Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic using a High- Resolution Regional Arctic Climate System Model Iowa State University Role

Initial Goal Evaluation of - atmospheric model behavior - then coupled model behavior - with an eye toward links between atmosphere & surface that influence circulation and error propagation

Two New Graduate Students Justin Glisan (Ph.D.) Analyzing: RMS Differences: Pan-arctic MM5 vs. ERA-40 Propose: Evaluation of model by analyzing persistent extremes in model (atmosphere alone and/or coupled model) and observations Brandon Fisel (M.S.) Analyzing: SHEBA static stability vs. convergence/divergence of sea ice. Propose: Evaluation of model by focusing on episodes of strong air-sea interaction when gaps in ice appear

Work done Fall 07 with Ben Schwedler (hourly undergraduate) No data assimilation on interior

Work done Fall 07 with Ben Schwedler (hourly undergraduate) With data assimilation on interior

Work done Fall 07 with Ben Schwedler (hourly undergraduate) * Seem to be centered on model domain, not on the pole. Implies a geometric factor? But why high bias to sides and low toward center? * Appears that model's lows are deeper and (maybe) propagate more readily to the east. Perhaps highs are higher, too. * Storms seem to get much deeper and times and propagate more readily into the Arctic. Storm tracks shifted poleward? Is there a difference in sea ice or SST vs. reanalysis?

Recent Work done by Justin

Sea Ice Divergence near SHEBA Tower

Lapse Rate during Div/Conv Transition

Other items Effect of Permafrost Changes: Model of annual soil moisture fraction (b) Fixed annual precip. ET varies with b

Other items Chen, T.-C., J.-D. Tsay and W. J. Gutowski, 2008: A comparison study for three polar grids. J. Appl. Meteor. Clim. (accepted). “Wiring Diagram”