CA Brush Analysis How well did the CDS Wildfire Model identify hazardous areas? Produced by CDS Business Mapping, LLC. ©Copyright 2003, CDS Business Mapping, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Introduction CDS Business Mapping has been using GIS to help identify potential brush fire hazards for approximately 5 years CDS Business Mapping has been using GIS to help identify potential brush fire hazards for approximately 5 years The previous methods used have been expensive and/or inaccurate The previous methods used have been expensive and/or inaccurate The CDS Wildfire Model was developed to address the issue of brush fire hazard prediction and prevention The CDS Wildfire Model was developed to address the issue of brush fire hazard prediction and prevention

About CDS Wildfire Model Model was developed using the most current data and methods available Model was developed using the most current data and methods available Model is updated on a 5 year rolling schedule (1/5 of the state is mapped each year) Model is updated on a 5 year rolling schedule (1/5 of the state is mapped each year) The recent fire outbreak has given us a opportunity to evaluate the performance of our model The recent fire outbreak has given us a opportunity to evaluate the performance of our model

The Big Question: How did we do? Everyone has asked how well the CDS Wildfire Hazard Model predicted the areas that would burn Everyone has asked how well the CDS Wildfire Hazard Model predicted the areas that would burn Can mapping technology and CDS’s Wildfire Model accurately identify potential brush hazards? Can mapping technology and CDS’s Wildfire Model accurately identify potential brush hazards?

The Answer: Yes! CDS did an excellent job of identifying areas that were at risk of wildfires CDS did an excellent job of identifying areas that were at risk of wildfires The following pages explain our analysis and the results of the analysis The following pages explain our analysis and the results of the analysis

Analysis CDS looked at fire extents dated Oct 27 through Nov 4 (busiest fire period during the outbreak) CDS looked at fire extents dated Oct 27 through Nov 4 (busiest fire period during the outbreak) We looked at 5 counties in Southern CA (Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego and Ventura) We looked at 5 counties in Southern CA (Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego and Ventura) We compared the Renie Admap books to the CDS Wildfire Model to the areas that actually burned to see how well we predicted the fires We compared the Renie Admap books to the CDS Wildfire Model to the areas that actually burned to see how well we predicted the fires

We overlaid the fire extents on the Renie & CDS Wildfire Models. This shows what the entire Southern California area looked like on a macro scale.

Statistics Fire Extent Coverage in % as of Nov 4 th, 2003* CountyRenie CDS Wildfire Model San Bernardino80 91San Bernardino80 91 Ventura9 73Ventura9 73 Los Angeles6 87Los Angeles6 87 Riverside1 81Riverside1 81 San Diego0 85San Diego0 85 * This is the percent of area that burned which Renie books flagged as in brush, and the percent of area which CDS rated as medium or high risk

Conclusions The CDS Wildfire Model did an excellent job of predicting areas that would burn The CDS Wildfire Model did an excellent job of predicting areas that would burn Renie AdMap was not a very successful method of prediction Renie AdMap was not a very successful method of prediction By using the CDS Wildfire Model, you can identify potential brush fire hazards By using the CDS Wildfire Model, you can identify potential brush fire hazards When you consider that most companies will not write near brush, our % of coverage would be even higher When you consider that most companies will not write near brush, our % of coverage would be even higher

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