Incremental Measures Available to Downwind States to Reduce VOC and NOx May 7, 2015 Gregory Stella Alpine Geophysics, LLC 1

Objective EPA has provided “known” controls beyond attainment of the 75 ppb NAAQS for areas to implement in order to achieve proposed alternate NAAQS levels Files for 70, 65, and 60 ppb located in docket – For this analysis, we reviewed the 60 ppb packets EPA-HQ-OAR (NOx) EPA-HQ-OAR (VOC) This presentation is not a proposed control strategy for attainment at northeastern receptors and is simply an accounting of what has EPA has documented as available beyond attainment of the 75 ppb baseline 2

Presentation Focus EPA applied controls regionally with intention of impacting regional air quality Our focus on EPA “nonattainment” receptors identified in Steve Page memorandum 3

Our Review Compared recent OSAT results of residual relative contribute and determined local incremental control would best be applied Extract control programs from EPA proposed ozone NAAQS files to document incremental emission reduction opportunities in northeast – Limits control to where EPA indicates it is needed and therefore not exhaustive list of available controls EPA proposed ozone NAAQS list of controls does not contain on-road mobile source strategies beyond Tier 3 – However, demonstrated, incremental reductions are known to be available 4

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EPA Designated Control Regions 8

EPA “Known” NOx Reductions Known Annual NOx Emission Reductions (60 ppb) 2025 Baseline NOx Emissions (tpy) RegionSub-RegionSourceTPY% Red NortheastInside NE BufferArea240,91068,03628% Inside NE BufferEGU88,0235,6856% Inside NE BufferNon-road166,5251,8401% Inside NE BufferOn-road159,24900% Inside NE BufferPoint140,29547,15734% SubtotalAll Sources795,002122,71715% Outside NE BufferArea98,26324,43125% Outside NE BufferEGU11, % Outside NE BufferNon-road72, % Outside NE BufferOn-road72,50400% Outside NE BufferPoint69,67422,36932% SubtotalAll Sources324,44548,43415% 9

EPA “Known” NOx Reductions Known Annual NOx Emission Reductions (60 ppb) 2025 Baseline NOx Emissions (tpy) StateTPY% Red Connecticut40,7843,5209% Delaware15,3931,1878% District of Columbia4, % Maryland80,13817,60522% Massachusetts75,9779,93413% New Jersey86,75811,27013% New York231,96834,17915% Pennsylvania351,11159,03817% Rhode Island13,134761% Maine39,5232,7467% New Hampshire16,5991,1927% Vermont9, % Virginia153,84728,51519% Northeast Buffer Total1,119,447170,45815% 10

2025 NOx Annual Emissions/Reductions (60 ppb) Source GroupBaselineReduction% Red Agriculture8, % By-Product Coke Mfg; Oven Underfiring2,5711,54360% Cement Kilns1, % Cement Manufacturing - Dry8,8487,89489% Cement Manufacturing - Wet4,6274,10389% Coal Cleaning-Thrml Dryer; Fluidized Bed % Comm./Inst. Incinerators2,8301,10839% Commercial5, % Commercial/Institutional - NG34,80218,89954% Construction35,0251,5424% EGU9,0406,57773% External Combustion Boilers, Elec Gen, Nat Gas (1) % Fluid Cat Cracking Units; Cracking Unit1,6911,51990% Gas Turbines - Natural Gas4,8943,53172% Glass Manufacturing - Container2,7002,26484% Glass Manufacturing - Flat8,5657,28085% Glass Manufacturing - General % Glass Manufacturing - Pressed % IC Engines - Gas/ Diesel/ LPG1, % ICI Boilers - Coal/Cyclone3,0212,41780% ICI Boilers - Coal/Stoker2,8942,29279% ICI Boilers - Coal/Wall6,7496,06090% ICI Boilers - Natural Gas5,1164,20282% ICI Boilers - Process Gas1,9141,67087% ICI Boilers - Residual Oil4,4762,38053% 11 List of EPA “Known” Controls – NOx Within Northeastern Buffers

2025 NOx Annual Emissions/Reductions (60 ppb) Source GroupBaselineReduction% Red In-Proc;Process Gas;Coke Oven/Blast Furn % In-Process; Bituminous Coal; Cement Kiln % Indust. Incinerators % Industrial1,794422% Industrial Coal Combustion4, % Industrial NG Combustion9955% Industrial NG ICE, 4cycle (rich)36,07332,46690% Industrial Oil Combustion910425% Internal Combustion Engines - Gas3,9141,14729% Internal Combustion Engines - Oil1,5861,26980% Iron & Steel - In-Process Combustion - Bituminous % Iron & Steel Mills - Annealing818099% Iron & Steel Mills - Reheating % Lean Burn IC Engine - Gas11,4149,93087% Lime Kilns4,1721,25230% Mining674244% Municipal Waste Combustors1, % Open Burning2,2681,81480% Petroleum Refinery Gas-Fired Process Heaters % Residential Heating31,9363,19410% Residential NG61,61529,69648% Solid Waste Disp;Gov;Other Incin;Sludge9,5798,46288% Space Heaters - Natural Gas373080% Utility Boiler - Coal/Wall1,2471,03883% Utility Boiler - Oil-Gas/Wall % 12 List of EPA “Known” Controls – NOx Within Northeastern Buffers

EPA “Known” VOC Reductions Known Annual VOC Emission Reductions (60 ppb) 2025 Baseline VOC Emissions (tpy) RegionSub-RegionSourceTPY% Red NortheastInside NE BufferArea 578,80535,6416% Inside NE BufferEGU 3,20200% Inside NE BufferNon-road 170,70000% Inside NE BufferOn-road 123,19900% Inside NE BufferPoint 45, % SubtotalAll Sources 921,20535,9384% Outside NE BufferArea 260,28500% Outside NE BufferEGU 1,41800% Outside NE BufferNon-road 84,49700% Outside NE BufferOn-road 49,29900% Outside NE BufferPoint 27,87500% SubtotalAll Sources 423,37400% 13

EPA “Known” VOC Reductions Known Annual VOC Emission Reductions (60 ppb) 2025 Baseline VOC Emissions (tpy) StateTPY% Red Connecticut61,8935,5379% Delaware16,68200% District of Col6,36300% Maryland87,48400% Massachusetts112,01800% New Jersey140,61516,50212% New York308,78413,8995% Pennsylvania291,72000% Rhode Island16,30400% Maine43,98300% New Hampshire34,55800% Vermont21,62400% Virginia202,55100% Northeast Buffer Total1,344,57935,9383% 14

List of EPA “Known” Controls – VOC Within Northeastern Buffers 2025 VOC Annual Emissions/Reductions (60 ppb) Source GroupBaselineReduction% Red Adhesives - Industrial2,3261,69873% Aircraft Surface Coating % Architectural Coatings24,11113,26155% Architectural, Industrial Maintenance, and Traffic Coatings4,1471,94947% Automobile Refinishing2,4342,16689% Bakery Products % Coating; Arts % Coating; Arts; Miscellaneous2,1621,94590% Cutback Asphalt60 100% Electrical/Electronic Coating % Flexible Package Printing % Graphic Arts4,5882,98265% Industrial Cleaning Solvents11 94% Lithographic Printing & Letterpress Printing10875% Machn, Electric, Railroad Ctng % Marine Surface Coating % Metal Can Coating2,2912,06290% Metal Can Surface Coating % Metal Coil Coating % Metal Furn, Appliances, Parts5,2762,90255% Motor Vehicle Coating % Municipal Solid Waste Landfill % Paper and Other Web Coating232295% Petroleum Flare131298% Printing/Publishing201890% Stage II Service Stations - Underground Tanks3,6062,63273% Wood Furniture Surface Coating2, % Wood Product Surface Coating % 15

Noted Emission Reductions from OTC Measures Not Currently Modeled by EPA in Baseline 16 Just in the OTC states Reductions developed as part of OTC Committee work These emission reduction estimates are being updated Result in about 150 tpd total NOx and 150 tpd total VOC emission reduction in the 13 OTR states Not included in EPA OTB/OTW modeling Source: “What Does the Modeling Tell Us About Good Neighbor SIPs and the New EPA Transport Guidance?”, Tad Aburn, April 8, 2014

“Inside MD” Reductions Not Currently Modeled BY EPA New EGU regulation for NOx – Required for RACT and Attainment Maryland efforts on mobile sources – Electric vehicle initiatives – ZEV efforts – “Beyond Conformity” partnerships 17 Source: “What Does the Modeling Tell Us About Good Neighbor SIPs and the New EPA Transport Guidance?”, Tad Aburn, April 8, 2014

Observations There appear to be ample measures available locally to impact ozone concentrations in the northeastern domain Additional, incremental mobile source reductions exist in northeastern states although not documented by EPA in proposed ozone NAAQS 18

Gregory Stella Managing Partner Alpine Geophysics, LLC