The Skagit Alternative Futures Project How might the Skagit Valley develop over 50 years - through 2060? Given population growth, climate change, changing agricultural markets… Project will model several different potential futures Appointed Stakeholder committee will combine best elements to develop a preferred future And specific recommendations for implementation

Alternative Futures Project Background Skagit County received EPA grant in 2008 Skagit County is the project coordinator Departments include Planning, Public Works, GIS, Natural Resources Policy Coordinator Outside partners include UW, WSU, Skagit River Systems Coop, and others Participants include cities, tribes, conservation, agricultural, and forestry organizations, state agencies, and others

Project Timeline: 2009 Steering Committee and Technical Committees are meeting Task is to develop, model and evaluate four “Alternative Futures” - Plan Trend, Agriculture, Conservation, Development Accounting for population growth, climate change, and other factors For modeling purposes only

Project Timeline: 2010 Stakeholder Committee meets to develop and recommend a “Preferred Future” Draws on results of modeling, and consensus decision process Preferred future is a hybrid that seeks to maintain: - a commercially viable and sustainable agricultural industry - a healthy, resilient ecosystem - highly livable, economically viable urban and rural communities And implementation strategy for how to get there

Project Timeline: Skagit County and other jurisdictions: Implementation through Countywide Planning Policies, Comprehensive Plans, development regulations, new economic incentives, etc.

Opportunities Promoting important cross-jurisdictional and inter- disciplinary discussions Allowing us to think longer-term and get out of “narrow” GMA box Securing resources for important County needs

Challenges Requires large amounts of County staff time Moving forward into uncharted territory Will address some deep-seated conflicts What can/will be different about this process?

Steering Committee Members Rone Brewer, Washington Waterfowl Association Jan Ellingson, Crown Real Estate LLC Margaret Fleek, City of Burlington Jana Hanson, City of Mount Vernon Carolyn Kelly, Skagit Conservation District Paul Kriegel, Forestry Representative Margaret Studer, Futurewise

Steering Committee Members Patsy Martin, Port of Skagit County Kevin Morse, The Nature Conservancy Rebecca Ponzio, Puget Sound Partnership Allen Rozema, Skagitonians to Preserve Farmland Mike Shelby, Western Washington Agriculture Association Shirley Solomon, Skagit Watershed Council Dr. Gary Tollefson, Skagit Valley College Larry Wasserman, Swinomish Indian Tribal Community

SKAGIT COUNTY & SKAGIT WATERSHED County = 1.1 Million acres Watershed = 2.0 Million acres

County Specific – Planned Trend Examples Growth Management limitations Available residential lots Build out County options for growth Bayview Ridge Working with other jurisdictions City plans for growth