOs, individuals, etc. 5) Conducted interviews of all stake holders 6) Analyzed the collected data/information 7) Drafted drought impact assessment report Adopted Approachfor Drought Impact Assessment Adopted Approach for Drought Impact Assessment

 Accessibility of the study area  Socio economic importance of the area  Visible drought effect due to recorded reduced rainfall  Continuous drop in water tables, river flows and surface reservoirs  Reasonable data/information available for analysis (pre and post drought period) Selected Study Area: Pishin Lora Basin AdoptedCriteria for Selection of Study Area Adopted Criteria for Selection of Study Area

S.# River Basin Groundwater Resources (Million cubic meter) AvailableUsedBalance 1Human-e-Lora Kachi Nari Pishin Lora Porali Hub Winder Nai Zhob Dasht Rakshan Hamun-e-Musakhel Hingol Gaj Mula Source: Balochistan Conservation Strategy, 2000 Annual Groundwater Potential in River Basins

 Northern highland region of Balochistan  Climate: cold winters and mild summer  Annual precipitation: 150 to 200 mm  Landscape characterized by hill torrents, mountain ranges, piedmont plains and alluvial fans  Soils: calcareous, derived from limestone, sandstones and sedimentary rocks, low in organic matter  Main economy: livestock and agriculture Pishin Lora Basin

S.# Sub basin Area (km 2 ) Main Cities/Towns 1Pishin6,818Quetta*Pishin* Killa Abdullah* MastungKuchlaghKalatKolpur 2Mangochar664 3Quetta1,780 4Mastung785 5Kalat2,220 6Kapoto167 7 Sardar Khel 491 8Kolpur111 9Kuchlagh1,734 10Shirinab1, Patki Shahnawaz 988 Total17,070 Quetta, Killa Abdullah and Pishin Sub-basins of Pishin-Lora

Selected Districts DistrictQuettaPishin K- Abdullah Total Geographical Area (Mha) Population (million) Households (000, No.)

Priority Order ParameterIndicator 1LivestockSheep/goat 2OrchardsApple 3CropsWheat 4 Groundwater dependable sources  Tubewell  Kareze  Spring 5Households  Diet  Health Identified Key Parameters and Indicators

 Meteorology Office, Quetta  Provincial Agriculture Department  Provincial Irrigation and Power department  Arid Zone Research Centre  Water Resources Development and Planning Centre Identified Relevant Agencies

 Participatory appraisal survey (RPA)  Questionnaire development and testing  Questionnaire parameters include land holding, crops/orchards, livestock, living habits, diet, irrigation sources, market prices of items (pre & post drought)  Sample size in each district: 150 Interviews of Stakeholders

ParameterQuettaPishinKila Abdullah Total Sheep/goat before drought (No.) 106,942440,637285,519833,098 Perished during drought period (No.) 96,248370,135254,112720,495 Perished (%) Total Losses* (Rs. in million) Present average market price per head: Rs. 2100/- Direct Losses to Sheet/Goat

ParameterQuettaPishinKila Abdullah Total Sheep/goat before drought (No.) 106,942440,637285,519833,098 Sale during drought period (No.) 96,248370,135254,112720,495 Total Losses* (Rs. in million) Average sale loss: Rs. 1500/- Indirect Losses to Sheet/Goat

Loss of two completely lost breeding seasons (2001 & 2002) because of reduced conception due to poor feed and health Abortion in pregnant animals due to poor feed and health Kid mortality occurred due to shortage of milk with mothers Drastic reduction in wool and hair Non-Quantified Indirect Losses

Reduction in stock buildup capacity Depletion of flock owners’ ready cash to meet household needs Affected cottage industries due to reduction in wool and hair Reduction in meat, milk and milk products Drastic Increase of mutton prices in Quetta by almost 60% Secondary Effects

Impact of Drought on Orchards

ParameterQuettaPishin Killa Abdullah Total Orchards before drought- Nos. 8411,5215,1857,547 Dried trees during drought-Nos. 425,900885, , ,500 Dried trees per orchard-Nos ,349 Annual fruit production/tree-kg Market price per kg – Rs Annual fruit value per tree – Rs Annual loss per orchard – Rs. 303,600349, , ,400 Total annual damage (million Rs) ,598 Direct Losses of Apple Orchards

Indirect Losses of Apple Orchards ParameterQuettaPishin Killa Abdullah Yield before drought (kg/ha) 15,14915,27915,279 Yield during drought period (kg/ha) 1,6915,9715,204 Yield reduction (kg/ha) 13,4589,30812,775 Loss per hectare (Rs)* 269,160186,160255,500 Orchard area before drought (ha) 3,0254,2984,299 Total Loss (million Rs) ,098 * Market price per kg=Rs20 Indirect Losses of Apple Orchards

 Loss of farm labor  Unemployment in the market  Increase in prices  Effect on factory labor  …….. Secondary Effects

ParameterQuettaPishinKilla Abdulla h Total Wheat area before drought (ha) 3,50022,2007,86833,568 Wheat area during drought (ha) 2,5107,5672,45512,532 Reduction in area (ha)99014,6335,41321,036 Wheat yield before drought (kg/ha) *Total Direct Loss (million Rs) * Market price per 40 kg is Rs. 300/- Direct Losses of Wheat Crop

ParameterQuettaPishinKilla Abdullah Total Wheat Production before drought (tons) 7,66046,83018,56473,054 Wheat Production during drought (tons) 4,99815,8854,36925,252 Production reduction (tons) 2,66230,94514,19547,802 *Total Indirect Loss (million Rs) * Market price per 40 kg is Rs. 300/- Indirect Losses of Wheat Crop

 Loss of farm labor  Loss of straw/fodder  Unemployment in the market  Price increase of cereal products  Effect on factory labor  …….. Secondary Effects

Huna Lake,Quetta

ParameterQuettaPishinKila Abdullah Total Working tubewells prior to drought (No.) 8202,2104, Tubewells dried during drought period (No.) 4991,3012, Tubewells dried (%) Average groundwater level declined (m) *Additional drilling cost with 10% increase in electric charges (Rs. in million) Cumulative capital loss (Rs. In Million) Indirect Capital Loss of Dried Tubewells * Drilling cost with pipe assembling = Rs. 1640/m 10% increase in electric motor and electrification = Rs: 40,000/-

ParameterQuettaPishinKila Abdullah Total *Alive Karezes before drought (No.) Karezes vanished during drought period (No.) Dried Karezes (%) **Sale price of irrigation water per annum (Rs. in million) 2.6 Capital loss per annum (Rs. in million) Capital loss during drought (Rs. in million) Indirect Capital Loss of Dried Karezes * Karez discharge = 1 cusec ** Sale price = Rs. 300/hr

ParameterQuettaPishinKila Abdullah Total *Alive spring before drought (No.) , Springs vanished during drought period (No.) , Dried springs (%) **Sale price per annum (Rs. in million) 1.31 Capital loss per annum to farmers (Rs. in million) ,5652,27 3 Capital loss during drought to farmers (Rs. in million) Indirect Capital Loss of Dried Springs * Spring discharge = 1/2 cusec ** Sale price = Rs. 300/hr

BeforeDuring Wheat bread, meat, tea, milk, yogurt, vegetables and fruits Limited to wheat flour and tea only Health Common health complaints: diarrhea, vomiting and fever Widespread malnutrition among women and children Life of infants at risk due to shortage of breast milk More vulnerability in patients of tuberculosis and hepatitis Diet Impact of Drought on Diet/Health

Indicator Financial Loss (million Rs) Total Direct LossIndirect Loss QuettaPishinKilla Abdullah QuettaPishinKilla Abdullah Sheep/Goat Apple Orchard Wheat Tubewell Karez Spring Total (million Rs) Cumulative Financial Losses during Drought

Districts (No.) Population (million) Impact (Rs. billion) Macro-Economic Impact

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