O.Rudnytskyi, O.Gladun Demographic losses of Ukraine and other republics of the former Soviet Union in the Second World War Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

The reasons for the large variations in estimates Data quality: the data are often used without caution towards data quality and without necessary adjustments. Data completeness: a considerable part of the archived sources has not been used until now. Net migration: lack of data on uniform estimates on net migration for the Soviet republics in 1927 to Differences in hypothetical non-crisis births and deaths trends in 1930 to Methodology issues: need for better methodologies.

Aim The aim of this study is to estimate demographic losses during WWII in Ukraine and other republics of the Soviet Union, based on reconstructions of their population dynamics and our own methodological approaches. Direct losses (excess deaths) in WWII are estimated as the difference between the reconstructed (actual) numbers of deaths and its hypothetical numbers assuming there was no war.

Data Estimates are based on data collected from different archive sources and published statistics for the 1920– 1960 period. These include: -census data (1926, 1937, 1939, 1959), - vital statistics and migration data for the intercensal period 1926–1959, -official statistics on military casualties from the Ministry of Defense of the USSR, -the Memory Books.

The main stages of work 1. Reconstruction of the demographic time series for the USSR and each Union republic for the Estimation of the hypothetical number of deaths assuming that there had been no WWII. 3. Estimation of direct losses during WWII.

Population reconstruction 1. Correction of 1926, 1937, 1939 and 1959 census data. 2. Correction of vital statistics and migration data for the period. 3. Restoration of the age distribution of deaths and migrants. 4. Construction of special demographic tables of the population’s life expectancy. 5. Construction of the population balances of the Soviet republics for the period. All figures of the demographic dynamics of the USSR and the Soviet republics were brought into line with the modern national borders.

Population on 1 January 1939 and direct losses by the republics of the USSR Population on 1 January 1939 Direct losses* ( ) Ratio of losses to population Thousand% % = 4 / 2 USSR 190, , Armenia 1, Azerbaijan 3, Belarus 8, , Estonia 1, Georgia 3, Kazakhstan 5, Kyrgyzstan 1, Latvia 1, Lithuania 3, Moldova 2, Russia 107, , Tajikistan 1, Turkmenistan 1, Ukraine 40, , Uzbekistan 6, * results may be adjusted

Direct losses (annualized per 1000 population)

Military and civilian casualties by the republics of the USSR ( ) Military casualties*Civilian casualties thousand% % USSR 14, , Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus , Estonia Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lithuania Moldova Russia 9, , Tajikistan Turkmenistan Ukraine 2, , Uzbekistan * excluding militias, guerrillas and supporting military units

Military and civilian casualties for (annualized per 1000 population)

Proportion of Ukraine in the World War II casualties of the USSR, by years (%) DirectMilitaryCivilian

Direct demographic losses of Ukraine and the USSR in World War II, by years (per 1,000 population)

Military losses of Ukraine and the USSR in World War II, by years (per 1,000 population)

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