Climate Change and Transportation and Land Use Planning John P. Poorman October 2006

Can transportation and land use planning mitigate the rate of global climate change?

1. We must respect the laws of physics, economics, politics and household behavior.

2. What is possible is not always probable; what is improbable is not necessarily impossible.

3. Public policy typically seeks to accomplish a goal while simultaneously preserving the status quo.

4. American preference is to look to technology for solutions that preserve the status quo.

5. Significant technological change comes unexpectedly and carries unintended consequences.

6. Household behavior is remarkably consistent – if observed at the level of core relationships.

Can transportation and land use planning mitigate the rate of global climate change?

Transp & Land Use Can it reduce climate change? ?

Transp & Land Use Can it Reduce climate change? ? Mitigate impacts of? ?

MacroPolicy Local Planning Can it Reduce climate change? ?? Mitigate impacts of? ??

Market Forces MacroPolicy Local Planning Can it Reduce climate change? ??? Mitigate impacts of? ???

Market Forces MacroPolicy Local Planning Can it Reduce climate change? ??? Mitigate impacts of? ??? Will it Reduce climate change? ??? Mitigate impacts of? ???

Market Forces MacroPolicy Local Planning Can it Reduce climate change? NoYesYes Mitigate impacts of? ??? Will it Reduce climate change? ??? Mitigate impacts of? ???

GHG Emission Reductions State Energy Plans: 18 – 33% State Energy Plans: 18 – 33% Arizona: 72% from policy; 28% planning Arizona: 72% from policy; 28% planning Todd Litman Todd Litman “Win-win” strategies: 26 – 62% split between policy and planning. “Win-win” strategies: 26 – 62% split between policy and planning.

Win-Win Strategies Directly Affects Travel? Total Reductions Cumulative Reductions LowMiddleHighLowMiddleHigh Planning Reforms No 10.0%15.0%20.0%0.0%0%0.0% Regulatory Reforms No 1.0%2.3%4.0%0.0%0%0.0% TDM Programs No 4.0%6.0%8.0%0.0%0%0.0% Commute Trip Reduction Yes 0.8%1.8%3.0%0.7%2%3.0% Commuter Financial Incentives Partly 1.5%3.5%6.0%1.5%4%5.9% Fuel Taxes - Tax Shifting Yes 5.0%10.0%15.0%6.4%13%20.0% Pay-As-You-Drive Pricing Yes 8.0%10.6%13.5%13.9%22%30.8% Road/Congestion Pricing Yes 0.5%1.5%3.0%14.3%24%32.9% Parking Management Yes 2.0%3.4%5.0%16.0%26%36.3% Parking Pricing Yes 4.0%6.8%10.0%19.4%31%42.6% Transit and Rideshare Improvements Yes 2.0%4.5%8.0%21.0%34%47.2% HOV Priority Yes 0.5%1.1%2.0%21.4%35%48.3% Walking and Cycling Improvements Yes 1.0%2.3%4.0%22.2%36%50.3% Smart Growth Reforms Yes 3.0%8.0%15.0%24.5%41%57.8% Location Efficient Housing and Mortgages No 1.0%2.3%4.0%24.5%41%57.8% Mobility Management Marketing Yes 1.5%3.0%5.0%25.7%43%59.9% Freight Transport Management Yes 0.3%1.0%2.3%25.9%43%60.8% School and Campus Trip Management Yes 0.3%0.8%1.5%26.0%44%61.4% Carsharing Yes 0.1%0.3%0.6%26.1%44%61.6% Traffic Calming Yes 0.1%0.2%0.4%26.2%44%61.8%

Market Forces MacroPolicy Local Planning Can it Reduce climate change? NoYesYes Mitigate impacts of? ??? Will it Reduce climate change? NoMaybeNo Mitigate impacts of? ???

US Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan: Transportation Sector years20-40 years40-60 years

Market Forces MacroPolicy Local Planning Can it Reduce climate change? NoYesYes Mitigate impacts of? YesYesYes Will it Reduce climate change? NoMaybeNo Mitigate impacts of? ???

Market Forces MacroPolicy Local Planning Can it Reduce climate change? NoYesYes Mitigate impacts of? YesYesYes Will it Reduce climate change? NoMaybeNo Mitigate impacts of? YesMaybeMaybe

In sum Separate can from will Separate can from will Distinguish mitigate climate change from mitigate impacts of climate change Distinguish mitigate climate change from mitigate impacts of climate change Separate market, policy and planning Separate market, policy and planning Respect “truths” in judging potential benefits and outcomes Respect “truths” in judging potential benefits and outcomes

In sum Conclusions Conclusions Policy greater tool to mitigate climate change. Policy greater tool to mitigate climate change. Policy, planning may help adjust to climate change. May need long lead time. Policy, planning may help adjust to climate change. May need long lead time. Market forces may lag – good to help adjust to but weak ally in mitigating climate change. Market forces may lag – good to help adjust to but weak ally in mitigating climate change.