Qualitative Forecasting Fire duration/size/impacts? -multiple fire starts close together* –acres burned per day above some threshold* -valley topography with inversion potential -type I team mobilization*: fire fighters that deal with more complex fires –proximity to population centers *available from National Interagency Fire Center

Quanitative Forecasting Near-term forecasts (several hour): e.g. will currently measured smoke at high elevation drain into lower areas? Longer term forecasts (days to weeks): e.g. extending prescribed burning models to wildfires

Monitoring -PM2.5 is the target parameter -Continuous Monitors -TEOMS: not easily moved; pricey; measures mass conc.; issues associated with heated -Nephelometers: portable, inexpensive, simple to operatre, measures light scattering; issues with RH; needs site-specific calibration

Monitoring Monitoring Plans –State and Local Air Agency Responsibility with support from others –Recommend using as a template: “Wildfire Emergency Action Plan Guidance Document” (prepared for WESTAR, available on our web site)

Monitoring Data Interpretation for Health Advisories –State/Local AQ agencies; County/State Health Departments, Federal EPA will interpret data for public