Spatial and Vertical Price Transmission and Asymmetric Adjustment: The Case of Local and Imported Rice in Togo Tomgouani LANIE PhD Candidate in Applied Economics Interuniversity Graduate Program (PTCI) SD Conference-UNU-Merit & CRES

Price transmission  theoretical and practical usefullness (Amikuzuno & Ogundari, 2012) Theoretically  Drives resources allocation (Meyer & von Cramon-Taubadel, 2004) & Internation specialization (Fackler & Goodwin, 2001). Practically  unknown pass-through  great source of food insecurity (Barrett & Maxwell, 2005). Economic theory vs Empirical evidence (Pemtzman, 2000). Outline

Outline (2) Issues with asymmetric price transmission (Meyer & von Cramon-Taubadel, 2004).  Widely analyzed  The recent global food crisis  Increased concern Context of liberalization policies  world market prices shocks are transmitted to domestic markets  major part of households are vulnerable to the prices shocks (Belke & Dreger, 2013; FAO, 2011). Empirical studies (Baltzer, 2013)  country specific analysis (Diao et al, 2012).

Objective  This study aims at investigating the extent and the short-run speed of adjustment of six domestic markets of imported rice and the local market of husked rice to world rice market prices shocks and between the local markets of paddy and husked rice and to test for asymmetries in the adjustment process in Togo.

Context of Togo o Consumption ( WFP, 2011). o Dependency (52%)  Imports: 4 billion FCA (SDR, 2010) o Food crisis  30% (2007) and 56% (2009). o The country is extremely vulnerable to food prices shocks (Kamgnia, 2011). o Popular manifestations o Government intervention o Rice marketing characteristics (Hodjo & Acharya (2015); Glé (2006); Koffi-Tessio et al (2008); Adjognon (2012)).

Methodology & Data Statistical properties of series (ADF, PP & KPSS) Engle & Granger (1987) and Johansen (1988) Granger causality test Threshold cointegration Symmetric (Granger, 1983) and Asymmetric error correction models (Sun, 2011) FAO/GIEWS (Imported rice) & DSID (Local rice).

Results Unit root tests Engle & Granger cointegration test Johansen cointegration test Long-run relationship Prices pairs Paddy-husked Rice Husked- Inter Cinkassé-Inter Korbongou-Inter Kara-Inter Anié-Inter Lomé-Inter Amégnran-Inter Extent0,980,340,620,610,540,510,930,65

Results Threshold cointegration (T-max and Fisher Statistics) Prices pairs Paddy-husked Husked- Inter Cinkassé-Inter Korbongou-Inter Kara-Inter Anié-Inter Lomé-Inter Amégnran-Inter Threshold cointegration tests YesNoYesNo Yes No Asymmetric adjustment tests Yes (76%) vs (39%) -Yes --No Yes (40%) vs (4.8%) -

Results Results of the estimations of standard error correction model Prices Pairs Husked – International Korbongou - International Kara – International Amégnran – International Speed of adjustment25,2%17,5%18,5% Not Significant

Results Results of the estimation of asymmetric error correction models Prices Pairs Hhusked rice - Paddy Cinkassé – International Anié – International Lomé – International Asymmetric adjustment (Own Prices) No Yes Asymmetric adjustment (short-run) No Yes Asymmetric adjustment (Speed of adjustment) NoYesNoYes

Conclusion Baltzer (2013) Adjognon (2012) Koffi-Tessio et al (2008) Badolo (2011); Brunelin (2013) Policy implications

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