Bias in Polling Questions

Measuring Public Opinion Random sample – in this type of sample, every individual has a known and random chance of being selected: –the questions must be asked in clear, unemotional language –people must have some knowledge of the things they are asked about –for any pop. over 500,000, at least 1,065 respondents are necessary to provide a 95% confidence, +/- 3% –each person must have an equal chance of being interviewed –even the most accurate polls have some sampling error – the relative accuracy of a public opinion poll

What is wrong with each of these methods? Calling survey participants on the phone only from noon until 3 pm. Asking survey participants to call in their vote. Polling only a retirement home to gauge the nation’s views on health care. Asking bald men what kind of shampoo they prefer.

What is wrong with each of these polling questions? “Are you in favor of killing babies?” in an abortion survey. “Would you say that Barack Obama clobbered John McCain in the last election?” in a post-election poll. “Do you like the President?” in a presidential approval rating. “Whom did you vote for in the last election?” to assess partisan affiliation.

Polling Bias Types Testimonial - Implied endorsements from celebrities. Example Question: Did you know that Pat Robertson does not believe John McCain will make a good president? Do you plan to vote for Rudy Giuliani or John McCain in the Republican primary? Mudslinging – Name-calling or groundless assertions about another candidate. Example Question: Do you favor the economic policies of the Democrats, which will preserve Social Security, or the policies of the Republicans, which will destroy our Social Security system and leave many of our elderly citizens homeless?

Transfer – Use of popular symbols or causes to create a positive connotation for a candidate or the use of negative or controversial symbols and causes to create a negative connotation of the competition’s candidate. Example Question: Knowing that Texas has one of the highest rates of child poverty in the US, who do you think will be the best candidate for president in 2000, Al Gore or George Bush?

Card stacking – Use of statistics in a one-sided manner; the omission of information that is crucial to drawing an informed conclusion. Example: Democratic television ads showing former teachers and college administrators listing republican George Allen’s failings concerning education. What the ads do not show is the reasoning behind why he didn’t support certain bills, and that many of the former teachers and college administrators are disgruntled democrats who lost their appointed jobs under Allen’s republican administration.

Glittering Generalities – Use of very vague words or phrases that may have a positive effect on the viewer and appeal to a variety of interests. Example Question: Do you believe that we need a Washington insider or a fresh new face from outside Washington to lead our country through the next four years? Contrast question or Sandwich question – Juxtaposing positive images of one’s candidate with negative images of the competition’s candidate. Example Question: Al Gore trusts the people of the United States, not big corporations. Do you believe Bush, who calls himself a “Compassionate Conservative” or Gore, who is fighting for the people not the powerful, will make a better president for most Americans?