Transport Trends in the UK: revised scenarios Elena Rivilla Lutterkort February 2005

The Environment and Transport. Life inextricably linked with transport Need for sustainability Health and pollution issues What is going to happen?

The areas where the highest increase occur are road and air travel

Road Transport Is the most polemic sector :personal choice, politics, society... Policy based on misleading trends. Shows signs of increasing demand in energy, vehicles and distance travelled.

So what does transport look like? Historically consumption has been growing through time

So what does transport look like? But vehicle ownership has also increased ( prices more accessible, more cars per household...)

So what does transport look like? Real scenario Improvements in efficiency

Efficiency isn’t only due to having a new car. New cars have been improving their efficiency steadily through time.

What will transport look like? For predictions I assume a 1.5% increase in ownership (less than GDP) Curved line what would be optimistally expected

What will consumption be? It’s easy to see that changes in efficiency are the easiest solution to reducing consumption

What to do? It’s obvious that focus should be on private ownership

Air transport: also on the up! Aircraft emit GHG gasses, with Kyoto starting up, what will it mean for cheap companies?

What do the trends look like for air travel? Whichever scenario turns out to be true, they are all increasing. Assuming no changes in efficiency, consumption will also increase. Source:DTI

Further study Data for freight overlaps with other modes of transport, need to separate effects Necessary for a comprehensive view, not only focus on road and air, (slight increase water: tourist cruise to Antartica!!) Disentangle variables. Better definitions for vehicles (overlap).

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