REMEMBERING NINE OF THE WORST NATURAL DISASTERS. Part 2. (in terms of casualties) Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

DECEMBER 1920 HAIYUAN, CHINA EARTHQUAKE DEATH TOLL ESTIMATED AT 273,400.

SEPTEMBER 1923 GREAT KANTO EARTHQUAKE: JAPAN DEATH TOLL ESTIMATED AT 142,000.

JULY 1976 TANGSHAN, CHINA EARTHQUAKE DEATH TOLL ESTIMATED AT 242,000 TO 655,000.

DECEMBER 2004 EARTH- QUAKE/TSUNAMI: INDONESIA DEATH TOLL ESTIMATED AT 280,000.

JANUARY 2012 HAITI EARTHQUAKE DEATH TOLL ESTIMATED AT 220,000.

Fast Forward to 2015 GLOBAL GOAL: Implementing the Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction From WCDRR

LEARNING FROM GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORIES PART 2: EARTHQUAKES

WE CONTINUE TO OPERATE WITH A FLAWED PREMISE: KNOWLEDGE FROM EARTHQUAKE DISASTERS, WHICH OCCUR ANNUALLY ON A GLOBAL SCALE, IS ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY NATION SUSCEPTIBLE TO EARTHQUAKES ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES THAT WILL FACILITATE ITS OWN DISASTER RESILIENCE

FACT: IT USUALLY TAKES MULTIPLE EARTHQUAKE DISASTERS BEFORE AN EARTHQUAKE-PRONE NATION WILL ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES THAT MOVE IT TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

FACT: UNTIL STRICKEN, MOST EARTHQUAKE-PRONE NATIONS DON’T EVEN TRY TO LEARN ANYTHING NEW FROM ANOTHER NATION’S EARTHQUAKE DISASTERS AND CERTAINLY DON’T CONSIDER CHANGING EXISTING POLICIES

EXAMPLES OF PAST EARTHQUAKE DISASTER LABORATORIES

PACIFIC RING OF FIRE CIRCUM- PACIFIC NATIONS ARE PRONE TO EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMIS

OTHER EARTHQUAKE- PRONE LOCATIONS

TECTONIC DEFORMATION EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI GROUND SHAKING FAULT RUPTURE FOUNDATION FAILURE SITE AMPLIFICATION LIQUEFACTION LANDSLIDESAFTERSHOCKSSEICHE DAMAGE/LOSS DAMAGE/ LOSS DAMAGE/LOSS

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING EARTHQUAKES SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NON- STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF DAMAGE GLOBAL “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

EXAMPLE: 240,000 DEAD AFTER “BULLS-EYE” EARTHQUAKE TANGSHAN, CHINA (1976) EARTHQUAKE: The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property.

EXAMPLE: 230,000 DEAD AFTER EARTHQUAKE/TSUNAMI INDONESIA (2004): The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property.

EXAMPLE: 88,000 DEAD AS RESULT OF NON-ENGINEERED BUILDINGS CHINA (MAY 2008): The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property. CHINA (MAY 2008): The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property.

EXAMPLE: 220,000 DEAD AS RESULT OF NON-ENGINEERED BUILDINGS HAITI (2010): The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property. HAITI (2010): The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property.

EXAMPLE: 30,000 DEAD AFTER EARTHQUAKE/TSUNAMI JAPAN (2011): The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property. JAPAN (2011): The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property.

EXAMPLE: SEARCH AND RESCUE OF SURVIVORS IN COLLAPSED BLDGS. TURKEY (1999) KOCALEI EARTH- QUAKE): Timely responses during a forty-eight hour “race against time” to save lives and protect property TURKEY (1999) KOCALEI EARTH- QUAKE): Timely responses during a forty-eight hour “race against time” to save lives and protect property

BOUMERDES, ALGERIA; 2,226 DEAD (MAY 21, 2003)

EXAMPLE: GUJARAT, INDIA 20,800 DEAD (JAN 26, 2001)

EL ASNAM, ALGERIA; 3,500 DEAD (OCT. 10, 1980)

EXAMPLE: DAMAGE TO ESSENTIAL INFRASTRUCTURE– A SCHOOL ALASKA (1964): Timely search and rescue during a forty-eight hour “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: DAMAGE FROM EARTHQUAKE/TSUNAMI ALASKA (1964): Timely responses during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property ALASKA (1964): Timely responses during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: LIQUEFACTION DESTROYED OVER 1,000 BUILDINGS NIIGATA, JAPAN (1964): Timely responses during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property NIIGATA, JAPAN (1964): Timely responses during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: COLLAPSE OF HIGH-RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS MEXICO CITY AFTER 1985 EARTHQUAKE: Timely responses during a forty-eight hour and thirty day “race against time” save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: LOSS OF FUNCTION OF ELEVATED HIGHWAY; DEATHS LOMA PRIETO, CA (1989): Timely responses during a forty-eight hour and thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property LOMA PRIETO, CA (1989): Timely responses during a forty-eight hour and thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: LOSS OF FUNCTION LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE (1989): Timely responses during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE (1989): Timely responses during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: LOSS OF FUNCTION OF ELEVATED EXPRESSWAY NORTHRIDGE, CA (1994): Timely responses during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property NORTHRIDGE, CA (1994): Timely responses during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: LOSS OF FUNCTION OF ELEVATED EXPRESSWAY (NO DEATHS) KOBE, JAPAN (1995): “The forty- eight hour and thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property.

EXAMPLE: LOSS OF FUNCTION FROM 600 FIRES KOBE, JAPAN (1995): “The race against time” to save lives and protect property.

EXAMPLE: HAZ-MAT RELEASE AND FIRE AFTER EARTHQUAKE/TSUNAMI ALASKA (1964): Timely responses during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: RADIATION RELEASE FROM NUCLEAR POWER PLANT JAPAN (2011): Timely responses during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: SEARCH AND RESCUE TO SAVE TRAPPED SURVIVORS CHINA (2013): Timely responses during a forty-eight hour “race against time” to save lives and protect property CHINA (2013): Timely responses during a forty-eight hour “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICES AFTER EARTHQUAKE CHINA (2008): Timely responses during a forty-eight hour “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: EMERGENCY MEDICAL CHINA (2008): Timely responses during a forty-eight hour “race against time” to save lives and protect property CHINA (2008): Timely responses during a forty-eight hour “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE PAKISTAN (2005): Timely responses during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: MASS CARE OF SUR- VIVORS AFTER QUAKE AND TSUNAMI CHILE EARTHQUAKE: “The race against time” to save lives and protect property starts immediately.

EXAMPLE: A TENT CITY FOR SURVIVORS AFTER AN EARTHQUAKE HAITI (2010): Timely temporary housing during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: SURPRISE! DEBRIS FROM JAPAN’S TSUNAMI NOW IN USA SENDAI, JAPAN AFTER THE MARCH 2011 EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI: What will happen to the radioactive debris?

EXAMPLE: TAKING CARE OF THE DEAD KILLED IN NON-ENGINEERED BLDGS. IRPINIA, ITALY EARTHQUAKE (1980): Timely responses during a forty-eight hour “race against time” to save lives and protect property IRPINIA, ITALY EARTHQUAKE (1980): Timely responses during a forty-eight hour “race against time” to save lives and protect property

LESSON: THE KNOWLEDGE AND TIMING OF ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS IS VITAL The people who know: 1) what to expect (e.g., strong ground motion, soil effects, tsunami wave run up, ground failure), 2) where and when they will happen, and 3) what they should (and should not) do to prepare for them will survive.

LESSON: TIMELY, REALISTIC DISASTER SCENARIOS SAVE LIVES The people who have timely, realistic, advance information that facilitates reduction of vulnerabilities, and hence the risks associated with strong ground shaking, tsunami wave run up, and ground failure will survive.

LESSON: EMERGENCY RESPONSE SAVES LIVES The “Uncontrollable and Unthinkable” events will always hinder the timing of emergency response operations, especially the search and rescue operations that are limited to “the golden 48 hours.”

LESSON: EMERGENCY MEDICAL PREPAREDNESS SAVES LIVES The local community’s capacity for emergency health care (i,e., coping with damaged hospitals and medical facilities, lack of clean drinking water, food, and medicine, and high levels of morbidity and mortality) is vital for survival.

LESSON: EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERED BUILDINGS SAVE LIVES Buildings engineered to withstand the risks from an earthquake’s strong ground shaking and ground failure that cause damage, collapse, and loss of function, is vital for protecting occupants and users from death and injury.

LESSON: THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ALWAYS PROVIDES AID The International Community provides millions to billions of dollars in relief to help “pick up the pieces, ” but this strategy is not enough by itself to ensure earthquake disaster resilience.

FACT MOST OF THE NATIONS NEED EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICIES THAT ARE BASED ON LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST EARTHQUAKE DISASTER LABORATORIES

YOURCOMMUNITYYOURCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS MONITORING HAZARD MAPS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EM RESPONSE RECOSTRUCTION AND RECOVERY EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

PILLARS OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE Preparedness Protection: Adoption and Implementation of a Modern Earthquake Engineering Building Code and Lifeline Standards Prevention: Land Use Planning and Base Isolation

PILLARS OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE (continued) Monitoring Realistic Earthquake Disaster Scenarios Timely Emergency Response (including search and Rescue and Emergency Medical Services) Cost-Effective Recovery and Reconstruction

THE CHALLENGE: CHANGING EXISTING POLICIES: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE KINDS OF TURNING POINTS NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

AN UNDER-UTILIZED GLOBAL STRATEGY To Create Turning Points for Earthquake Disaster Resilience  USING EDUCATIONAL SURGES CONTAINING THE PAST AND PRESENT LESSONS TO FOSTER AND ACCELERATE POLICY CHANGES

MOVING TOWARDS THE MUST- HAPPEN GLOBAL STRATEGY To Achieve Earthquake Disaster Resilience  INTEGRATION OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS WITH POLITICAL SOLUTIONS IN EVERY NATION FOR REALISTIC POLICIES ON PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, DISASTER SCENARIOS, EMERGENCY RESPONSE, RECONSTRUCTION, AND RECOVERY