The Development of Crash Modification Factors: CMF Needs Assessment Kim Eccles (VHB) based on work with Frank Gross (VHB), Daniel Carter (HSRC), and Raghavan Srinivasan for Roya Amjadi, FHWA

Objective Conduct a CMF gap analysis study: Inventory existing CMFs; Identify CMF research needs; and Prioritize future CMF research needs and development efforts. Conduct a meeting for communicating to/with CMF stakeholders.

Practitioner Need Knowledge of strategy Confidence that strategy or technology will provide results Approval Funds Expertise to implement A highly rated CMF in the CMF clearinghouse New Strategy Acceptance

Lifecycle of a Butterfly

Early Development An expressed need or idea Concept or product development Simulator testing Closed environment deployment

Introduction to Market Pilot field implementation Acceptance for use Small-scale field implementation Surrogate or anecdotal findings Simple analysis of small-scale implementations

Evolution of Knowledge Simple analysis of small-scale implementations Several implementations, one agency Implementation by several, multiple environments Statistically-rigorous evaluation of safety performance

Understood and Accepted Safety performance quantified with confidence Performance communicated Potential wide scale application Traveling public benefits

Speed of Life Cycle IDEA5 Star CMF ? ? ?

Need Increased information sharing Knowledge of unrelated installations Ways to Speed Life Cycle Tracking Strategy/technology Opportunity Current implementation status Current monitoring status

Potential Tracking Table Strategy or Technology Potential Opportunity Current Implementation Status Current Monitoring Strategy XYZ Strategy is designed to prevent run-off-road crashes Strategy implemented in one State (NC) at five sites NCDOT is conducting a before-after study of the impact of the strategy on speeds. Results expected in August Strategy QRS Strategy is designed to increase the visibility of pedestrians at unsignalized crossings Strategy was demonstrated at ATSSA meeting. It has not been installed in U.S. Vendor has keep in communication with FHWA regarding U.S. installations Strategy JKLStrategy is designed to increase the conspicuity of traffic signals Strategy is installed in five States (TX, NC, SC, PA, and MI), totaling 450 deployments Wayne State University is conducted a rigorous EB evaluation. Results expected in January 2015.

Potential Sources of Information Trade shows, listservs, anecdotal FHWA Request for Experimentation, anecdotal, presentations Research in progress database, HSIP process, internal State databases CMF Clearinghouse, national reports and articles

Potential Methods to Speed Life Cycle Targeted search Crowdsourcing Leveraging HSIP database Combination approach Others?

Potential Mechanism: Targeted Search Directed effort to identify and track new strategies and innovation Potential sources Trade shows Reviews of publicly available vendor materials Monitoring or querying list serves Survey Advantages? Disadvantages?

Potential Mechanism: Crowdsourcing “Crowdsourcing is a process that involves outsourcing tasks to a distributed group of people. This process can occur both online and offline.The difference between crowdsourcing and ordinary outsourcing is that a task or problem is outsourced to an undefined public rather than a specific body, such as paid employees.”outsourcing

Discussion Will this improve the “life cycle” of a strategy from idea to CMF? Any existing mechanisms to track new strategies or technologies? What other methods should be considered?

CMF Gap Analysis Resource Database Prioritization Database Prioritized List of Needs What do we have? What do we need? Where do we go?

Resource Database – What We Have CMF Clearinghouse Transportation Research Board Research-in- Progress Other research in progress (Evaluation of Low Cost Safety Improvements, NCHRP 17-56) Final tally: CMFs existing or in development

Prioritization Database - What We Need CMF Most Wanted List CMF Clearinghouse focus groups and webinars Lists of experimental installations (MUTCD) Unevaluated countermeasures from other research studies (NCHRP 17-56) Practitioner questions (state safety engineers list, AASHTO forum) State ballots from ELCSI-PFS Technical Advisory Committee meetings

Prioritization Database - What We Need NCHRP Toward Zero Deaths strategy document Knowledge gaps identified in Highway Safety Manual and NCHRP 617 FHWA Pedestrian Strategic Safety Plan AAA long range research agenda TRB committee problem statements FHWA Safety R&D ITS Safety Program Austroads identified research needs

Prioritization Categories Priority# of Sources Identifying Need Existing or Forthcoming CMFs 1MultipleNone 2MultipleLimited or Non-exact Match 3OneNone 4OneLimited or Non-exact Match 5One or MultipleExisting High Quality or Exact Match CMF Available

Priority 1 Results by Category Pedestrians (3) Access Management (1) Alignment (1) Bicyclists (1) Intersection Geometry (1) On-street Parking (1)

Priority 2 Results by Category Roadway (5) Intersection Geometry (4) Delineation (3) Pedestrians (3) Roadside (2) Access Management (1) Advanced Technology and ITS (1)

CMF Stakeholder Meeting Held May 28 at TFHRC Forum for CMF stakeholders Communicate ongoing efforts Identify opportunities for collaboration Two primary groups CMF user community (transportation agencies and practitioners) CMF research and development community (individuals and agencies who plan, fund, direct, and carry out CMF research).

CMF Stakeholder Meeting FHWA FMCSA ITE AAA ATSSA NHTSA Road Safety Foundation IIHS AASHTO NCHRP TRB SHRP2 CAIT Several State DOTs Opportunity to Speed the Life Cycle!

CMF Stakeholder Meeting Stakeholder CMF ‐ related activities CMF research needs (gap analysis) Resources (e.g., data) to support the development of CMFs. Research methods, technologies, and innovation Overarching themes and future opportunities

Opportunities - CMFs Identify needs Disseminate needs Track ongoing research Improve CMF research Speed and safety Combine multiple CMFs Transferability

Opportunities – Data and Methods Shared support for quality data Supplemental and Emerging Databases Large Truck Crash Causation Study (LTCCS) NHTSA’s State Data System (SDS) Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) IIHS Assessment Methods: U.S. Road Assessment Program (usRAP) FMCSA Risk Models Systemic Safety Analysis Value of Advanced Methods

Opportunities – Communication CMF Clearinghouse Research in Progress (RiP) Database TRB Annual and Midyear Meetings SHRP2 ITE

Questions?

Safety Data Resources Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) General Estimates System (GES) Crashworthiness Data System (CDS) National Motor Vehicles Crash Causation Study (NMVCCS) Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) Motor Carriers Management Information System (MCMIS) Federal Transit Administration National Transit Database (NTD) National EMS Information System (NEMSIS) SHRP2 Naturalistic Driving and Roadway Databases National Park Service Service-wide Traffic Accident Reporting System (STARS) Highway Safety Information System (HSIS)

Database Who houses / maintains? What is the spatial coverage? Does the database include all crashes for the coverage area (i.e., population) or a sample? What is the vehicle type coverage? FARSNHTSA All qualifying fatal crashes within the 50 States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico Population of fatal crashesAll vehicle types GESNHTSA 60 sites that reflect the geography, roadway mileage, population, and traffic density of U.S. SampleAll vehicle types CDSNHTSA 24 sites that reflect the geography, roadway mileage, population, and traffic density of U.S. Sample Crashes involving at least one light vehicle <10,000 lbs. NMVCCSNHTSA 24 primary sampling units (PSUs), centered on large cities/counties/metro areas; include cities and counties in AL, AZ, CA, CO, FL, IL, IN, MD, MI, NE, NJ, NY, NC, PA, TN, TX, WA. Sample Crashes involving at least one light vehicle <10,000 lbs. CIRENNHTSA 3 medical centers and 3 engineering centers in AL, MD, VA, WA, and WI. Population of serious injury crashesAll vehicle types MCMISFMCSA All qualifying crashes involving motor carriers with USDOT numbers within the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico Population of reported crashes involving commercial motor carriers (truck & bus) and hazardous material shippers Trucks, buses, passenger cars and light trucks with USDOT numbers or hazmat placard STARSNPS All motor vehicle collisions that occur within National Park Service jurisdiction. Population of reported crashesAll vehicle types NTDFTANational transit-related reportable incidents. Population of transit-related reportable incidents Various types of transit vehicles NEMSIS NHTSA Office of EMS National repository for EMS data. As of 2012, there were 42 states and territories contributing to the dataset. Sample of EMS events reported by states All vehicle types SHRP2TRB6 states (FL, IN, NY, NC, PA, and WA).Sample of drivers and roadwayPassenger vehicles HSISFHWAStatewide for CA, IL, ME, MN, NC, OH, and WA Population of reported crashes, primarily on State-maintained system All vehicle types

Inventory