Impact of changes in multi-pillar pension systems in CEE countries on individual pension wealth dr Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak (SGH) Poznań, 24 September 2015

Main question How changes in the multi-pillar structure of pensions systems in CEE affect individual pension level in the future? Is this outcome different depending on age and wage level of workers?

Selected features of pension systems in 8 CEE countries Public pension scheme Retirement age Mandatory funded contributions Enactment date Who participates BulgariaDB60/55  63/602%  5%2002 Mandatory for all workers <42 EstoniaDB60/55  63/636% (4% +2%)2002Mandatory for new entrants Latvia Notional accounts 60/55  62/622%  8%2001 Mandatory for new and workers < 30, voluntary for LithuaniaDB60/55  62.5/602.5%  5.5%2004 Voluntary for current and new workers HungaryDB60/55  62/626%  8%1998Mandatory for new entrants Poland Notional accounts 65/60 (60/55)  67/67 7.3%1999 Mandatory for new and workers < 30, voluntary for RomaniaDB62/57  65/602%  3%2008 Mandatory for new and workers < 35, voluntary for Slovak Republic Points60/53-57  62/629%2005 Mandatory for born after 1983 Source: A.Schwartz and O.Arias, The Inverting Pyramid (2014)

Changes in funded DC schemes after 2008 Reversals BulgariaNo change. Estonia Temporary reduction with off-set. 6% contribution rate cut to 0% between June 2009 and January 2011 and shifted to PAYG. Gradual increase from Rate set at 3% in January 2011 and 6% in January In at 8% to offset missed contributions Latvia Partial reduction. 8% contribution rate reduced to 2% in May Rates increased to 4% from 2013 Lithuania Partial reduction. 5.5% contribution rate reduced to 2% in July Rates further lowered to 1.5% in January 2012 and 2.5% in Change to 3% (2%+ 1%) January 2014, voluntary participation. Additional contribution at 2% in Hungary Permanent reversal. Contribution rate reduced to 0% in January 2011 assets transferred to the mandatory PAYG system. Poland Permanent reduction and partial reversal. Contribution rate reduced to 2.3% in May From February 2014 contribution at 2.92%, in February 2014 assets invested in government bonds transferred to PAYG scheme and redeemed. In 2014 system made opt-out and opt-in in specified time slots. Assets from FF transferred gradually to PAYG 10 years prior to retirement. Romania Temporary reduction. Reduction in planned growth path of contribution rate from 2% to 6%. Rate froze at 2%, started to increase from 2011 at annual rate of 0,5pp. Slovakia Permanent reduction. 9% contribution reduced to 4% in Funded scheme opt-out and opt-in system. Source: A.Schwartz and O.Arias, The Inverting Pyramid (2014) updated by authors

Calculating change in the pension wealth

Assumptions

Results

Change in pension wealth for average wage earner

Conclusions Reversals of the multi-pillar scheme have different outcomes on expected pension levels, which depends mainly on the design of the PAYG scheme In the case of higher pension expectations, the change leads also to higher level of implicit liabilities, which means that the change increases total public liabilities (Slovakia) In the case of lower pension expectations, the change leads to similar level of public liabilities, but there is an efficiency loss as r>g (Poland)

Conclusions The design of the matching part of the pay-as-you-go system affects the potential pension wealth, which may have influenced some of the individual decisions (in those countries which left a choice to pension system participants). These findings should be seen only as one of the outcomes of the recent wave of pension systems changes. One should not forget that the change in the proportion of contributions affects the risk diversification of financing future pensions. Recent modifications in funded systems increased the reliance of future pension income on wage-based financing, which will be more difficult to achieve given projected labour supply shortages due to the population ageing in the future. The changes also resulted in a loss of society trust towards state- organised pension system and reliability of accumulated pension savings.

Thank you Research included in this presentation was financed from research grant number UMO-2012/05/B/HS4/04206 from National Science Centre in Poland