The Course of Action Challenge Problem (COA CP)

Basic Stuff COA CP replaces the BS CP SME’s author COA’s and the knowledge used to critique them SHAKEN must acquire this knowledge from SME’s and automatically generate critiques of COA’s

What’s a COA? A COA describes a mission: –An objective –Units and equipment to be used –Actions to perform –Time constraints –Terrain characteristics

The Author of a COA is Given a Problem Description Sketched terrain map, indicating: roadways, rivers, lakes, hills, forests placements of blue units (good guys) and red units (bad guys) Scenario narrative, including non-graphical information, such as recent history, current dynamics, status of military units Mission specification, including objectives and constraints (e.g. Capture the hill by sunset, using at most 10% of resources)

From this Problem Description, the SME authors one or more COA’s Estimate of the situation, following METT-T/OCOKA, e.g. terrain analysis, such as lines of communication and avenues of approach COA sketch – an overlay on the problem statement’s terrain sketch Commander’s intent – a high level description of the goal and rationale. Description of Main Attack, Supporting Attack, Fire Support, and Reserve: for each, a description of units, actions, and purpose COA (initial) critique, along these dimensions: mission accomplishment, speed, simplicity, use of terrain, fire support, risk, and readiness for follow-up operations

OCAKA OCAKA: Principles for analyzing the terrain for Observation and fields of fire, Cover and concealment, Obstacles, Key terrain, and Avenues of approach. For example: “Obstacles are any obstructions that stop, delay, or divert movement. Obstacles can be natural (rivers, swamps, cliffs, or mountains) or they may be artificial (barbed wire entanglements, pits, concrete or metal anti-mechanized traps). They can be ready-made or constructed in the field. Always consider any possible obstacles along your movement route and, if possible, try to keep obstacles between the enemy and yourself.”

METT-T Other dimensions for analysis, such as: Troops. “The size and type of the unit to be moved and its capabilities, physical condition, status of training, and types of equipment assigned all affect the selection of routes, positions, fire plans, and the various decisions to be made during movement. On ideal terrain such as relatively level ground with little or no woods, a platoon can defend a front of up to 400 meters. … Heavily wooded areas or very hilly areas may reduce the front a platoon can defend. The size of the unit must also be taken into consideration when planning a movement to contact. During movement, the unit must retain its ability to maneuver. A small draw or stream may reduce the unit's maneuverability but provide excellent concealment. All of these factors must be considered.”

COA CP Process Overview 1.SME i authors COA in Shaken. 2.Shaken produces critique C i. 3.SME j criticizes C i and specifies knowledge K i necessary to improve critique C i. 4.SME j enters knowledge K i into Shaken. 5.Go to Step 2. Notes: - SME i produces a COA; SME j critiques that COA. SMEs do not critique their own COAs. - The critique C i is produced by Shaken. - This process is repeated for several iterations and we score the rate of acquisition of knowledge K i. It should decrease indicating that the critiquing knowledge is approaching a complete set. - Halfway through the summer evaluation, we should get new SMEs to guard against overfitting of KR to COAs. We could also pursue cross validating results and randomizing.

Notes: SME i authors COA C i SME j adds/refines critiquing knowledge, K i SME j does not refine the COA, C i ; that’s considered fixed SME i might author a set of COA, and part of critique C i is to compare, contrast, and score them

Schedule

An Example COA, from General Otstott

A Preliminary Storyboard from Jihie