The Path To Higher Interest Rates July 2014 For Institutional Use Only.

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Presentation transcript:

The Path To Higher Interest Rates July 2014 For Institutional Use Only

2 1.Assessing Risk: Current Market Conditions 2.Post QE/Higher Interest Rates 3.Money Market Regulatory Reform 4.Cash & Term Portfolio Overview 5.Question & Answers Agenda For Institutional Use Only

Assessing Risk: Current Market Conditions For Institutional Use Only

Coordinated Global Monetary Policy 4 Source: Bloomberg as of 6/30/14 For Institutional Use Only

Central Banks Resort to Non-Traditional Policy Source: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, European Central Bank, Eurostat, Bank of England, UK Office for National Statistics, Bank of Japan, Economic and Social Research Institute Japan, and Bloomberg. For Institutional Use Only 5 QE1 QE2 QE3

Global Debt to GDP Trends For Institutional Use Only 6 Source:

Global Business Cycle in a Trend of Modest Improvement 7 *For developed economies, we use the classic definition of recession, involving an outright contraction in economic activity. For developing economies, such as China, we have adopted a “growth cycle” definition because they tend to exhibit strong trend performance driven by rapid factor accumulation and increases in productivity, and deviation from trend tends to matter most for asset returns. Source: Fidelity Investments (AART), as of 6/30/14. For Institutional Use Only

Liquidity From QE Flows into Global Markets Source: Strategic Insight Simfund as of 5/31/14 Note: Flows include both mutual funds and ETFs 8 For Institutional Use Only

QE Has Driven Bond Yields and Valuations Source: Bloomberg as of 6/30/14 9 For Institutional Use Only

Quest For Yield Has Driven Corporate Spreads Lower 10 Source: Barclays as of 6/30/14 For Institutional Use Only

QE Has Led To Higher Equity Valuation Source: Bloomberg as of 6/30/14 The performance data featured represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. You can not invest in an index. 11 For Institutional Use Only

QE Taper Creates Emerging Market Volatility 12 Source: Barclays and Bloomberg as of 6/30/14 The performance data featured represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. You can not invest in an index. For Institutional Use Only

Demographics are an Important Driver of Interest Rates 13 Source: Bloomberg and Haver as of 6/30/14 For Institutional Use Only

Roadmap To Higher U.S. Interest Rates For Institutional Use Only

A Path to Higher Interest Rates Quantitative Easing  Taper QE  Assessment of QE  Cease Reinvestment Of Proceeds from SOMA Holdings  Normalize the Size of Balance Sheet Over Time Traditional Monetary Policy  Modify Forward Guidance on the Federal Fund’s Rate  Drain Excess Reserves  Raise the Federal Fund’s Target Rate, IOER, RRP 15 For Institutional Use Only

Federal Reserve’s Economic Projections Source: Bloomberg and Federal Reserve FOMC Forecast as of 06/18/2014 Actual Inflation Inflation Forecast Unemployment Rate Forecast Actual Unemployment Rate Actual GDP GDP Forecast Inflation Threshold 16 For Institutional Use Only

U.S. Inflation Risks Remain Subdued 17 CPI = Consumer Price Index. LEFT: Money velocity = GDP/M2. GDP = Gross domestic product. M2 = money supply measure including currency, demand deposits, checking deposits, savings accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit. Monetary base = currency plus reserves in the banking sources. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments (AART) through 2/28/14. RIGHT: Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments (AART) as of 12/31/13. U.S. Monetary Base and VelocityKey Drivers of Inflation $ TrillionsMoney Velocity For Institutional Use Only

Jobless Claims Heading to Pre-Recession Levels Source: Department of Labor, Bloomberg as of 6/27/14 18 For Institutional Use Only

U.S. Labor Participation Rates Continues Downward Trend Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg as of 6/30/14 19 For Institutional Use Only

Employment Creation Positive, But Not Impressive Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg as of 6/30/14 20 For Institutional Use Only

Post Recession U.S. Employment Recovery’s 21 Employment: Pre and Post Recession Source: NBER, BLS/Haver as of 4/30/14. Data represents Civilian Employment (SA, Thous). Most Recent Recession Employment Level Indexed to 100 at Start of Recession For Institutional Use Only

Lackluster GDP Growth Despite Historic Fed Policy Contributions to Real GDP (% change annualized) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis as of 6/25/14 22 For Institutional Use Only

Potential Headwinds for GDP Source: Left Chart - Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bloomberg as of 5/31/14; Right Chart – U. of Michigan Survey Research Center, Bloomberg as of 6/30/14. Note: Data represents % change year to year, SAAR, Bil.$ 23 For Institutional Use Only

Higher Mortgage Rates Could Dampen Recovery Source: Bankrate.com, Mortgage Bankers Association, Bloomberg as of 6/27/14 Note: 30-year mortgage rate represents the overnight national average. 24 For Institutional Use Only

Timeline To Higher U.S. Interest Rates For Institutional Use Only

Consensus Builds for a 2015 Rate Hike 26 Source: Federal Reserve as of 06/18/2014 Federal Reserve Board Rate Expectations Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming (June 2014) Fed Meeting Date Longer Run Jun Mar Median Target Fed Funds Rate at Year End For Institutional Use Only

Market Expectations for First Rate Hike 27 Source: Bloomberg as of 6/30/14 Sep-13 May-13 For Institutional Use Only Jun-14

Regulatory Reform Update For Institutional Use Only

29 For Institutional Use Only Rule Proposal Expected Q3/Q Proposed Effective Date for Alternative 2 Q3/Q Proposed Effective Date for Alternative Q3/Q4 Jan 2013 Obama names Mary Jo White as SEC Chairman Feb 2013 FSOC proposal comment deadline (extended from Jan 18) Feb/Mar 2013 Mary Jo White confirmed as SEC Chairman Aug 2013 Stein and Piwowar replace Walters and Paredes at SEC Sept 2013 SEC comment deadline Apr 2013 SEC rule proposal issued 2013 Key Events Future Timeline Money Market Fund Reform Timeline Source: iMoneyNet and Fidelity as of 9/30/13

Cash & Term Portfolio Overview For Institutional Use Only

Portfolio diversification is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that each fund has bought and may not be representative of a fund’s current or future investments. Each fund’s investments may change at any time. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Source: Fidelity Investments as of 6/30/ NCCMT Cash Portfolio June 30, 2014June 30, 2013 Focus on High Quality Issuers For Institutional Use Only

32 Foreign Bank Exposure Geographically Diversified Source: Fidelity Investments as of 6/30/2014 FOREIGN BANK HOLDINGS: NCCMT CASH PORTFOLIO For Institutional Use Only

33 Fund Holdings Primarily Short-Term Source: Fidelity Investments as of 6/30/2014 NCCMT CASH PORTFOLIO MATURITY SCHEDULE For Institutional Use Only

Portfolio diversification is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that each fund has bought and may not be representative of a fund’s current or future investments. Each fund’s investments may change at any time. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Source: Fidelity Investments as of 6/30/ NCCMT Term Portfolio June 30, 2014 June 30, 2013 Focus on High Quality Issuers For Institutional Use Only

Third Quarter Investment Strategy and Outlook Investment Strategy Seeking to preserve principal, maintaining liquidity and achieving superior risk-adjusted performance –Emphasize fundamental and macro research in formulating portfolio structures –Meet fund liquidity targets through repurchase agreements, Treasuries, agencies and short-dated credits –Manage weighted average maturities (WAM) and weighted average life (WAL) constraints to enhance NAV stability and performance –Position portfolios based on our assessment of relative value across the money market yield curve within the context of our approved credits Outlook Central Banks to maintain accommodative monetary policy to encourage economic growth –The FOMC enhances forward guidance to a more qualitative assessment that includes a wide assortment of inflation, labor and financial-market indicators as criteria for changing monetary policy – US continues tapering QE that establishes a glide path to end the program in 2014 – Global growth will be led by U.S. and Germany Supply dynamics may keep short-term rates low in the year ahead –Money market supply is expected to contract by about $250 billion in 2014 led by reduction in repo and agencies –The Treasury’s Floating Rate Note (FRN) program is expected to issue $150 billion in 2014 with a reduction in bill issuance of a similar magnitude –The Federal Reserve’s Fixed Rate Reverse Repo should provide a leaky floor on overnight rates as the testing period continues to experiment with program rates and participation limits Market volatility may present investment opportunities as we enter Fed’s tightening window Final rules on additional money market regulatory reform expected in For Institutional Use Only

36 Important Information Not FDIC insured. May lose value. No bank guarantee. Not NCUA or NCUSIF insured. May lose value. No credit union guarantee. Lipper Analytical Services, Inc., is a nationally recognized organization that ranks the performance of mutual funds. The views expressed in this statement reflect those of the portfolio manager only through the end of the period of the report as stated on the cover and do not necessarily represent the views of Fidelity or any other person in the Fidelity organization. Any such views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and Fidelity disclaims any responsibility to update such views. These views may not be relied on as investment advice and, because investment decisions for a Fidelity fund are based on numerous factors, may not be relied on as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any Fidelity fund. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investment return will fluctuate, therefore you may have a gain or loss when you sell shares. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against a loss. Before investing, have your client consider the funds’ investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Have your client read it carefully. For Institutional Investor Use only. Fidelity Investments & Pyramid Design is a registered service mark of FMR LLC. Fidelity Investments Institutional Services Company, Inc., 500 Salem Street, Smithfield, RI For Institutional Use Only