The Demographic Transition — A Contemporary Look at a Classic Model A lesson plan from “Making Population Real” by the Population Reference Bureau Supported by the World Population Fund of the Minneapolis Foundation

Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2: The Demographic Transition Issues Population growth Development Population Concepts Classic model of demographic transition Patterns of changing birth and death rates Tools Line graphs Research and analysis

Objectives To understand the classic demographic transition (DT) model To explain assumptions and limitations of the classic DT model To construct graphs of contemporary demographic change To explain contemporary demographic patterns in the context of the classic DT model

What is the Demographic Transition? high The shift from high to low mortality and fertility Based on the experience of Western Europe Began by Warren Thompson in 1929 Further developed in 1945 by Frank Notestein A sign of socio-economic progress?

The Classic Demographic Transition Stage 1Stage 2Stage 3Stage 4 Time Natural increase Birth rate Death rate Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

Examine the Model A Model is …  a representation of some phenomenon of the real world made in order to facilitate an understanding of its workings  a simplified and generalized version of real events, from which the incidental detail has been removed

Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2: The Demographic Transition What population patterns are revealed in the traditional Demographic Transition model? Assignment: Construct a graph of birth and death rates in England from

Demographic Transition in Sweden and Mexico Sources: B.R. Mitchell, European Historical Statistics (1976): table B6; Council of Europe, Recent Demographic Developments in Europe 2001 (2001): tables T3.1 and T4.1; CELADE, Boletin demografico 69 (2002): tables 4 and 7; Francisco Alba-Hernandez, La poblacion de Mexico (1976): 14; and UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (2003): 326. Births/Deaths per 1,

Is the Demographic Transition Model Still Useful? How well does the classic model work? Is it a useful framework for developing countries? Do developing countries need to share the experiences of Europe and the United States? Is the socioeconomic change experienced by industrialized countries a prerequisite or a consequence of demographic transition?

Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2: The Demographic Transition Activities: 1. Explaining Population Change:  Graph changing birth & death rates in classic model (England)  Graph & compare rates for Sweden & Mexico 2. Global Population Patterns and Demographic Transitions:  Calculate natural increase by continent & country  Compare demographic with economic indicators 3. Can an Old Model Explain New Trends?  Compare national population patterns to model

About Making Population Real Free, on-line curricula utilize up-to-date real- world data and articles from a variety of web- based resources: United Nations (UNICEF, UNHCR, WHO, etc.) U.S. Census Bureau National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration PRB research and publications Lead author Martha B. Sharma, a teacher Recipient of the 2006 Geographic Excellence in Media Award from National Council for Geographic Education

Population Reference Bureau Informs people around the world about population, health, and the environment, and empowers them to use that information to advance the well-being of current and future generations. Analyzes demographic data and research to provide objective, accurate, and up-to-date population information in a format that is easily understood by educators, journalists, and decision makers alike.