Northwest Power Planning Council Fish and Energy Impacts Resulting from Reductions in Summer Bypass Spill July 16, 2003

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide Bypass Spill ( NOAA Fisheries)

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 3 Wholesale Electricity Prices (Mid-Columbia, Average Hydro, )* *In , west coast demand and resources are more in balance.

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 4 Cost as a Function of Runoff

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 5 Observations In dry years, flow costs exceed spill costs In dry years, flow costs exceed spill costs In wet years, spill costs exceed flow costs In wet years, spill costs exceed flow costs Flow costs decrease linearly as a function of runoff Flow costs decrease linearly as a function of runoff In drier years, spill costs increase with runoff until spill limits are reached In drier years, spill costs increase with runoff until spill limits are reached Bypass spill costs then decline in wet years as forced spill increases Bypass spill costs then decline in wet years as forced spill increases

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 6 50-Year Average Annual Cost (millions) Current bypass spill program$142 Current bypass spill program$142 –Spring only $74 –Summer only $68 »July only $30 »August only $38 Gas limit at 115% $97 Gas limit at 115% $97 –Savings$45 »Spring savings$36 »Summer savings $9 July savings$5 July savings$5 August savings$4 August savings$4

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Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 9 Juvenile Fall Chinook Outmigration: 10-Year Average Percent of run completed Dam July 1 July 31 August 31 Lower Granite 26.1%75.5%94.7% McNary45.8%91.2%99.5% John Day 42.6%83.1%98.9% Bonneville59.4%93.1%99.3%

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 10 Alternatives Under average, high and low flow conditions, compare fall chinook survival using 2000 Biological Opinion spill levels to: No bypass spill in July and August No bypass spill in July and August No bypass spill in August No bypass spill in August

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 11 Starting with 1000 fish, population change with no spill in July or August Population Average Flow High Flow Low Flow Snake River Fall Chinook Upper Columbia Fall Chinook Lower Columbia Chinook

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 12 Starting with 1000 fish, population change with no spill in July or August (CRiSP) Population Average Flow High Flow Low Flow Snake River Fall Chinook Upper Columbia Fall Chinook

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 13 Starting with 1000 fish, population change with no spill in August Population Average Flow High Flow Low Flow Snake River Fall Chinook Upper Columbia Fall Chinook Lower Columbia Chinook

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 14 Starting with 1000 fish, population change with no spill in August (CRiSP) Population Average Flow High Flow Low Flow Snake River Fall Chinook Upper Columbia Fall Chinook

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 15 Assumptions Population Estimated 2003 Juvenile Outmigration Smolt to Adult Survival Snake River Fall Chinook 2.1 million 1% Upper Columbia Fall Chinook 22.2 million 1%

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 16 Number of Juveniles Lost Under Average Flow Conditions Population No Summer Spill No August Spill Snake River Fall Chinook -1, Upper Columbia Fall Chinook -680, ,000

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 17 Number of Adults Lost Under Average Flow Conditions Population No Summer Spill No August Spill Snake River Fall Chinook Upper Columbia Fall Chinook -6,800-2,400

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 18 Decrease in Harvest and Escapement Upper Columbia Fall Chinook Adult Return No Summer Spill No August Spill Harvest-3,000-1,000 Escapement-3,800-1,400

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 19 Fall Chinook Escapement at McNary Dam Year Adult Passage Escapement Goal ,00045, year average 81,000 40,000 to 45,000

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 20 Fall Chinook Escapement at Lower Granite Dam Year Adult Passage Wild Fish Escapement Goal ,3002, year average 3,6002,500

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 21 Uncertainties Mixed populations Mixed populations Variable yearly outmigration Variable yearly outmigration May increase adult turbine mortality May increase adult turbine mortality

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 22 Positive Aspects Affect on listed stocks very low Affect on listed stocks very low Stocks affected generally healthy Stocks affected generally healthy May help adult migration May help adult migration May use saved revenues more cost- effectively for fish May use saved revenues more cost- effectively for fish

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 23 Alternatives to Current Summer Spill Levels More flexible summer spill program More flexible summer spill program Reduce predation Reduce predation Increase hatchery production Increase hatchery production Less costly passage improvements at dams Less costly passage improvements at dams Reduce harvest with compensation Reduce harvest with compensation Protect more habitat Protect more habitat Combination of above Combination of above