CSG/ERC 44 th Annual Meeting Springfield, MA Douglas MacIntyre, Senior Oil Market Analyst Petroleum Division U.S. Energy Information Administration August.

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Presentation transcript:

CSG/ERC 44 th Annual Meeting Springfield, MA Douglas MacIntyre, Senior Oil Market Analyst Petroleum Division U.S. Energy Information Administration August 10, 2004 Northeast Energy Outlook Panel

WTI Crude Oil Price: Potential for Volatility Around Base Case Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

Crude Oil Price, OECD Days Supply, and World Excess Production Capacity

OECD Commercial Oil Inventories Source: History: Oil Market Report, IEA, July 2004

Will OPEC Keep Markets Adequately Supplied? History Projections Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

Annual World Oil Demand Growth Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

Annual World Oil Demand Growth by Region, * Other includes Australia, New Zealand, the Middle East, and Africa. Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

U.S. Crude Inventories Projected to Remain in Normal Range Sources: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004 History Million Barrels

U.S. Net Crude Oil Imports Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

U.S. Crude Oil Refinery Inputs Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

Distillate Prices Generally Follow Crude Oil Spot West Texas Intermediate East Coast Retail On-Highway Diesel Fuel East Coast Residential Heating Oil

East Coast Distillate Stocks Source: Energy Information Administration

Distillate Winter Demand Expected to Continue to Grow Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

Last Winter’s Weather Was Close to Average Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

Distillate Production Higher Leading Up to Peak Demand Season Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

Distillate Imports Expected to be Key Component In Winter Supply Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

Distillate Stocks Expected to be in Normal Range Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July Actual Forecast

Northeast Heating Oil Inventories Monthly Source: Energy Information Administration. Weekly

Consumer Prices and Expenditures – Heating Oil (Northeast) Actual Forecast (est.) Consumption (gals.) Average Price$1.10$1.34$1.36$1.56 Expenditures$635$993$991$1,080 Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

Propane Prices Follow Crude Oil and Natural Gas

U.S. Propane Stocks Average Range Lower Operational Inventory = 18.5 Million Barrels Actual Forecast Source: Energy Information Administration

Consumer Prices and Expenditures – Propane (Midwest) Actual Forecast (est.) Consumption (gals.) Average Price$1.11$1.20$1.30$1.41 Expenditures$888$1,125$1,156$1,298 Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

U.S. Natural Gas Spot Prices (Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval*) Sources: History: Natural Gas Week; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July *The confidence intervals show +/- 2 standard errors based on the properties of the model. The ranges do not include the effects of major supply disruptions.

U.S. Working Gas in Storage (Difference from Previous 5-Year Average) EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004

Consumer Prices and Expenditures – Natural Gas (Midwest) Actual Forecast (est.) Consumption (mcf) Average Price$7.41$8.40$9.69$10.56 Expenditures$602$800$871$983 Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

Crude Oil and Gasoline Price Outlook Regular Gasoline Wholesale Gasoline Crude Oil (WTI) Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

U.S. Average Retail Regular Gasoline Prices Source: EIA Weekly Retail Gasoline Price Survey.

PADD 1 Sources of Supply 877 MB/D (2003) Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly About 25% of PADD 1’s supply comes from imports. Canada, Virgin Islands, Venezuela, Western Europe are important sources of import volumes. Gasoline Imports Mainly Serve PADD 1