3.2 - Spatial Scenarios

Integrated Scenarios

Demography - Baseline median age

Demography - Baseline life expectancy – median age

Demography – Questions for the workshop What are the main consequences for territorial development of population ageing ? Is there any chance of changes in the natural population evolution ? If yes, which policies would be the most efficient ? For immediate effects, migration seems the only demographic “tool” for policy makers: –How can policy influence the destination of migration ? –How to make sure that migration “needs” are not defined only by the pentagon ?

Economy – Baseline 2015 Types of long-range trajectories - Pentagon: sustained growth (with some exceptions) - Eastern periphery: sustained growth (catching up) - Western regions of central and eastern Europe: weak growth outside metropolitan areas (very selective catching up) - Southern and western peripheries of EU-15: strong contrasts

Economy – Prospective 2015 COHESIONCOMPETITIVENESS

Economy – Questions for the workshop Which are the most likely regional impacts in Europe of: –Accelerating globalisation? –The catching up process in central and eastern Europe? –Technological development (ICT, biotechnologies, energy and transport systems etc.)? Which are the development perspectives of the European peripheries? Is the implementation of the Lisbon Strategy compatible with increased territorial cohesion? If yes, at which scale? Which type of regional policy would be best suited to face successfully the development and cohesion challenges of the coming decades?

Environment

Environment - Baseline

Environment - Prospective COHESION COMPETITIVENESS

Environment – Questions for the workshop Which are the most serious threats to the environment to be expected in the coming decades and which territorial/regional impacts are likely to occur? Which are the most probable environmental impacts at regional level of accelerating climate change? Which are the most probable environmental impacts at regional scale of the changing energy paradigm? Which should be the priorities of a long-term environmental policy with regard to future challenges?

Transport

Road Flows – Baseline 2030

Transport – Prospective 2030 CohesionCompetitiveness Road flows compared to baseline

Transport – Baseline 2030

Freight Transport – Prospective 2030 CohesionCompetitiveness Freight traffic density compared to baseline

Transport – Questions for the workshop Will transport policies in the coming decades favour more the road and motorway sector than the railway/waterway/maritime sector? Which types of impacts are the increasing energy price and the changing energy paradigm likely to have on the transport sector and, indirectly, on cohesion and settlement systems? Are discrepancies in accessibility likely to increase or to decrease? At which scale? Are significant changes in the EU transport policy likely to occur? Which type of EU transport policy would be best suited to overcome the territorial and accessibility challenges of the coming decades in a changing context?

Enjoy the workshops !